VZCZCXRO8399
RR RUEHGI RUEHRN RUEHROV
DE RUEHKM #1611 3521233
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171233Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0991
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS KAMPALA 001611 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: ECON EAID PINS PGOV PREL UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA'S POPULATION BOOM JEOPARDIZES DEVELOPMENT GAINS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Two new demographic studies in Uganda show that 
the country has one of the highest population growth rates in the 
world, creating a demographic time bomb which threatens to undermine 
Uganda's recent economic gains and political stability.  According 
to one study, Uganda's population increased by 3.2%, or one million 
people, to 29.6 million during 2007.  Another study shows that 
between now and 2050, Uganda is expected to have the highest 
population increase in the world, with total population rising by 
263% to nearly 78 million.  Together, the reports stand as a strong 
rebuke to Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni's pro-growth position on 
population and highlight challenges that the Government of Uganda 
must address immediately.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Uganda's population increased by 3.2%, or one million people, 
to 29.6 million during 2007, according to a report released by 
Uganda's Population Secretariat at the Ministry of Finance, Planning 
and Economic Development on November 11.  The report, "The State of 
Uganda Population Report 2008," published with support from the UN 
Population Fund (UNFPA), provides evidence that the rapid rate of 
population growth is already creating deleterious effects throughout 
society and the economy.  Twelve percent of women of reproductive 
age are undernourished, it states, while 38% of children under five 
years old demonstrate stunted growth.  Government policy makers will 
face increasing social conflict over access to land, employment, 
energy, clean water, education, housing, transportation, and health 
services, as well as greater food insecurity because the subdivision 
of farms among competing heirs will cause lower agricultural 
productivity.  The report urges the GOU to work deliberately to 
ensure a sustainable population growth rate, particularly by 
increasing contraceptive use, which currently stands at only about 
24% among married women. 
 
¶3. (U) According to a second report, published by the 
non-governmental Population Reference Bureau (PRB), Uganda's ratio 
of those not in the labor force compared to those currently working 
is the highest in the world at 116%.  Forty-nine percent of the 
population is below 15 years old.  The contraceptive "unmet need" 
(defined as the percentage of women of reproductive age who do not 
want more children but are not using any form of contraception) of 
Ugandan women stands at 34.6%. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Both reports challenge Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni's 
own pro-growth position on population.  Museveni, who gained power 
when the country was depopulated after years of conflict, continues 
to advocate population growth in order to spur economic growth and 
expand markets.  "The wealth of a nation is not in the soils and 
stones," he stated in July 2008.  "It is in its people, its 
population.  I do not agree with the alarmism over the high rate of 
population growth."  Such comments come despite ample evidence that 
the country's rapidly growing population is overwhelming Uganda's 
infrastructure, social services, and educational institutions. 
Further, the Ugandan President has yet to acknowledge the growing 
body of evidence demonstrating that demographic "youth bulges," 
coupled with high unemployment rates, have the potential to 
seriously undermine a country's development and political stability 
by generating higher levels of crime, political violence, and 
terrorism. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Comment:  The Population Secretariat's report is evidence 
that at least some GOU officials understand Uganda's demographic 
challenges, but Museveni's own staunch, pro-growth position is 
alarming.  While the GOU has developed policies for reproductive 
health and family planning, in coordination with UNFPA and donors 
including USAID, political commitment to implementation of those 
policies is lacking.  The GOU has not spent funds on contraceptive 
commodities in the past two years, for example, and few high-level 
officials outside of the Population Secretariat have ever made 
statements contradicting the President's position on this issue. 
Both UNFPA and USAID have current programs with elements to provide 
family planning services.  USAID allocated $10 million to programs 
aimed at strengthening family planning services in 2008 and will 
award a $39 million five-year project in early 2009 to focus on 
family planning and child survival in 15 of Uganda's 80 districts. 
The PEPFAR program also spent $2 million on condom procurement for 
HIV prevention in 2008.  While such donor programming is a step in 
the right direction, all of Uganda's political and economic gains of 
recent years are in jeopardy if the GOU does not adjust course and 
take action now to address its impending demographic disaster.  End 
comment. 
BROWNING