VZCZCXRO0352
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1766/01 3421408
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 071408Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2505
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001766 
 
DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, AF/C, DRL 
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI SU
SUBJECT: CAPITALIZING ON CONCILIATORY NCP POSTURE, SPLM CONTINUES TO 
MAKE GAINS 
 
REF: A. KHARTOUM 1701 
      ¶B. KHARTUM 1687 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1. (SBU) Deputy Secretary of the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement 
(SPLM) for the Northern Sector Yasir Arman told poloffs that the 
SPLM leadership had a "productive" political bureau meeting in Juba 
on December 4.  Arman made it clear that the Government of Southern 
Sudan (GoSS) will reject national census results if the population 
figures show that the South has less than one third of the nation's 
population (ref B).  He was more positive about recent legislative 
gains made by the SPLM at the national level.  Not only have the 
SPLM-NCP agreed to hold another session of Parliament starting in 
late January of 2009, but they also agreed on reformed national 
press/media legislation and both parties committed to discuss the 
referendum bill in the upcoming Parliamentary session.  While 
generally positive about recent CPA implementation progress, Arman 
cautioned that a number of things could throw this positive momentum 
off track; the most worrisome event being an ICC indictment of 
Government of National Unity (GNU) President Al-Bashir.  End 
Summary. 
 
------------------------------ 
SPLM POLITICAL BUREAU MEETING 
------------------------------ 
¶2. (SBU) Poloffs met with SPLM Deputy Secretary for the Northern 
Sector Yasir Arman on 6 December to discuss outcomes of the SPLM's 
Political Bureau meeting held in Juba on 4 December.  Arman said 
that the SPLM leadership discussed the potential ICC indictment of 
Government of National Unity (GNU) President Al-Bashir, upcoming 
national and state-level elections, pending national legislation on 
security, media and the referendum, the Lord's Resistance Army, 
issues in Southern Kordofan state, the roll-out of national census 
results, and Darfur.  He informed poloffs that he will travel with 
SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum, Southern Sudan Legislative 
Assembly speaker James Wani Igga, and Blue Nile State Governor Malik 
Agar to Darfur in December to set the stage for SPLM Chairman and 
GNU First Vice President Salva Kiir Mayardit's long-awaited and 
previously delayed visit soon thereafter.  Arman confirmed that FVP 
Kiir's is still planning to travel to Ndjamena to meet with Chadian 
President Idris Deby, also (media reports have Deby meeting with 
President Bashir possibly this month in Darfur). 
 
----------------------- 
PARLIAMENTARY MATTERS 
----------------------- 
¶3. (U) Arman told poloffs that there is NCP-SPLM agreement on draft 
media/press legislation which, in theory, would increase freedom of 
the press in Sudan if ratified by the Parliament and approved by the 
Presidency.  According to Arman, the bill will be introduced to 
Parliament around the 15th of December. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Arman said that the Parliament has submitted a proposal to 
the Presidency to close the current session of Parliament on 23rd 
December and reopen for a new session in late January.  If approved, 
Arman said that the early 2009 session would focus on the 
ratification of key legislation such as the security law, the 
criminal code, the 2011 referendum bill, and the media/press acts 
(if not passed in the current session).  The referendum bill 
currently being discussed by the NCP and the SPLM was first drafted 
by SPLM Parliamentary Caucus Chairman Manoah Aligo Donga and refined 
by the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) Ministry of Legal Affairs 
(MoLA).  In this controversial bill, all southerners living outside 
of southern Sudan at the time of the referendum (i.e. - 
internally-displaced southerners living in the northern Sudan and 
Southern Sudanese refugees outside Sudan) are ineligible to vote on 
southern independence.  Arman claimed that the GoSS' reason for 
excluding Southerners living in the North is to avoid NCP 
manipulation of this population.  Arman said that the NCP has 
offered its opinion on the draft referendum law and objects to this 
GoSS' formulation of who can vote.  Work on the referendum bill will 
be an "uphill battle" with the NCP now, said Arman. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
NOT IF, BUT WHEN THE GOSS REJECTS CENSUS RESULTS 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
¶5. (SBU) Arman told poloffs that the GoSS is "waiting to see" the 
census results and will surely reject them if the results are not 
"logical and reasonable." (ref B)  "If the results show that the 
South has less than one third of the national population, the GoSS 
will reject them," he said.  In so many words, Arman told poloffs 
that the rejection will come not because the GoSS truly believes the 
population of the South reaches one third of the population of the 
 
KHARTOUM 00001766  002 OF 002 
 
 
nation, but because under the CPA the census figures have critical 
North/South power and wealth-sharing consequences and it does not 
want to see its relative share of national power decline vis-`-vis 
the NCP. 
 
---------- 
ELECTIONS 
---------- 
¶6. (SBU) Arman said that the SPLM and the NCP should fix an 
elections date through consultation, but told poloffs that the 
National Electoral Commission will be able to greatly influence the 
political decision on the choice of an elections date (ref B).  "We 
must push for elections on time," said Arman, "but there are a 
number of big issues to tackle before elections take place," 
including managing the fall-out of a potential ICC indictment of 
Al-Bashir, the need for a reformed legislative environment which 
would enhance the chance of free and fair elections, and the 
inclusion of Darfur in the electoral process.  Arman said it would 
be a "serious issue" to forgo elections in Darfur because of the 
security situation.  He cautioned that if state elections do take 
place in Darfur and local representatives are elected to office, it 
could put a major kink in GoS-Darfur rebel negotiations for 
power-sharing arrangements in the national government. 
 
-------- 
COMMENT 
-------- 
¶7. (SBU) The SPLM continues to benefit from the NCP's recent, more 
conciliatory posture in order to make positive democratic gains on 
the introduction and ratification of reformed national legislation, 
the push to adopt a referendum law before a newly-elected Parliament 
is seated, and the SPLM's ability to play a greater role in the 
Darfur peace process.  While positive about current progress, Arman 
and other high-level SPLM leaders remain cautious about NCP 
movement, as they are keenly aware that the NCP is always positioned 
to outwit, outplay, and outlast its opponents. They see the NCP's 
current "reasonableness" as tactical - the result of international 
and internal factors which could be dangerous for the regime's 
survival.   Whether the ICC decides to indict Al-Bashir and, if so, 
whether the UNSC votes to suspend the indictment, the nature of 
pressure on the regime will surely shift and opposition gains will 
likely not seem as great. 
 
FERNANDEZ