VZCZCXRO9259
RR RUEHGI RUEHRN RUEHROV
DE RUEHKM #1613/01 3530611
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 180611Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0993
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 001613 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PHUM PREF KDEM ASEC EAID UG
SUBJECT:  CONTENTIOUS UGANDAN BY-ELECTION AND ITS LESSONS FOR 2011 
 
REF: A. Kampala 1470 
¶B. 07 Kampala 01847 
¶C. 07 Kampala 01792 
¶D. 07 Kampala 865 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  On December 4, Uganda conducted another 
controversial by-election in Wakiso District to replace a ruling 
party parliamentarian (reftels).  With increasing opposition inroads 
in the district, the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party 
pulled out heavy hitters, such as First Lady Janet Museveni, to make 
its case.  The opposition Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) summoned 
its leader, Kizza Besigye, and the Democratic Party (DP) former 
president, Paul Ssemogerere, to counter the NRM campaign.  The NRM 
narrowly held on to the seat by just 60 votes.  There were public 
reports of ballot stuffing, rigging, and electoral violence and 
intimidation.  Election monitors from the diplomatic community 
reported minor irregularities.  The opposition publicly announced 
its intent to challenge the results in the High Court.  Repeated 
electoral irregularities in by-elections and the government's 
refusal to meaningfully engage the opposition on electoral reforms 
has undermined public confidence in the country's ability to hold 
free and fair elections in 2011.  End Summary. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Wakiso District By-Elections 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2.  (U) Ugandan electoral officials held by-elections on December 4 
to fill the Kyaddondo North, Wakiso District seat left vacant after 
the death of NRM parliamentarian Ssebunya Kibirige.  NRM candidate 
and son of Kibirige, Robert Kibirige Kasule, won the tightly 
contested race with 8,183 votes - just 60 more than DP candidate 
Regine Bakittee.  Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) candidate 
Pallyne Nakabuye finished a distant third with 1,900 votes. 
 
¶3.  (U) First Lady Janet Museveni and a group of ruling party 
supporters known as the "Yellow Girls" hit the campaign trail and 
urged voters to support Kasule's candidacy.  The campaign argued 
that the NRM needed more time to accomplish the party's goals and a 
vote for Kasule would allow a continuation of the ruling party's 
work.  Besigye dismissed this, arguing that the ruling party had 
failed to deliver on its promises to the Ugandan people. 
Ssemogerere called on voters to support Bakittee because of her 
"high moral structure and integrity." 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Reports of Electoral Irregularities Mar Results 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4.  (U) Allegations of electoral malpractice, including ballot 
stuffing, bribery, multiple voting, and violence were widespread. 
In one confirmed incident, a polling station's presiding officer and 
other officials were found at the site before the polls opened with 
a number of pre-marked ballots already in the box.  The police and 
Electoral Commission Returning Officer were called in and the 
presiding officer was later arrested and the ballot box confiscated. 
 New staff and electoral materials were provided and voting resumed 
about an hour later.  However, representatives from the Uganda Young 
Democrats (UYD), a more radical wing of the DP, had already 
mobilized at the station to protest this irregularity and had to be 
dispersed with tear gas, according to reports.  Voting resumed and 
continued without incident for the rest of the day.  Other 
complaints from opposition leaders include accusations that 
additional polling stations were opened in Kangaroo, a pro-NRM area, 
to make it easier for NRM supporters to vote. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
DP Contests Results; Alleges Intimidation and Rigging 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶5.  (U) The opposition immediately rejected the results and publicly 
indicated its intent to file a petition challenging the outcome with 
the High Court.  Party officials argued that there was rigging and 
electoral violence, and noted that in early election results, 
Kibirige was leading.  DP Legal Advisor and Kampala District 
parliamentarian Erias Lukwago told the press that the election was 
not "free and fair" and vowed to seek legal redress. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Prior to the poll, DP Secretary General Mathius Nsubuga 
contacted members of the diplomatic community to encourage missions 
to observe the election on December 4.  Nsubuga expressed concerns 
about increased Ugandan military deployments in the area in the days 
leading up to the election and reported increased incidents of 
intimidation.  He reported that Bakittee's campaign manager had been 
knocked down in a hit-and-run car accident involving a 
government-marked vehicle.  Nsubuga said that when the car 
eventually stopped, the Ugandan military quickly converged on the 
scene to ensure the safety of the occupants but not the victim.  The 
occupants were escorted away and allowed to leave the scene, 
according to his account. 
 
KAMPALA 00001613  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
- - - - 
Comment 
- - - - 
 
¶7.  (SBU) While there were widespread allegations of electoral 
irregularities and reports of government intimidation, electoral 
monitors from the diplomatic community reported only minor 
incidents.  It is unclear, however, how many diplomats were 
deployed, nor whether they were trained in observing elections.  In 
any event, additional claims of electoral malfeasance will likely 
surface as the opposition court case challenging the results moves 
forward.  The ruling party's narrow victory in Wakiso district and 
in other recent by-elections indicates increased support for the 
opposition in former NRM strongholds.  Nonetheless, continued 
distrust between opposition parties FDC and DP, which resulted in an 
inability to field a single candidate, prevented them from 
capitalizing on local unhappiness over recent scandals involving the 
ruling party. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Sustained reports of electoral irregularities in a number 
of by-elections since the 2006 presidential and parliamentary 
elections (reftels) have fueled public perception that the Electoral 
Commission (EC) is not independent.  A recent Steadman Group poll 
found that 63% of respondents felt that the EC was not free to make 
decisions without government interference.  Additionally, 59% said 
that past elections had not been effectively managed and rigging was 
cited as the main reason for this deficiency.  A lack of voter 
confidence in the electoral system stems from confirmed and 
reoccurring reports of electoral fraud and mismanagement in 
by-elections, a sustained push by the opposition to discredit the 
EC, and the ruling party's inability to accept defeat.  The 
Government's lack of action on the Supreme Court's electoral reform 
recommendations following the flawed 2006 elections also remains a 
source of tension.  None of this bodes well for Uganda's ability to 
hold free, fair, and transparent presidential and parliamentary 
elections in 2011. 
BROWNING