VZCZCXRO9510
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #3586/01 3401232
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 051232Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4246
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEAHLA/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
RHMFIUU/CDR USNORTHCOM PETERSON AFB CO
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 003586 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM SNAR KCRM MX
SUBJECT: NARCO-VIOLENCE SPIKES; BORDER AFFECTED 
 
REF: MEXICO 3498 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:   Mexican media redoubled their focus on 
the country's spiral of violence, noting that 
&drug-related8 killings had either approached or topped 
5000 for the year, so far.   While tallying the actual number 
of such killings is a highly inexact science here, it is 
clearly evident that the past several months have been 
particularly bloody.  Moreover, geographic patterns that 
emerged some months ago are holding ) and strongly suggest 
that the cartels remain engaged in a violent struggle over 
key trafficking routes into the U.S. Much of the violence is 
concentrated along the U.S. border, and in particular in the 
states of Chihuahua and Baja California.  Although Calderon 
has managed to maintain relatively high levels of popular 
support nationwide, there is increasing concern in the border 
region that his counternarcotics operations are not working. 
End Summary. 
 
Narco-Homicides Said to Top 5000 
-------------------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) The running tally of cartel-related slayings in 2008 
is on track to easily double 2007,s figure of approximately 
2,500 which was itself a record in Mexico.  The GOM's own 
statistics through September register 3,636 narco-related 
homicides, and local newspaper Reforma tallies 669 in October 
and 559 through November 28 contributing to a figure of some 
4,864 thru the year.  The six Mexican border states account 
for more than 50 percent of these types of killings, with 
more than 1400 (30 percent) in Chihuahua alone ) a dramatic 
increase from approximately 300 in 2007. (Note:  The total 
body count in the state stands at 1900 for the year, with 
over 1400 in Ciudad Juarez alone.  End note.)  Baja 
California has the third highest narco-death-toll following 
Sinaloa. 
 
Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua 
------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The state of Chihuahua, accounting for close to a 
third of the entire country's drug-related killings, has not 
registered a significant uptick in killings over recent 
months.  Rather, violence has occurred at such disturbingly 
high rates beginning in March 2008, and now only intermittent 
incidents of a particularly gruesome nature (such as two 
Thanksgiving weekend mass killings which resulted in 15 
deaths) seem to capture the broader public's attention. 
Historically, Chihuahua has been a violent state.  Law 
enforcement (LE) sources, however, attribute the origin of 
Chihuahua's most recent wave of violence to a decision in 
December 2007 on the part of the Sinaloa Cartel, under 
Joaquin &el Chapo8 Guzman to take over the state of 
Chihuahua and the Juarez &plaza8 from the Carrillo Fuentes 
drug trafficking organization (aka Juarez Cartel).  (Note:  A 
previous cooperative arrangement between the Sinaloa and 
Juarez cartels fell apart beginning in September 2004, when 
the Sinaloa Cartel was alleged to have directed the murder of 
Rodolfo Carrillo Fuentes and his wife in Culiacan, Sinaloa. 
 
¶4. (SBU) As the cartels have found it more difficult to 
transport narcotics through the Juarez &plaza,8 they have 
branched out into other forms of criminality in order to meet 
their expenses.  In 2008, auto theft has doubled from 2007,s 
already record-setting number to 15,000 incidents.  Bank 
robberies have risen from six in 2007 to 78 in 2008.  There 
were no reported incidents of kidnapping in 2006, and 9 in 
¶2007.  The number of reported kidnappings stands at 36 for 
2008, an many more are thought to have gone unreported. 
Incidents of extortion have increased dramatically as well. 
Threats and extortion attempts against business owners and 
even school teachers (in which criminals insist that teachers 
turn over their year-end bonuses), have become a constant 
worry. 
 
¶5. (SBU) In addition, tit-for-tat attacks between the Sinaloa 
cartel and the Juarez-ABLO-Zeta cartel alliance have created 
a chaotic &free-for-all8 atmosphere, where local gangs ) 
such as the Barrio Aztecas -- are increasingly engaging in 
illicit activities. Disturbingly, consulate law enforcement 
officials and contacts, particularly businessmen who have 
sought safe haven in El Paso have reported some spillover 
north of the border. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The violence in Ciudad Juarez and throughout the 
rest of the state has contributed rifts between the federal 
and local government, with local authorities complaining that 
 
MEXICO 00003586  002 OF 003 
 
 
their resources are strapped and accusing the federal 
government of ignoring their plight.  In October, Chihuahua 
Governor Jose Reyes Baeza Terrazas complained that the 
federal Attorney General,s Office (PGR) had not investigated 
a single killing in the state in 2008.  Baeza and other 
elected officials also question whether the Army, which is 
deployed in large numbers but rarely engages directly with 
cartel shooters, is committed to restoring security in the 
state.  Meanwhile, on November 16, representatives of the 
business sector, religious leaders ) both Roman Catholic and 
evangelical, university rectors, and 62 of the state's 67 
mayors wrote an open letter to President Calderon describing 
the state's murder rate as completely out of control and 
calling on the President to order the Mexican Army to engage 
in more direct and aggressive action against the cartels. 
 
