VZCZCXRO6308
PP RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHMD #1309/01 3501152
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 151152Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY MADRID
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5770
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHLA/AMCONSUL BARCELONA 3711
RHMCSUU/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 001309 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/WE:SAMSON,ZERDECKI AND EEB/IFD/OMA 
TREASURY FOR OIA/OEE/W.LINDQUIST 
COMMERCE FOR 4212/DON CALVERT 
ENERGY FOR EERE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV ENRG SP
SUBJECT: MADRID ECONOMIC WEEKLY, DEC 9-12 
 
REF: MADRID 1289 
 
MADRID 00001309  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Contents 
 
ECON: IMF Report Suggests Continued Contraction in 2009 
ECON: Housing Starts to Reach 50-Year Low 
EFIN: GOS Buys Over 7 Billion Euros in Mortgage-Backed Debt 
EFIN: Telefonica Gets Sole Use of High-Performance Fiber 
Optic Lines 
ENRG/EINV: Iberdrola, GM Europe to Study Electric Car 
Infrastructure 
 
 
IMF Report Suggests Continued Contraction in 2009 
 
1.(U) The IMF released on December 9 the executive summary of 
its Title IV consultations report, which predicts that output 
will decrease by at least 1 percent in 2009.  The report 
praises the government's aggressive fiscal policy measures as 
well as Spain's strong banking retail model.  However, it 
asserts that deeper structural changes are needed for Spain's 
economy to recover in the medium term, including Spain's 
inflexible labor market policies, which include wage indexing 
and inflexible layoff policies.  Without comprehensive 
structural reform, the IMF warns that Spain could place 
itself in a hard-to-escape situation of low growth and high 
unemployment in the medium term.  President Zapatero is 
quoted as saying that it is not infrequent for well-respected 
international organizations to be incorrect in their 
predictions. (IMF, 12/9, El Pais 12/12) 
 
Housing Starts to Reach 50-Year Low 
 
2.(U) Housing starts for 2009 will only reach 250,000 
according to industry forecasts, with only 50,000 of those 
starts thought to be taking place in the last six months of 
the year.  These figures are extremely bleak, given that 
housing starts reached 800,000 just two years ago.  Forecasts 
indicate that only 150,000 homes will be built in 2009, the 
lowest number since this data began being monitored in 1960. 
Home prices overall have fallen by 8.8% compared with a year 
ago.  Spain's 10-year housing boom began to slow down in 
mid-2007 when higher interest rates on adjustable-rate 
mortgages, decreasing levels of demand, an oversupply, and 
tighter credit finally took their toll.  This slowdown 
affected the labor market, resulting in burgeoning 
unemployment now estimated at 12.8 percent according to 
Eurostat October figures (about a 50% increase from a year 
ago).  Especially affected are immigrants, many of whom came 
to Spain over the past 10 years to work in the booming 
construction sector.  (El Pais, 12/10) 
 
GOS Buys Over 7 Billion Euros in Mortgage-Backed Debt 
 
3.(U) In what is largely being touted as a success, Spain's 
Treasury bought over 7.2 billion euros in mortgage-backed 
debt from 31 banks December 11 in its second "asset purchase 
auction."  This is in contrast to the November 20 
asset-purchase auction in which less than half of the GOS 
funds offered were taken advantage of.  This stimulus measure 
is aimed at injecting more liquidity into Spain-based banks. 
In total, the GOS expects to purchase up to 50 billion euros 
worth of high-quality asset-backed debt, urging banks that 
take advantage of this program to increase lending to 
families and business.  Experts speculate the heavier demand 
for these funds comes as a result of more favorable interest 
rates, among other reasons. Although the list of banks taking 
advantage program has not yet been made public, the country's 
two largest banks, Banco Santander and BBVA, said they did 
not participate.  (All media 12/12) 
 
Telefonica Gets Sole Use of High-Performance Fiber Optic Lines 
 
4.(U) Local press reports indicate that an informal agreement 
was reached between the EC and Spain's Telecoms regulator, 
the CMT, to allow Telefonica to provide internet access at 
above 30 megabits per second without being required to share 
that high performance network with competitors at wholesale 
prices.  In exchange, the CMT would change a regulation which 
currently designates certain regions in Spain as 
"sufficiently competitive", a designation which frees 
Telefonica from any obligations to competitors in those 
regions.  The press reports are based on conversations that 
took place during a Dec. 9 conference in Barcelona 
 
MADRID 00001309  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
celebrating 10 years of telecoms deregulation.  Despite 10 
years of deregulation, Telefonica, one of Spain's recognized 
"national champions," continues enjoying a dominant, almost 
monopolistic position in Spain.  Telefonica has suggested in 
the past that it might not lay down high performance fiber 
optic lines if it is forced to share those lines with 
competitors.  (All media  12/10) 
 
Iberdrola, GM Europe to Study Electric Car Infrastructure 
 
5.(U) Iberdrola and General Motors Europe signed an agreement 
to study the requirements of a recharging infrastructure for 
plug-in electric cars.  The companies will study in Spain and 
the UK the needs for plug-in sockets and electricity meters 
at homes and offices.  A joint press release said the study 
reflected the companies, interest in encouraging the 
development of electric vehicles like the Chevrolet Volt. 
(GM/Iberdrola Press Release, 12/11) 
AGUIRRE