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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 001517 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR KRAAIMOORE 
NSC FOR GARCIA 
DEPT PASS USAID - CARDENAS 
DEPT FOR DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM NU
SUBJECT: NICARAGUA: RAAN ELECTIONS OPEN - SAME FRAUD 
EXPECTED 
 
REF: A. MANAGUA 1383 
     ¶B. MANAGUA 1367 
     ¶C. MANAGUA 1136 
 
Classified By: Charge' d' Affairs R. Sanders for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The official kick-off for the North Atlantic 
Autonomous Region (RAAN) municipal elections in seven 
municipalities began on December 4 without major violence. 
The Sandinista Front for National Liberation (FSLN) and the 
Constitutional Liberal Party (PLC) each held separate rallies 
over the weekend of December 6 and 7 in Puerto Cabezas and 
other large cities in the RAAN.  While a unity candidate 
movement has started in Puerto Cabezas, the regional capital, 
our contacts tell us that the FSLN is repeating the same 
election tactics and strategy to steal the vote scheduled for 
January 18, 2009 and will probably succeed despite ongoing 
international and national pressure. END SUMMARY 
 
OPENING EVENTS FOR RAAN ELECTIONS 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (C) December 4 marked the official opening of the RAAN 
municipal election campaign in the seven remaining 
municipalities: Bonanza, Mulukuku, Prinzapolka, Puerto 
Cabezas, Rosita, Siuna, and Waspam.  As previously reported 
(see Refs), the campaign and political maneuvering has been 
underway for months.  FSLN supporters held a large public 
rally of 2,000 participants in the municipal park on 
Saturday, December 6.  The next day, Sunday, December 7, over 
1,000 PLC supporters and other liberal party supporters held 
a public rally in the same Puerto Cabezas park. 
 
UNITY CANDIDATE MOVEMENT BEGINS IN PUERTO CABEZAS 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶3. (C) According to public opinion polls, if the Liberal 
political parties joined forces, they could beat the FSLN and 
Yatama in a free and fair election.  To that end, during the 
PLC rally in Puerto Cabezas on December 7 the Nicaraguan 
Resistance Party (PRN) mayoral candidate Alvaro Ramirez 
called on his supporters to vote for the PLC mayor candidate 
Orson "Blas" Coleman, a former Contra leader and a leader in 
the Yatama-non FSLN party (see Ref C).  Ramirez had told 
EmbOff privately (see RefTel B) that he was willing to give 
up his candidacy to form an opposition unity ticket for 
mayor.  In announcing his support for the PLC candidate, 
Ramirez has not officially renounced his candidacy nor asked 
that his name be replaced with another person, in order to 
prevent the FSLN-controlled regional election council from 
naming a new candidate in his stead.  Another opposition 
candidate, Victor Alvarado, from the Nicaraguan Liberal 
Alliance (ALN) party also privately expressed his desire to 
withdraw from the race to support the PLC candidate, but has 
not done so.  Our contacts tell us that in mid-January the 
ALN candidate would follow a similar strategy of calling on 
supporters to vote for the PLC candidate without officially 
withdrawing from the race, thus preventing the FSLN from 
illegally substituting a new candidate onto the ballot. 
However, our contacts also tell us that the PLC candidate has 
used an aggressive radio attack campaign against the ALN 
candidate in Puerto Cabezas, instead of Yatama and FSLN 
candidates, which could backfire on a future unity ticket in 
January. 
 
NEW ELECTIONS - SAME FRAUD EXPECTED 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4. (C) Our contacts tell us that most of the FSLN supporters 
in the December 6 rally in Puerto Cabezas were bused in from 
surrounding communities, and enticed to participate through 
offers of free medicine and medical check-ups, Christmas 
gifts for children, and personal loans by the FSLN party. 
According to our contacts, Minister of the Fishing Institute 
Steadman Fagoth has been organizing the FSLN loan program, 
offering loans up to $5,000 for fishermen and smaller "quick" 
loans of $300 to other individuals in exchange for signing a 
list to support the FSLN candidates.  (NOTE: On its face, a 
$5,000 loan to a fisherman would not seem a large amount, 
however, in the RAAN, where unemployment is more than 50% and 
the average fisherman earns $250 a month, it represents 
 
MANAGUA 00001517  002 OF 002 
 
 
almost two-year,s salary. END NOTE)  Liberal candidates in 
Waspam were also at a disadvantage because the Yatama-FSLN 
alliance controlled the local radio station and would not 
grant any airtime for liberal political ads.  Contacts also 
told us that a group of up to 100 people from the Managua 
mayor's office and affiliated with the FSLN were traveling to 
the RAAN before the election to organize shock troops and 
guarantee the FSLN victory.  This effort is allegedly led by 
Rudolfo Rafael Castillo, who is the second national secretary 
of the FSLN, and a member of First Lady Rosario Murillo's 
"defenders of the vote" which also include Francisco Guzman, 
Lenin Cerna and Francisco Lopez (FSLN party treasurer). 
 
BIAS OBSERVATION TOO 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶5. (C) Media reports that only two local groups may receive 
election observation accreditation in the RAAN contest - the 
Center for the Development of the Atlantic Coast (Cedeca) and 
the RAAN Moravian Church.  Our contacts believe that both 
groups would be biased in their observation and that it would 
only serve to rubberstamp the election fraud that the FSLN 
party is preparing to unleash in the RAAN.  While Cedeca is 
an NGO that has performed election observation in the past, 
it is closely aligned with the FSLN.  The director of Cedeca, 
Debby Hudson, has already called the embassy asking for USG 
funding to support their 250 election observers and claims 
that unlike other domestic election observation organizations 
that were not accredited for the November 9 elections, namely 
IPADE and Etica y Transparencia, she already has a verbal 
guarantee of accredation from the Supreme Election Council 
(CSE).  (NOTE: During the cable clearance Debby Hudson 
contacted the Embassy again to inform us that she had already 
secured funding for observation from an "organization that 
always supports us" - referring to the FSLN party.  END NOTE) 
 Meanwhile the RAAN Moravian Church has no previous election 
observation experience and includes church leaders who have 
FSLN-leaning sympathies.  Even with training, it is widely 
believed that the Moravian Church observers would not be 
aggressive in pointing out election fraud.  IPADE has also 
asked publicly and privately for accreditation to observe the 
elections in the RAAN without any response from the CSE. 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
 
¶6. (C) The FSLN continues to ignore calls by the 
international community and domestic opposition to hold free 
and fair elections in the upcoming RAAN municipal elections 
set for January 18, 2009.  FSLN leaders, with their Yatama 
allies are following the same playbook in bribing voters to 
support their candidates and putting into place shock groups 
and biased election observers to assure a FSLN sweep in most 
if not all of the seven RAAN municipal contests.  Liberal 
candidates face enormous challenges in mounting their 
campaigns, but are forming unity tickets to increase their 
advantage.  We believe that in a free and fair contest, the 
FSLN candidates would handily win in Bonanza, Rosita; that 
Yatama candidates would win in Prinzapolka; and that Liberal 
candidates would win in Siuna, Mulukuku, Waspam and possibly 
Puerto Cabezas.  However, all indications are that a free and 
fair election in the RAAN is unlikely. 
SANDERS