Tijuana, Baja California 
------------------------ 
 
7.(SBU) This past weekend (November 28-30), a total of 42 
people were murdered in Tijuana including nine decapitated 
bodies discovered on November 29. Consulate law enforcement 
officials believe the weekend at least part of the killing 
spree was prompted by the killing of a 25 year-old woman 
thought to be the friend/girlfriend of a cartel member. 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) Baja California Governor Jose Guadalupe Osuna Millan 
expressed his concern in August about a renewed surge in 
cartel-related violence in Tijuana after weeks of relative 
quiet.  In the past, the victims have generally had 
narco-trafficking links, but more recently the killings have 
become a bit more indiscriminate with a 3 year-old and 13 
year-old caught up in the latest violence.  Much of the 
violence is attributed to less mature, lower tier 
players/leaders of cartel factions (i.e. Arellano Felix's son 
and nephew Teo) as the GOM as taken out top-tier leaders. 
The US Consul General notes that tourism to the city from the 
U.S. side has plummeted and 40 percent of the businesses in 
the tourist district have closed down over the last year. 
Despite the spike in narco-homicides, there is little 
evidence to suggest the violence is spilling over to the 
other side nor that Amcits are being targeted. 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) As part of an effort to clean-up the 2,000 officer 
strong Tijuana police force and restore a sense of order, the 
GOM sent marines, soldiers and federal and state police 
officers onto the streets of Tijuana on November 18, 
replacing the better part of its police in over half of the 
state's nine boroughs, located primarily on the east side 
where much violence has occurred historically.  Once the 
police officers from the east side have been either trained 
or purged, they will return to the streets and the same 
process will be applied to the police on the west side.  The 
mayor of Tijuana Ramos has denied that Tijuana is effectively 
under martial law.  Meanwhile, according to the US Consul 
General in Tijuana, the federal police and military 
replacements seem to be winning the respect of the population 
and extending dominion slowly over the entire city. 
 
Calderon Promises to Fight On 
----------------------------- 
¶10. (SBU) President Calderon appears undeterred in his 
commitment to fight the cartels.  In a November 30 speech, he 
maintained that organized criminal gangs had become powerful 
as a result of past governments, failure to confront 
corruption.  He, on the other hand, was committed to rooting 
out corruption as evidenced by the government's 
anti-corruption initiative &Operation Limpieza8 (See 
reftel) which has produced the arrest of senior law 
enforcement officials over recent months.  Calderon also drew 
attention to record breaking numbers which spoke to the 
effectiveness of his government's two-year efforts to combat 
narcotraffickers ) the arrest of over 53,000 people linked 
to organized crime and the seizure of over 70 tons of 
cocaine, 3,700 tons of marijuana, 28,000 guns and 2,000 
grenades. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) A series of recent high profile arrests ) 
including the October 20 arrest of Sinaloa cartel leader 
Jesus "El Rey" Zambada and the Nov. 7 arrest of Zeta leader 
Jaime "El Hummer" Gonzalez -- has contributed to the spike in 
 
MEXICO 00003586  003 OF 003 
 
 
already high-levels of narco-violence along the border. 
Although we may see a lull during the holiday season 
(December 15 ) January 6), most expect the violence to 
resume shortly after the new year and likely not abate until 
the rival cartels strike a truce or one side wins. Lacking 
confidence in the ability of local police to tackle organized 
crime effectively, the GOM will continue to rely on the 
military to assume a major role in this battle while it seeks 
the adoption of legislation to strengthen security measures 
and reform the police.  The uptick in violence has not hurt 
Calderon's approval ratings which registered 64% in a 
December 1 Reforma poll -- up 2 percentage-points from the 
newspaper's September poll.  Moreover, at least 40% of those 
surveyed said Calderon was doing a good job fighting crime 
and drug gangs ) up from around a third in the September 
survey.  Nevertheless, while Calderon has managed to maintain 
popular support, there is increasing concern in the border 
region ) particularly the state of Chihuahua ) that the 
government's counternarcotics operations are not working.  As 
Mexico heads towards mid-term elections in July 2009 and the 
opposition parties turn up their criticism of the GOM, his 
popularity could take a hit. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American 
Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
BASSETT