VZCZCXRO3772
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DE RUEHBUL #3193/01 3461353
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P 111353Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6399
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 003193 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG 
NSC FOR JWOOD 
OSD FOR MCGRAW 
CG CJTF-101, POLAD, JICCENT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF CODEL KERRY TO AFGHANISTAN 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Embassy Kabul warmly welcomes the visit of Senator 
Kerry and his delegation.  The overall state of Afghanistan 
is more nuanced than the negative drumbeat coming from the 
media.  Steady advances in security do not grab the headlines 
that a spectacular suicide attack does.  Progress in 
development continues below the international media's radar 
screen.  Continued poor performance on governance, however, 
will put these real achievements at risk. 
 
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Governance a fundamental challenge 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  President Karzai's administration is still seeking 
the optimum balance between new institutions and traditional 
or tribal governance.  Karzai's cabinet represents a 
cross-section of Afghanistan, but ministers and their 
organizations vary in effectiveness.  After years of war, 
Afghanistan does not have an educated middle class, and its 
technocrats are few.  Strong leadership has produced 
significant results in education, health, rural development, 
and fiscal policy, but other key ministries suffer from poor 
leadership, limited capacity, and corruption.  A positive new 
development in the past year is the creation of the 
Independent Directorate for Local Governance (IDLG.)  IDLG 
Director Popal has earned and maintains Karzai's backing to 
improve provincial and municipal governance and the delivery 
of basic services.  Popal has launched the Afghan Social 
Outreach Program (with US funding) to form local councils to 
strengthen ties between local government institutions and the 
tribes.  Gen. McKiernan will brief you on another program to 
use separate but similar local councils to improve security. 
 
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Election season underway 
------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Next year's presidential and provincial council 
elections will be the defining event for 2009.  Electoral 
strategies already dominate nearly everything political here. 
 Karzai's popularity has declined dramatically in polls, but 
the opposition has yet to organize itself. Public concern 
over personal insecurity and disgust over corruption are key 
election issues.  President Karzai recently shuffled his 
cabinet and put the talented Hanif Atmar in as Interior 
Minister to address these problems and perceptions, but after 
seven years Afghans will be hard to convince.  You will meet 
with Atmar. 
 
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Security advances and set-backs 
------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Our greatest success on the security side is the 
advances in the numbers and capabilities of the Afghan army. 
Working together, Coalition and Afghan security forces have 
increased the government's area of control in the past year. 
The Taliban's response has been to shift from insurgency to 
terrorism, to challenge the partnership between the 
international community and ordinary Afghans.  Many Afghans 
do feel less safe, with random violence such as kidnappings 
on the rise, and travel around the country more insecure. 
Interior Minister Atmar is looking to accelerate police 
training and reform.  The Focused District Development (FDD) 
program to retrain and equip the police is going well and 
will soon expand to include the Border Police.  CSTC-A's 
MGen. Cone, whom you will meet, supervises this and other 
police and army training programs. 
 
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Positive trends on poppy, but a big challenge in the south 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Afghanistan reduced poppy cultivation by 19 per 
cent from 2007, breaking the record growth trend of the past 
two years.  Just as notable was the increase in poppy-free 
provinces from 13 to 18.  At least for now, poppy cultivation 
has died away in the northern and eastern parts of the 
country, including in historically-important 
poppy-cultivating provinces like Badakhshan, Balkh, and 
Nangarhar.  The narcotics challenge has continued to grow in 
the south, where seven provinces now account for 98 per cent 
of the country's production.  In the south especially, 
narcotics traffickers and the Taliban have developed a 
relationship of mutual support.  This year we see some 
promise in Helmand province, the "breadbasket" of opium 
 
KABUL 00003193  002 OF 002 
 
 
production. Helmand Governor Mangal has shown impressive 
leadership and commitment to take on the opium industry.  In 
partnership with the UK, we are backing Mangal's initiative 
to eliminate narcotics cultivation in an 100-square mile 
area, through an intensive information campaign, agricultural 
assistance, and police eradication protected by the Afghan 
army. 
 
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Leveraging development for economic growth 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  The Afghan economy is expected to grow by 7 to 8 
per cent this year, following several years of double-digit 
growth.  Inflation, mostly imported, accelerated sharply this 
year, and progress in revenue generation stalled, further 
postponing the goal of independence from massive donor 
financing.  Sustaining high growth rates will require greater 
political support for economic reforms needed to improve the 
business climate -- more political support than the current 
government has demonstrated. US economic assistance 
priorities are agriculture, energy, roads, and private sector 
development.  Afghanistan remains one of the poorest 
countries in the world, and a bad wheat harvest, caused by 
drought, forced the government to make two appeals for food 
aid this year.  The US has responded through a sharp increase 
in our World Food Program (WFP) assistance, and other aid to 
increase production of food crops. 
 
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Regional dynamics important 
--------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Afghanistan's effort to build a secure and stable 
state is complicated by its relationships with its neighbors. 
 Bilateral ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan have 
improved dramatically since the Zardari government came to 
power, and the two governments convened a symbolic 
"mini-jirga" meeting in October.  Distrust of the Pakistani 
Army and intelligence services and frustration with the 
substantial freedom terrorists enjoy across the border, 
however, remain high.  Along the border in the west, many 
Afghans look toward Iran for news, entertainment, jobs, 
education, and medical care.  Afghans worry that tensions 
over Iran's nuclear ambitions could erupt into  a war that 
would embroil them. 
DELL