VZCZCXYZ0008
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMD #1291/01 3441112
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 091112Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY MADRID
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5741

UNCLAS MADRID 001291 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/WE AND FOR LMO LYNNEA SHANE, H 
PLEASE PASS TO GRETA LUNDEBERG, OFFICE OF SENATOR BILL 
NELSON 
PLEASE PASS TO SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE FOR 
CAROLINE TESS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER OREP MARR SP
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL NELSON VISIT TO SPAIN DEC. 
12-13 AND 19-20 
 
REF: SECSTATE 128396 
 
¶1. (U) Embassy Madrid warmly welcomes your visit to Spain. 
U.S.-Spanish relations are strong and based on shared 
interests, including the fight against terrorism, the 
bilateral military relationship, our association in NATO, and 
rapidly expanding economic ties.  The Spaniards you meet will 
be eager to share their assessment of financial developments, 
Latin American issues, and bilateral relations.  Our 
elections were closely followed here, and a strong atmosphere 
of goodwill and optimism has emerged for increasingly closer 
bilateral relations and cooperation. 
 
//BILATERAL RELATIONS// 
 
¶2. (SBU) Spain is an important friend and ally of the U.S., 
and we value its cooperation.  The fights 
against terrorism, narcotics, and human trafficking are 
cornerstones of our bilateral relationship.  Spanish troops 
are carrying out important missions in countries such as 
Afghanistan and Lebanon.  Spain has long fought a domestic 
terrorist threat from the Basque terrorist group ETA and 
suffered tragically from Islamic extremist terrorism in the 
2004 Madrid train bombings.  We need to be innovative in 
finding new and improved avenues for bilateral and 
multilateral cooperation against the threats we both face. 
Since winning a second term in March 2008, President Zapatero 
has publicly and privately stressed his desire to further 
improve bilateral relations.  The relationship will be of 
increasing importance when Spain takes over the EU presidency 
in January 2010. 
 
//POLITICAL BACKGROUND// 
 
¶3. (SBU) President Zapatero's center-left Spanish Socialist 
Workers' Party (PSOE) is seven seats shy of a majority in the 
350-seat congress.  The opposition Popular Party (PP) also 
gained seats in the March 9 general elections and has 
retained losing presidential candidate Mariano Rajoy as its 
leader, though the party has suffered from internal 
divisions. Zapatero kept most of the key players in his 
cabinet in their posts.  Miguel Angel Moratinos has remained 
Minister of Foreign Affairs.  The most prominent change was 
that Carme Chacon became Spain's first-ever female Minister 
of Defense; she is described in the press as a possible 
eventual successor to Zapatero. 
 
//ECONOMIC CONTEXT// 
 
¶4. (SBU) Since Zapatero was re-elected, the Government of 
Spain has faced a deepening economic slump.  After 15 years 
of rapid economic growth, the end last year of a long 
construction boom has led to surging unemployment (almost 13 
percent).  The international credit crisis has aggravated the 
situation, as Spain's high current account deficit leaves it 
dependent on now-scarce crossborder lending.  It is widely 
assumed that the economy is already in a recession, and GDP 
is expected to contract further in 2009.  Months of 
worse-than-predicted economic news have led to widespread 
criticism of Zapatero and his economic policymakers for their 
upbeat predictions during the campaign and for having 
downplayed the economic difficulties long after many others 
were saying Spain was in a crisis.  Despite the economic 
difficulties, Spain has not faced the same financial turmoil 
that other developed countries have seen, and no Spanish 
banks have gone under.  Spain is emerging as one of the 
leading foreign investors in the U.S. in recent years with 
significant investment in the banking, wind and solar power, 
ethanol, road construction, foods, and insurance sectors. 
President Zapatero argued that Spain deserved a place at the 
November 15 G-20 financial summit even though it was not a 
G-20 member.  He made it a matter of national pride to attend 
and succeeded in participating as a result of the 
intervention of French President Sarkozy.  Zapatero has 
spoken often of the importance of coordinated European and 
U.S. action in facing the financial crisis. 
 
//LATIN AMERICA// 
 
¶5. (SBU) Spain wields significant influence in Latin America, 
where its businesses have invested heavily.  Like the U.S., 
Spain wants strong democratic and free market institutions in 
the region.  We have sharply differing views on Cuba, as 
Spain believes it can encourage change via engagement with 
the Castro regime, but we seek the same end result.  Spain is 
home to the second largest Cuban expatriate population after 
the United States, with an estimated 82,000 Cuban nationals. 
 
