VZCZCXRO2776
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1767/01 3451351
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 101351Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2507
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001767 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, PRM, INL 
NSC FOR HUDSON AND PITTMAN 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF EAID ECON ASEC KPKO UNSC SU
SUBJECT: ADMINISTRATOR MAYOK DESCRIBES PROGRESS, PROBLEMS IN ABYEI 
 
REF: A. KHARTOUM 1758 
      ¶B. KHARTOUM 1714 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  During a December 6 meeting with CDA Fernandez, 
Abyei Administrator Arop Mayok described the situation there as "ok, 
generally."  IDPs are returning only slowly, but his Administration 
is working to reduce Dinka-Misseriya tensions and planning is well 
underway for this year's migration of Misseriya herdsmen with their 
cattle to the south.  He said that the Joint Integrated Police Unit 
(JIPU) is being replaced by a locally-recruited force, directly 
responsible to his Administration.  However, he added the 
Administration has yet to receive any of the oil revenues promised 
under the Roadmap agreement, that an SAF unit remains in the Difra 
oil field, oil police are unregulated, and the SPLA is threatening 
to remain in Agok if the SAF does not withdraw.  END SUMMARY 
 
Some IDPs Returning, But Very Cautiously 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶2.  (SBU) On December 6, CDA  Fernandez met in Khartoum with 
Administrator Arop Mayok for an update on the progress of the Abyei 
Administration.  The Charge remarked that he had met a few days 
earlier with Misseriya leader Sidig Babu Nimr (ref. A), who had 
nothing but praise for Mayok's work so far.  Mayok described the 
situation in Abyei as "ok, generally."  He estimated that only about 
10,000 of the 50-60,000 people displaced by the May fighting have 
returned permanently, due to continued uncertainty about the 
security situation.  He said that many IDPs commute daily from Agok, 
traveling to Abyei in the morning and returning before dark. Local 
residents do not want to rebuild yet because their claims for losses 
and compensation still have to be adjudicated. 
 
Working to Resolve Lingering Bitterness 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶3.  (SBU) Mayok said that the biggest problem is the bitter ethnic 
feelings that remain from May, especially on one side.  The Dinka 
continue to be  very angry over  the looting carried out by 
Misseriya.  According to Mayok, the SAF stripped the town of 
everything they wanted after the Dinka had fled, then they invited 
the Misseriya to take whatever was left, which they did with 
alacrity, carrying the loot to Muglad where a market for stolen 
goods called the "Abyei Market" was set up. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Mayok said that, if left unresolved, such bitterness could 
eventually erupt again into war.  To try to reduce tensions, his 
Administration is organizing a series of meetings.   First, a 
conference of traditional Ngok Dinka leaders was held in Agok the 
previous week to agree on a united Dinka position.  Second, on 
December 5, Dinka and Misseriya leaders met  to discuss arrangements 
for this year's annual Misseriya cattle migration.  Finally, he 
plans to call a meeting of all of the states neighboring Abyei. 
 
Misseriya-Migration Security 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶5.  (SBU) At the December 5 meeting between Dinka and Misseriya 
leaders, Mayok said the first hour had been devoted to allowing the 
former  to vent their anger at Misseriya actions in May. The 
Misseriya took the criticism and did not respond in kind.  Then 
participants from both sides got down to the work of planning this 
year's Misseriya cattle migration.  He said that the Misseriya had 
agreed to leave all their weapons (including automatic rifles) 
behind.  The question now is how to provide security for the 
Misseriya herdsman and his animals?  According to Mayok, the SAF and 
SPLA soldiers in the Abyei JIU are not, in fact, really integrated 
(although co-located,) and the Joint Integrated Unit (JIU) is liable 
to collapse in the face of a renewed Dinka-Misseriya clash, as 
happened in May.  He added that the Abyei JIU should exclude local 
Dinka and Misseriya soldiers, and should instead be manned from 
elsewhere in Sudan.  Therefore, the mission of providing security 
during the migration will be assigned to the Abyei police, reporting 
to Mayok. Their numbers need to be augmented and they need more 
equipment and vehicles. 
 
