VZCZCXRO0497
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHJM #2266/01 3540754
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 190754Z DEC 08
FM AMCONSUL JERUSALEM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3550
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEADWD/DA WASHINGTON DC//DAS-ZD/DACS-ZK//
RUEAHQA/CSAF WASHINGTON DC//POLAD//
RHMFIUU/CMC WASHINGTON DC
RUENAAA/CNO WASHINGTON DC//POLAD//
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS 7450
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 4433
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 4283
RUEHNC/AMEMBASSY NICOSIA 5777
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 4199
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2769

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 JERUSALEM 002266 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS BBG 
STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD 
WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM 
NSC FOR ABRAMS 
CMC WASHINGTON DC FOR POLAD 
 
JERUSALEM ALSO FOR ICD 
LONDON FOR HKANONA AND POL - TSOU 
PARIS ALSO FOR POL 
ROME FOR MFO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL KMDR KPAL KWBG KPAO IS
SUBJECT: JERUSALEM MEDIA REACTION (12/19): THE TRUCE ENDS, WHAT 
NEXT? 
 
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Main Stories: 
------------- 
 
All papers lead with reports that the Palestinian factions, Hamas, 
Islamic Jihad, Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine and 
the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine declared an end to 
the truce with Israel.  The announcement came following a joint 
meeting of the factions in Gaza on December 18.  Hamas 
representative Ayman Taha is quoted saying the factions hold Israel 
responsible for not respecting the truce.  The papers add that seven 
Palestinians were injured in two Israeli air strikes targeting the 
northern and eastern areas of the Gaza Strip.  Al Quds and Al Hayat 
Al Jadeeda quote Palestinian Authority President Abbas, who arrived 
in Washington for a meeting with President Bush today, stating that 
maintaining the truce is important for protecting citizens. 
 
Al Ayyam and Al Hayat Al Jadeeda front page a statement issued by 
UNRWA yesterday that it has suspended distribution of food 
assistance to 750,000 Palestinian refugees in Gaza because of a 
flour shortage.  The reports note UNRWA attributed this to the 
Israeli closure of the Gaza crossings.  Al Quds adds that the 
government hospitals in Gaza are suffering a shortage of 
disinfectants and detergents. 
 
Al Quds, citing Le Figaro, reports that the French President Sarkozy 
has proposed a new Middle East peace plan that includes keeping 
Jerusalem an open joint capital for the states of Israel and 
Palestine and calls for deploying EU forces in the West Bank areas 
from which Israel would withdraw. The plan also reportedly includes 
a proposal to solve the Palestinian refugee issue by means of 
financial compensation.  This would be done with a budget ranging 
between 80 to 200 billion dollars to be paid by the EU and Arab Gulf 
countries through a special international mechanism.  Sarkozy 
reportedly will present the plan to the EU president. 
 
Al Quds reports on a "special" conference held in Jerusalem, which 
was attended by a number of experts and officials representing local 
and regional organizations.  The paper quotes Palestinian Authority 
Governor of Jerusalem Adnan Husseini expressing disappointment over 
the European Union position on Israeli violations of rights of 
Palestinians in Jerusalem and calling on all diplomats in Israel to 
recognize these Israeli violations.  The UN Humanitarian Affairs 
office in Jerusalem attended the event. 
 
In a front page report, Al Quds quotes Israeli Prime Minister Ehud 
Olmert telling an Israeli National Security meeting on December 18 
that "anyone with insight understands that the solution with the 
PQestinians can only be to divide the country."  The paper goes on 
to note Olmert, objecting to plans by Israel's former PM Netanyahu, 
stated that economic peace alone is not possible without political 
peace, adding that, "Unfortunately we need to proceed with the 
two-state solution, otherwise the alternative might be the 
destruction of Zionism." 
 
Al Hayat Al Jadeeda quotes Palestinian Authority Prime Minister 
Fayyad, in a meeting with thQdonor countries in Ramallah, saying 
Israel should be held accountable for meeting its commitments within 
the framework of the peace process.  The meeting, which was attended 
by Quartet Envoy Tony Blair, was meant to assess financial needs of 
the Palestinian Authority for 2009.  In a separate report, the paper 
cites a Reuters report that it is less likely Israel would adhere to 
its commitments if Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu is elected and 
this, combined with the likelihood of increased Hamas-Fatah 
 
JERUSALEM 00002266  002 OF 002 
 
 
division, makes a peace agreement with Israel less likely in 2009. 
------------- 
BLOCK QUOTES: 
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¶1. Al Quds, in its main editorial entitled: "Iran ... a 
reconsideration of several stands is required" remarks that "It is 
time for the Arabs and Palestinians, with all their factions and 
movements, to realize that Iran has its own interests, including a 
special interest in avoiding an attack on its nuclear sites and 
using the Palestinian and Lebanese arenas to distract 
[international] attention. As soon as Iran reaches an agreement with 
the West [on its nuclear program] or when it obtains nuclear arms, 
we believe it will not be interested, as it is now, in its 
Palestinian or Lebanese allies.  Rather it would turn to a new page, 
[as a result] of its nuclear capabilities, [in relations] with the 
West and America, and, expectedly, this would come at the expense of 
today's Palestinian and Lebanese allies." 
 
¶2. Mohamad Yaghi opines in Al Ayyam under the title "Will the truce 
[with Israel] be renewed?" that "Renewal of the truce is coming, but 
it might [happen only] after some bloody drama.  The truce-willing 
Israel might stage a limited invasion or could carry out 
assassinations or even a series of [assassinations] to give the 
impression that it has the upper hand, but this does not necessarily 
mean that it would succeed in enforcing a truce according to its 
terms. Israel's estimations are based on its adventurous mentality, 
and not on any political rational.  On the other hand, in the case 
of a limited [Israeli] invasion or assassinations, the Palestinian 
factions would not only be obliged to react, but would also find 
themselves under a pressure from the public to require an acceptable 
price from Israel in exchange for a truce.  This opens the way for a 
reciprocated escalation before returning to the truce." 
 
MARCHESE