VZCZCXRO3496
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1836/01 3581255
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 231255Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2597
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001836 
 
DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG 
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS KDEM SU
SUBJECT: APPOINTMENT OF NHIAL DENG NHIAL AS MINISTER FOR SPLA 
AFFAIRS REFLECTS SHIFTING SPLM DYNAMICS 
 
REF:  KHARTOUM 1817 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Presidential advisors assert that Nhial Deng 
Nhial's performance during and after Ali Osman Taha's December 16th 
visit to Juba (reftel) gave an 11th hour boost to his selection by 
GOSS President Salva Kiir Mayardit to be Minister for SPLA Affairs. 
They add he was chosen over Jonglei Governor Kuol Manieng amidst the 
SPLM's shifting calculus towards Khartoum.  The appointment reflects 
the steady resurgence of the SPLM's "Garang wing" in Juba politics, 
and the depth of rapprochement between Kiir and Nhial despite the 
latter's self-imposed exile in the United Kingdom and "abandonment" 
of the party in 2006.  The decision is broadly popular among the 
SPLA senior command.   Rival contender Manieng says he harbors no 
ill- will about being passed over for the position.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------- 
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE NHIAL CANDIDACY 
------------------------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) Kiir's December 21 appointment of Nhial Deng Nhial as 
Minister for SPLA Affairs reinserts Nhial into GOSS politics 
two-years after the latter's self-imposed exile to the United 
Kingdom.  It follows months of carefully-tended rapprochement 
between the two SPLM/A vanguards that began with Nhial's appearance 
at May's SPLM National Convention and most recently with Nhial's 
provision of welcome and discreet advice to Minister for 
Presidential Affairs Luka Biong Deng amidst the increasingly 
internecine politics of Juba.  With his return to the South 
following  completion of a  Masters of Letters in Law at  Scotland's 
Dundee University, Nhial adds heft to the efforts of Pagan Amum, 
Yasir Arman, Deng Alor, and Anne Itto to rejuvenate John Garang's 
vision of a transformed "New Sudan," against the South-centric 
"nationalist faction" of the SPLM.   Kiir has also pressed Nhial 
into service as an ad-hoc member of the SPLM's Crisis Management 
Team, utilizing his skills most recently in formulating possible 
SPLM responses to the anticipated ICC indictment of Sudanese 
President Omar al Bashir. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Nhial has been an on-again, off-again candidate on Kiir's 
short-list to fill the eight-month ministerial vacancy that followed 
the May 2 death of then-Minister Dominic Dim Deng in a plane crash, 
along with his wife, and a number of Ministry staffers.  On November 
20, Regional Cooperation Minister Barnaba Marial Benjamin told 
ConGen Juba staff that Jonglei Governor Manieng "was indisputably" 
Kiir's choice for SPLA Affairs, and at a Thanksgiving dinner hosted 
by USG-funded contractors working on Security Sector Transformation, 
Manieng grudgingly admitted that he was resigned to the fact that he 
was headed to Juba. 
 
¶4. (SBU) As recently as December 13, Minister for Legal Affairs 
Michael Makuei Lueth told the Acting Consul General that Manieng was 
coming to Juba, and that Makuai understood that he would be tapped 
to replace Manieng as Jonglei-State Governor.  Makuei had promoted 
Nhial as candidate to replace him in the Ministry of Legal Affairs, 
and Makuei believed Kiir was positively inclined towards the 
suggestion.  Makuei allowed that the only stumbling block to 
Manieng's transfer to SPLA Affairs were grumblings from the Nuer 
community that Jonglei's new governor not be "another Dinka." 
According to Makuei, at the request of Energy and Mining Minister 
John Luk Jok, Kiir now was "making a show" of considering GNU 
Minister James Kok and GOSS Ambassador to Kenya John Duku for the 
governorship. 
 
5.(SBU) While Manieng maintained to Acting CG December 22 that he is 
"thrilled" to be able to stay in Jonglei, and views Kiir's decision 
as "one necessary for the good of the SPLM," some in Juba contend 
that Manieng may have been his own worst enemy.  GOSS Presidency 
staffers told Acting CG on December 16 that Kiir was said to have 
grown increasingly uncomfortable with reports that, as one of his 
first acts in office, the oft-confrontational Manieng intended to 
move against the militias of ex-SSDF Commander and present Deputy 
Commander in Chief Paulino Matiep and GOSS Vice President Riek 
Machar.  (NOTE: Machar and Matiep both defied a presidential 
directive in April to disband their 4,000-strong combined militias. 
END NOTE.)  During the week of December 8 there were reportedly 
rumors circulating within SPLA Headquarters that Manieng also 
intended to replace SPLA Chief of General Staff Oyai Deng Ajak. 
Given present joint operations with the UPDF against the Lord's 
Resistance Army, the same presidential staffers noted to Acting CG 
on December 20 that Kiir had criticized Manieng's impulsiveness. 
 