Still No Oil Revenues From Khartoum 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶6.  (SBU) Mayok confirmed that his Administration has drafted two 
budgets, an emergency 2008 budget and a 2009 budget, but that it 
still has not received from Khartoum any of the oil revenues to 
which it is entitled under the Roadmap agreement.  The Charge 
commented that neither are the Misseriya receiving their share, 
according to Babu Nimr.  Mayok's Administration is meeting its 
day-to-day expenses by borrowing money from the local traders in the 
Abyei-town market place, promising to repay when revenues finally 
begin to flow. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) CDA Fernandez remarked that the Embassy had been told by 
the government at different times that either the money was being 
 
KHARTOUM 00001767  002 OF 002 
 
 
disbursed, or could not be disbursed because of the Abyei 
Administration's lack of capacity.  He commented that this is a 
typical NCP strategy, the same as it is pursuing in regions not 
controlled by that party, to give the Administration the 
responsibility for governing Abyei, but deny it any resources. 
Mayok agreed that the NCP was forced to sign the Roadmap agreement, 
but now it is delaying full implementation.  He said the Government 
of National Unity's Office of the President has told him it will 
respond to his requests within ten days.  The GoS Ministry of 
Finance says it is unable to disburse money requested by the 
Administration absent direction from the Presidency in the form of a 
letter, which the latter  promised to provide by December 7.  The 
CDA asked Mayok to inform him whether or not the Presidency provided 
its approval on time.   The CDA said he would follow-up with the GoS 
if it did not.  (Note:  On December 8, Mayok told USAIDoff that he 
would receive an update from the Presidency on December 17.  It is 
not clear whether the original date was a miscommunication or if 
this is a further delay.  Post will continue to follow-up.  End 
note.) 
 
Local Police Replace JIPU 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶8.  (SBU) Mayok reported that the Joint Integrated Police Unit 
(JIPU), recruited from both north and south Sudan under the Roadmap 
agreement, had been only an interim measure and now is being 
replaced by a local police unit, responsible to the Abyei 
Administration.  It is this new Abyei police that is to provide 
security for the cattle migration.  He said that the Administration 
is free to recruit its own personnel, but that the new force badly 
needs equipment and assistance in training.  The CDA said that the 
USG is interested in assisting police in Abyei, but because it is 
prohibited from providing assistance to the North, the inclusion of 
northern police in the JIPU has presented a problem.  Replacing the 
JIPU with a locally-recruited force could help to resolve this 
issue, and he promised to convey this new information to Washington. 
 
 
Mutual SAF-SPLA Withdrawal Remains Incomplete 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶9.  (SBU) Mayok told the CDA that the SAF still has not withdrawn 
from the oilfield at Difra.  There is still a platoon at Difra and 
there is the problem of the unregulated "oil police" guarding the 
Difra fields and thus outside the Roadmap commitment to withdraw all 
SAF and SPLA from the Abyei area.  He said that his Administration 
is considering establishing a joint force under its control to 
provide oil-field security and remove this excuse. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) On the SPLA side, Mayok said the SPLA military police 
unit had left Agok, but that an SPLA logistical platoon remains to 
support the IDP population.  The SPLA has pledged to leave Agok 
completely, he said, but states it will return if the SAF remains in 
Difra.  The SPLA also threatens to block UNMIS monitors from Agok, 
if the SAF prohibits UNMIS from patrolling north of Difra. 
 
Comment 
- - - - 
¶11.  (SBU) Mayok confirmed what we had heard earlier from Abyei's UN 
Head of Office (ref. B) and Misseriya Deputy Nazir Babu Nimr, 
although his assessment of Dinka-Misseriya relations is somewhat 
less rosy than Nimr's.  Under the Roadmap, the Administration is 
entitled to tens of millions in revenues from local oil fields, 
which are badly needed to fund long-delayed, critical   development 
projects.  Such economic development would go far to ease continuing 
resentment between Dinka and Misseriya.  The  NCP's continuing 
unwillingness to provide   oil revenues  to Mayok's Administration 
keeps low grade tensions simmering and contributes to   Abyei's 
potential as a flashpoint for violence once again.  If the Abyei 
police is now entirely under the local administrator and no longer 
"joint," there should be no legal restrictions to American 
assistance for this unit. 
 
FERNANDEZ