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DE RUEHKH #1779/01 3490957
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FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2526
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 001779 
 
DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, DRL 
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EAID KDEM KPKO UNSC SU
SUBJECT: 38th AEC Plenary:  Elections, Border Demarcation, and 
Security in Southern Kordofan 
 
REFS:  A. KHARTOUM 1685 
        ¶B. KHARTOUM 1676 
   ¶B. KHARTOUM 1738 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY:  At its 37th plenary session on December 2, the NCP 
and SPLM briefed the Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC) on 
progress in drafting and adopting key legislation, including new 
security and media laws, necessary to carry out national elections 
in 2009. The Power Sharing Working Group chair suggested that the 
North-South Boundary Commission submit the draft report of its 
findings to the Presidency as soon as possible, with reservations if 
necessary.  The Security Working Group reported that it found 
worrying levels of tension and mistrust, and a proliferation of 
small arms on its visit to Southern Kordofan and urged continued 
vigilance.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Chairman's Introduction 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶2.  (U) AEC Chairman Derrick Plumbly noted important developments 
since the November Plenary in the "priority" areas identified in the 
AEC Mid-term Evaluation.  The National Election Commission (NEC) had 
been sworn in on November 17 (ref. A).  He understood that the 
Parties had agreed on a draft Media Law and that they would provide 
a progress report later in the meeting.  Ambassador Plumbly reported 
that the AEC Secretariat was following up on the NCPs proposal at 
the last plenary on how to link with the appropriate agencies of the 
Government of National Unity on national election preparations (ref. 
B).  He said there has been no substantial change in the dispute 
over foreign exchange, based on his discussions with the Finance 
Ministers of the GNU and GoSS, but the two parties were continuing 
to work together on a solution.  He also noted that Sudan is under 
growing pressure on a number of fronts, including the threat of an 
International Criminal Court indictment of President Bashir and the 
fallout from the global economic crisis, which is impacting the 
Government of South Sudan in particular. 
 
Election Preparations and Pending Legislation 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶3.  (U) SPLM representative Kosti Manibe reported that the Parties 
had made a commitment in principle to adopt all critical laws during 
this session of the Assembly.  He said that the NCP and SPLM are 
discussing nine draft laws, of which two (the Land Commission and 
Human Rights Commission Laws) had been gazetted in the National 
Assembly.  The Parties had agreed on a draft Media Law.  Chairman 
Plumbly added that he understood that the two sides also were close 
to agreement on the Security Law, but there still were three or four 
disputed points.  The NCP reported that UNMIS-AEC-NEC are jointly 
planning a workshop, at which veterans of other African elections 
would share their lessons-learned.  The Coordinator of the Power 
Sharing Working Group, Italian Ambassador Catoni, applauded the 
progress the Parties are making and said that Italy is prepared to 
provide financial support through the AEC to the NEC. 
 
CDA Criticizes Detentions, NCP Replies 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶4.  (U) CDA Fernandez also congratulated the two sides on their 
progress, saying that while there remains a lot of work to do, the 
United States is hopeful about the new legislation.  He then raised 
U.S. concerns about disharmony between observing the letter and the 
spirit of the laws.  He emphasized the need to create an enabling 
and positive environment for the coming elections.  He noted the 
recent arrests by the authorities of Sudanese journalists and the 
detention of human rights activists (ref C).  While these actions 
may be legal under current Sudanese law, he said, they are contrary 
to the environment conducive to free and fair elections that we are 
working to create.  He hoped that the adoption of the new Media and 
Security laws would bring with it a change from old practices. 
 
¶5.  (U) The CDA's remarks drew a testy response from the NCP. 
Minister of State for Presidential Affairs Idris Abdelgadir replied 
that the government's actions had been completely legal under 
Sudanese law.  The NCP demanded that the CDA's comments be stricken 
from the minutes and said the NCP would not approve minutes in which 
they were included, objecting specifically to the terms "abuse of 
human rights and "ghost houses" used by the Charge. 
 
¶6.  (U) The African Union representative reported that its Peace and 
Security Council had met the previous week in Addis and had 
expressed concern at the amount of work that remains to be done 
before elections can be held.  The AU asks that it be kept informed 
about the passage of key laws.  He also asked whether the Parties 
expect the elections to be held as scheduled and whether the 
National Assembly would stay in office after the legislation is 
passed.  For itself, the SPLM replied that it is committed to 
holding elections on time.  The European Union endorsed the idea of 
 
KHARTOUM 00001779  002 OF 003 
 
 
an elections workshop, saying it would be a good opportunity to 
share experience of other African countries. 
 
Census Results Timing 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
¶7.  (U) Kenya inquired about the timing of the release of census 
results.  Ambassador Plumbly responded that at its November 11 
meeting with the Central Bureau of Statistics, the AEC had been told 
that preliminary results will be by the end of December.  He said 
that given the political environment, the final results will be 
extremely sensitive.  He urged that the Parties consult together on 
how they will be presented to avoid any problems when they are 
released. 
 