--------------- 
THE TAHA FACTOR 
--------------- 
¶6. (SBU) Undersecretary for Regional Cooperation Cirino Hiteng Ofuho 
notified the Acting CG of Nhial's appointment hours after Kiir 
 
KHARTOUM 00001836  002 OF 002 
 
 
issued the Presidential Decree, noting that Nhial's performance in 
the days following Taha's visit played a "substantial role" in 
Kiir's choice.  According to Hiteng, should the NCP choose to 
replace Bashir with either an active or retired SAF general 
ill-disposed towards CPA implementation, including the 2011 
referendum on the South's independence, it might become necessary 
for Kiir to campaign for President of Sudan in the 2009 national 
elections to preserve "the South's right to independence." (COMMENT: 
 Select GOSS and SPLM officials also expressed this view in meetings 
with StaffDel Smith (septel).  We are not convinced that Kiir 
himself is leaning in the direction of running for the national 
presidency, but it is notable that the Garang Wing continues to 
advocate such an approach, and that Kiir apparently has given them 
the impression that it is a possibility. END COMMENT.) 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Moreover, pulling Nhial into SPLA Affairs deepens Kiir's 
coterie of dependable advisors as he acts to limit the reach of GOSS 
Vice President Riek Machar.  Kiir told Acting CG in October that 
Machar was already actively campaigning for the GOSS Presidency in 
2009 - despite a personal appeal from Kiir to "put the preservation 
of the South - and the 2011 Referendum" first. Placing Nhial in such 
a pivotal position gives Nhial public visibility necessary should 
unfolding events in Khartoum prompt Kiir to run at the national 
level - and should the SPLM's Garang-wing be able to persuade the 
party's secessionists of the necessity of such action. (COMMENT: 
According to those present at the discussions, Nhial consistently 
supported such a move in SPLM meetings following the Taha visit. END 
COMMENT.) 
 
¶8. (SBU) The decision not to move forward with Manieng also brings 
change within the GOSS Council of Ministers at a critical period in 
Khartoum/Juba relations as the SPLM awaits the NCP's decision on 
Bashir's future.  Kiir's appointment of Manieng to SPLA Affairs 
would have forced a GOSS-wide reshuffle, with changes occurring, at 
a minimum, of five ministries (Finance, Telecommunications, Internal 
Affairs, Ministry of Legal Affairs, and the Ministry of Health). 
(NOTE: While it is still possible that Internal Affairs Minister 
Paul Mayom may be moved to Rumbek to serve as Lakes States Governor, 
Kiir's December 21 decision buys the GOSS time before enacting such 
a change. END NOTE.) 
 
------------------------------------- 
SPLA RESPONSE: LARGELY JUBILANT, BUT... 
------------------------------------- 
¶9. (SBU) SPLA Chief of General Staff Oyai Deng Ajak enthusiastically 
praised Nhial's appointment in a December 21 conversation with the 
Acting Consul General.  Nhial and Ajak had an extremely close 
relationship during the 22-year North/South civil war, and Ajak 
believes that Nhial will prove to be an "intelligent and 
transformative" choice to lead the SPLA and effectively advocate for 
its needs within the GOSS Council of Ministers.  He predicted that 
Nhial would prove highly effective before the Southern Sudan 
Legislative Assembly as well, "a good mix of politician and 
diplomat," able to deftly deflect and diffuse the SSLA's criticism 
of the SPLA - presently heightened with last week's tabling of the 
2009 GOSS budget.  Deputy Chief of Staff James Hoth Mai was more 
measured in his praise, noting that the rank and file had already 
placed high expectations in Kuol Manieng's reputation for delivery, 
whereas "some soldiers may need convincing that Nhial will not leave 
us as he left Sudan in 2006."  He noted, however, that he personally 
supports the decision, and that with time Kiir's choice will prove 
to be sound. 
 
-------- 
BIO NOTE 
-------- 
¶10. (SBU) Nhial Deng Nhial was appointed Minister of Regional 
Cooperation for the  GoSS by Kiir on October 25, 2005.  He resigned 
from his position less than one year later following his repeated 
clashes with  Kiir on issues of corruption, Kiir's alleged 
mismanagement of the GOSS and purported abandonment of the vision of 
Garang's vision of a "New Sudan."  Nhial earned a Masters in Letters 
of Law from Dundee University in Scotland in July 2008.  His thesis 
was on Foreign Direct Investment in agricultural sectors in Africa. 
Nhial served as Leader of SPLM/SPLA Advance team to Khartoum in 
2005; Commander of SPLM/SPLA and Chief Negotiator during the 
Naivasha Peace Talks.  He has a Law Degree from the University of 
Khartoum, is a member of the SPLM Political Bureau and National 
Liberation Council.  A Dinka from Lakes State, he is a direct 
relative of William Deng, a highly renowned veteran Southern 
politician from 1960's Sudanese politics.  Born in the 1950s, Deng 
is married and has children. 
 
ASQUINO