Spain shares our concerns and generally acts with the 
European Union on democracy and good governance in Bolivia 
and Nicaragua.  On Venezuela, Spain appears to be going ahead 
with the sale of four ocean-going patrol ships and four Coast 
Guard-type high seas patrol ships; plans to sell aircraft to 
Venezuela were scuttled when the U.S. objected to the 
transfer of U.S. technology in the aircraft. 
Spanish-Venezuelan relations are now "normalized" following 
the highly publicized November 2007 IberoAmerican Summit 
during which King Juan Carlos famously told Venezuelan 
President Chavez to "shut up."  Chavez visited Spain and made 
public amends with the King in July 2008.  Spanish companies 
have had major problems with Argentina's government, 
including the nationalizations of Aerolineas Argentinas from 
the Spanish Marsans group and of the private pension funds, 
one of which is owned by BBVA.  Spanish officials have 
expressed hope that the USG will increase engagement with 
Latin America in the coming years, sometimes alleging that it 
was abandoned after 9/11. 
 
//MILITARY AND SECURITY COOPERATION// 
 
¶6. (SBU) Spanish military cooperation is important to the 
U.S.  The southern Spanish bases of Rota and Moron are 
strategic hubs, midway between the U.S. and theaters of 
operation in Afghanistan and Iraq.  Spain has troops in 
Lebanon (roughly 1,100), Afghanistan (780), Kosovo (500), 
Bosnia (260), and a smattering of others in various UN & EU 
observer missions.  Although the Afghan NATO mission is not 
popular with the Spanish public, the GOS clearly expects the 
incoming U.S. Administration to request an increased Spanish 
effort there.  Defense Minister Chacon has talked publicly of 
the need to remove the GOS self-imposed cap of 3,000 military 
deployed overseas, but at the same time GOS officials have 
stressed that the solution in Afghanistan cannot be purely 
military and that a new strategy is needed.  Elsewhere on the 
diplomatic front, Spain in recent years has more often been a 
follower than a leader, looking to stay within EU consensus 
on issues such as Iran and missile defense.  Concerned about 
setting a precedent for Spanish separatists, Spain has not 
recognized Kosovo and declines to train or fund Kosovar 
security forces.  Nonetheless, its commitment to KFOR remains 
firm. Spain is supportive of U.S. efforts towards Middle East 
peace.  Driven by the twin threats of terrorism and illegal 
immigration, Spain is also increasing its engagement with the 
countries of North and Western Africa.  The seizure by Somali 
pirates of a Spanish fishing ship in April led to a ransom 
payment and sparked GOS interest in addressing piracy.  Spain 
is planning to send a frigate and an oiler to join an EU 
mission off Somalia and already has patrol planes operating 
there.  Spain is a good customer for U.S. defense items and 
one of the largest Foreign Military Sales (FMS) customers in 
Europe, with more than $2.58 billion in purchases from 1997 
to 2007.  The Spanish military often favors U.S. equipment, 
and in recent years, Spain has made politically difficult 
decisions to buy U.S.-made combat systems for its S-80 
submarines and F-100 frigates (Spain uses the AEGIS system). 
It also negotiated the purchase of Tomahawk missiles, a deal 
notified to the U.S. Congress in June 2008 but on hold due to 
Spanish defense budget constraints. 
 
//COUNTERTERRORISM COOPERATION// 
 
¶7. (SBU) Spain is an al-Qaeda target and a critical player in 
U.S.-EU counterterrorism efforts due to its proximity to the 
Maghreb and a population that includes more than one million 
Muslims, mostly immigrants.  Senior Al-Qaeda leaders often 
call for attacks to recapture the medieval "Al Andalus," and 
the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla in North Africa are 
a fixation for Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb and other extremists. 
The March 11, 2004, train bombings killed 191 persons and 
injured nearly 2,000 more, making it the second-deadliest 
terror attack in European history.  The Spanish government 
considers the threat from Islamic terrorism to be one of its 
top national security priorities and has identified numerous 
Islamic extremist groups operating within its borders.  The 
Spanish are actively pursuing Islamic extremism 
terrorism-related investigations and have scores of suspects 
in jail. Public opinion polling shows nearly three-quarters 
of Spaniards are worried about the threat of Islamic 
fundamentalism, more than in the U.S. or Europe as a whole. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Bilateral cooperation is strong.  Spain pursues an 
aggressive agenda in law enforcement, judicial, and 
information-sharing efforts, at least with us.  One example 
is the HSPD-6 agreement we signed in 2007 to facilitate the 
sharing of information between our national counterterrorism 
 
