VZCZCXRO7062
PP RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #3800/01 3651341
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P 301341Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4514
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/CDR USNORTHCOM PETERSON AFB CO PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 003800 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: MEXICO'S PRD MODERATES CLOSE RANKS AT EXPENSE OF 
AMLO AND SMALL PARTIES 
 
REF: MEXICO 3594 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  The new moderate leadership of the 
Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD), on the heels of its 
victory in the internal elections (reftel), closed ranks in 
recent weeks at the expense of small parties and former party 
standard bearer Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO).  At its 
last National Executive Council meeting, the PRD decided not 
to form any political alliances for the July 2009 midterm 
elections, not even with the tiny Social Democratic Party 
(PSD), and expel any members who support candidates outside 
the party including AMLO.  The PRD also complained to the 
Federal Electoral Institute that Convergencia and the 
Worker's Party (PT) should not be able to use the same name 
for their coalition--the Broad Progressive Front (FAP)--as 
the three parties had used previously.  Other members of the 
Mexican left called for unity to avoid disaster in the next 
elections.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Moderates Consolidate their Position 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) The PRD National Executive Council Meetings November 
29-30 and December 13-14 helped moderates consolidate gains 
in the aftermath of the disputed internal elections (reftel). 
 Newly anointed PRD President Jesus Ortega of the New Left 
Faction (NLF) announced at the first meeting that the party 
would conduct an investigation into irregularities of the 
March 16 disputed internal elections, which according to 
party insider Maricarmen Soria was designed to consolidate 
his presidency, find out what went wrong, and warn the United 
Left Faction (ULF) led by Alejandro Encinas and AMLO that it 
had better shape up or face party sanctions.  At the second 
meeting the party decided not to form any political alliances 
in the 2009 federal and state elections.  Ortega later 
announced the decision by the Council to take away membership 
of anyone who supports candidates from other parties, 
including AMLO, which is stipulated in the party by-laws. 
 
AMLO Under Fire 
--------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) AMLO in recent weeks faced increasing criticism from 
within the PRD.  Carlos Navarrete, PRD Coordinator of the 
Senate, said in a newspaper interview that AMLO was not a 
viable candidate because he is rejected by half the voters. 
The office of the brother of AMLO, Pio Lopez Obrador, 
released a statement indicating that AMLO would leave the 
party on January 25, which he later recanted.  PRD Senator 
Antonio Soto said that AMLO should decide one way or the 
other whether he is leaving the party.  However, Senator 
Ricardo Monreal, who recently left the PRD for the PT in 
order to continue the PT's representation in the Senate, 
called for an end to bitter infighting among the Mexican 
left.  Deputy PRD Juan Guerra said that PRD party unity was 
now the priority and told Poloff the PRD needs all factions, 
including AMLO and his supporters.  Despite his recent 
actions, Ortega said that he wants to work with AMLO to 
resolve any differences. 
 
Smaller Parties Weakened 
------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) In the absence of an alliance with the PRD, 
prospects for the smaller parties weakened in the last few 
weeks.  The leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), 
Jorge Carlos Diaz Cuervo, lamented that the PRD decided not 
to form an alliance with PSD after weeks of discussions with 
PRD leaders, which may mean the end of the PSD as a viable 
political party.  A frustrated Diaz Cuervo called the PRD 
nothing more than a recycled PRI party run by party bosses 
and announced he would seek a federal investigation into how 
ex-candidate AMLO had been financing his political movement 
since 2006, alluding to the widespread rumor that the 
movement was subsidized by Mexico City government funds. 
Meanwhile, the Executive Office of Political Parties of the 
Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) ruled that the coalition 
between Convergencia and the Worker's Party (PT) could not 
use the name FAP.  The Secretary General of Convergencia, 
Pedro Jimenez, said the decision would be appealed to the 
Judicial Branch's federal electoral tribunal.  PRD had 
 
MEXICO 00003800  002 OF 002 
 
 
complained to IFE that the name of the coalition, which no 
longer includes the PRD, should be distinct from that of the 
previous electoral cycle when the FAP consisted of the PRD, 
Convergencia and PT. 
 
¶5. (SBU) COMMENT:  Recent actions by the ruling moderate 
faction of the PRD--an internal investigation, the rejection 
of any alliances, the ejection of supporters of other 
parties, a complaint about the name of the alliance between 
Convergencia and PT, and criticism of AMLO--have made it more 
difficult for AMLO and the small parties in recent weeks. 
PSD, by many accounts, is in danger of disappearing 
altogether next year.  Convergencia and PT, who will have a 
harder time campaigning if they cannot use the FAP brand 
(which carried both parties and the PRD to electoral gains in 
2006), may also lose their registration if they do not garner 
two percent of Mexico's voters next July.  If Ortega sticks 
to his word, AMLO will have a hard time campaigning for 
candidates from other parties within the PRD.  Director of 
AMLO's Social Movements Ricardo Ruiz told Poloff that AMLO 
may request a temporary absence from the PRD to do so.  With 
no alliance and a deepening internal division in the PRD, 
prospects continue to worsen for the Mexican left.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American 
Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
BASSETT