North-South Border Demarcation 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶8.  (U) Chairman Plumbly referred to encouraging press reports about 
progress in demarcating the North-South border.  He asked whether 
the Boundary Commission's report would be sent to the Presidency 
soon.  Ambassador Catoni reported that the Boundary Commission has 
prepared a draft report of its findings, but that it is not ready 
for transmission to the Presidency and he anticipated further delay. 
 He suggested that the report might be sent, with any reservations 
included.  Chairman Plumbly said that he hoped the Commission's 
report would be sent to the Presidency soon, with reservations if 
necessary. 
 
Southern Kordofan: Tension, Mistrust and Tribal Militias 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶9.  (U) UK Ambassador Marsden reported on the Security Working 
Group's November 17-18 visit to South Kordofan, prompted partly by 
the alarming, recent International Crisis Group report on the area, 
to get an on-the-ground sense of the security situation there and 
what additional measures need to be taken.  She said the WG had 
found a worrying level of tension, mistrust, and a proliferation of 
small arms among tribal-based militias.  She reported that local 
tensions, and intermittent clashes, are tribal, rather than 
politically, based, that each tribe has formed its own militia, and 
the approaching seasonal migration could prove a catalyst for 
violence. 
 
¶10.  (U) Ambassador Marsden said there is continuing mistrust 
between the NCP and the SPLM in South Kordofan, including 
disagreement over the security situation, with UNMIS and the 
(NCP-controlled) state government reporting that the number of 
incidents is declining, while the SPLM believes they are increasing. 
 The NCP and SPLM also disagree about the level of SAF forces in the 
area.  The WG was concerned by conditions it observed at Lake Abiad, 
where 1500 SPLA soldiers who have redeployed from the Nuba Mountains 
complained of lack of water and inadequate security for their 
families.  The governor asked for support for the 6000 JIU soldiers 
in the state, who lack equipment and vehicles.   On the positive 
side, she said that 300 SPLM police and 1500 recruits are being 
trained to integrate into the national police and urged that this 
process be accelerated.  In summary, Ambassador Marsden said the 
visit demonstrated the need for continued vigilance. 
 
¶11.  (U) Dutch Ambassador Braakhuis (Coordinator of the Three Areas 
WG) commented that secuity issues need to be seen in a broader 
context.  The risk of conflict can be reduced by delivering peace 
dividends to the population and making adequate preparations for the 
coming migration.  He also urged that UNMIS Sector IV be proactive 
in undertaking confidence building and crisis management. 
 
Other Working Group Updates 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶12.  (U) The Norwegian Ambassador noted that his country would be 
taking over as Coordinator of the Security WG from the UK at the 
conclusion of the current plenary meeting.  CDA Fernandez reported 
that, with the SPLM absent, the Wealth Sharing Working Group held an 
informal meeting on November 10 and approved a work plan for the 
coming months.  (Note:  The SPLM had reviewed the work plan earlier 
and provided comments, which were included.  End note.)  As part of 
the work plan, the WG is placing a high priority on a meeting in 
Juba, to hear from the GoSS about its progress on implementing 
wealth-sharing provisions of the CPA and about capacity-building 
needed to meet CPA objectives of placing more southerners in Sudan's 
hydrocarbons sector and in the GNU Finance and Energy Ministries. 
Dutch Coordinator Braakhuis of the Three Areas WG reported that a 
draft work plan has been circulated for comment and they were 
awaiting comments.  He also noted that the Parties had met to 
discuss the Abyei boundary dispute arbitration.  A decision by the 
Court of Arbitration is likely in June or July 2009 and the parties 
should prepare for the announcement. 
 
 
KHARTOUM 00001779  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
African Union Peace and Security Committee Meeting 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶13.  (U) Under "Any Other Business," the African Union reported on 
the Peace and Security Committee meeting held in Addis the previous 
week, at which the NCP, SPLM, UN and AEC Chairman had briefed on CPA 
implementation.  In an effort to raise its commitment to the CPA, 
the AU plans to meet again on the subject every six months. 
Chairman Plumbly commended the AU for its increased attention to the 
CPA. 
 
Comment 
- - - - 
¶14.  (SBU) Since the last AEC plenary, there was promising progress 
in electoral preparations.  Not only was theQEC sworn in, but 
progress also was made in drafting the building block laws required. 
 However, a tremendous amount of work remains to be done, and it 
remains to be seen whether either the NCP or the SPLM is committed 
to holding elections at all.  The NCP remains unapologetic about 
using heavy-handed actions when it serves their interest, as 
demonstrated by their angry response to the CDA's balanced, 
behind-closed-doors criticism. 
 
ASQUINO