authorities.  Spain also is a founding member of the 
Proliferation Security Initiative.  Spain has hosted a number 
of Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (GI) events 
in 2008 and has been at the forefront of efforts to expand 
membership.  Spanish officials recently have given 
indications that Madrid wants to deepen bilateral cooperation 
-- especially emergency preparedness exercises -- to combat 
nuclear terrorism.  Our Consulate General in Barcelona is 
increasing its staff size as part of an inter-agency 
initiative to host a jointly-coordinated counterterrorism, 
anti-crime, and intelligence center to combat the target-rich 
environment of terrorist and criminal activities in the 
region, which has been the site of more than a dozen raids on 
suspected radical Islamists since 9/11, including the 
dismantlement in January 2008 of a cell with ties to Al-Qaeda 
that intended to attack Barcelona's subway system. 
 
//TOPICS YOU MAY BE ASKED ABOUT// 
 
¶9. (SBU) Overflights - The issue of so-called "illegal CIA 
flights" carrying terrorism suspects to Guantanamo has been 
prominent in the Spanish media in recent days.  The reports 
are muddled and contain a fair amount of innuendo.  They 
suggest that the Aznar government allowed the transport of 
terrorism detainees to Guantanamo via Spain.  The reports 
also confuse the so-called CIA flights with routine U.S. 
military flights via Spain (roughly 4,000 a year).  We and 
the GOS have tried to make it clear that the U.S. military 
has done nothing illegal and has fully respected our 
bilateral agreements regarding military flights, which would 
include seeking the informed consent of the Spanish 
government for any flight carrying controversial cargo or 
passengers.  Unfortunately, this controversy often leaves us 
in the position of trying to prove a negative.  If asked 
about this by the media, we suggest making the point that the 
U.S. places a high value on relations with Spain and pays 
scrupulous attention to the notification and flight clearance 
requirements contained in our bilateral agreements 
 
¶10. (SBU) Possible VP Biden Visit - The Spanish press have 
reported extensively on President Zapatero's lack of a 
meeting with President Bush and the lack of a Zapatero White 
House visit (until last month's G-20 financial summit).  They 
followed closely statements during the presidential campaign 
by Senators Obama and McCain and their spokesmen about the 
possibility of meeting with Zapatero.  The GOS has made clear 
its pleasure with the result of the election, and it may have 
unrealistic expectations about how soon the new President 
will visit Spain or Zapatero Washington.  Spanish officials 
told reporters recently that Vice President-elect Biden told 
Zapatero in a November 17 phone conversation that he would 
visit Spain shortly after taking office to discuss the global 
financial crisis.  The Vice President-elect also was said to 
have mentioned the importance the President-elect places on 
bilateral relations and highlighted the possibility for 
cooperation on Latin America.  We have not heard any 
confirmation of this from U.S. sources and have told 
reporters that we cannot speak for the incoming 
administration. 
 
//PERSONAL SECURITY// 
 
¶11. (U) In general, Spain is safe.  However, Madrid and other 
large cities attract a large number of criminals and 
pickpockets and frequent incidents of crime of opportunity 
against the unwary do occur.  It is best to carry only 
essential items, including a photocopy of your passport's 
photo page.  Visitors can protect themselves against crime by 
being street-smart, alert and aware of their surroundings. 
Travelers are encouraged to review the most recent Worldwide 
Caution issued by the Department of State.  As the Department 
of State continues to develop information on any potential 
security threats to Americans overseas, it shares credible 
threat information through its Consular Information Program 
documents, available on the Internet at 
http://travel/state.gov.  Additional information regarding 
safety and security in Spain is available on the U.S. 
Department of State's website (www.embusa.es). 
 
//CONCLUSION// 
 
¶12. (U) Again, we are looking forward to your visit.  Amid 
the current atmosphere of increased goodwill toward the 
United States, we want to set the stage for continuing 
improvements in bilateral cooperation.  There is much we can 
do together. 
AGUIRRE