VZCZCXRO3359
RR RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW
DE RUEHCG #0413/01 3580736
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 230736Z DEC 08
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2020
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 3438
RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000413 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: BJP SET TO TIGHTEN ITS GRIP ON KARNATAK IN DECEMBER 27 
BY-ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A) CHENNAI 89, B) CHENNAI 192, C) CHENNAI 315, D) CHENNAI 326 
E) NEW DELHI 2513 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The Bharthiya Janata Party (BJP) looks poised to 
tightenits grip on the reins of Karnataka's government onDecember 
27, when the state holds seven by-electons (ref A).  The BJP 
currently has 110 of the 224 seats in the legislative assembly, and 
was able to form a government (becoming the first durable, BJP 
government in South India) following the May elections with the 
support of several of the assembly's six independent members (ref 
B).  Even though the BJP appears likely to do well in the 
by-elections and thereby secure a solid majority in the legislative 
assembly, the party faces further problems.  Fissures in the state's 
party apparatus may already be appearing, as those who helped 
finance the party's rise in the state begin to feel sidelined by its 
ideologues.  End Summary. 
 
By-elections needed to fill defectors' seats 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Karnataka's state elections brought to power the first BJP 
government in South India in May, when the party won 110 of the 
assembly's 224 seats, outdistancing handily its main rivals, the 
Congress Party (80 seats), and Janata Dal-Secular (JDS, 28 seats). 
With the support of several of the assembly's six independent 
members, the BJP formed a government and its leader, B.S. 
Yeddiyurappa, became Chief Minister.  Soon thereafter, three 
Congress members and five from the JDS ditched their parties to join 
the BJP (obtaining attractive positions as the heads of ministries 
in the process).  India's "anti-defection" law requires these rebels 
to resign and re-contest their seats in by-elections.  (One of the 
defectors' seats is mired in a legal challenge and will not be 
contested on December 27.) 
 
BJP likes its chances 
--------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Political analysts from a leading national daily told us 
that the BJP should do well in the by-elections.  Not only were the 
now-BJP candidates local strongmen who would be likely to win as a 
member of any party, they said, but the appeal of having a candidate 
from the governing party should also increase their chances. 
 
¶4. (SBU) In addition, they noted that the opposition parties are in 
disarray in the state.  Siddaramiah, a key Congress figure and 
member of the Kuruba community, which has a heavy presence in 
several of the by-election constituencies, has not campaigned for 
Congress candidates and several of his supporters are now actively 
working on behalf of the BJP.  They also told us that JDS 
supporters, disenchanted with the candidates selected by the party's 
bosses (including former Prime Minister Deve Gowda), are defecting 
en masse to the BJP, reducing the ability of the party to engage in 
typical labor-intensive campaigning.  Even a Congress Party member 
of the state's legislative assembly, usually prone to 
over-estimating his party's electoral chances, conceded that 
Congress will struggle to avoid embarrassment in the by-elections. 
 
The enemy within? 
----------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) If, as expected, the BJP solidifies its grip on state power 
in the by-elections, then its greatest challenges may well come from 
within.  A local political analyst told us that about half of the 
BJP's state legislators are former Congress and JDS members who do 
not generally subscribe to the strands of the party's ideology 
emphasizing Hindu nationalism (often referred to as "hindutva").  He 
said that BJP pro-hindutva ideologues (as well as ideological 
supporters within the larger pro-hindutva Sangh Parivar movement to 
which the BJP belongs) feel themselves being sidelined, which may 
encourage them to engage in pro-hindutva activities that may 
alienate other BJP members and supporters.  He also suggested that 
the attacks on churches in the state in September (refs C-E) may 
have been part of this phenomenon, an interpretation shared by the 
journalists we spoke with.  (Comment:  The leadership of Karnataka's 
Bajrang Dal organization -- also part of the Sangh Parivar -- 
claimed responsibility for the attacks.  Both state and national BJP 
leaders criticized the violence and the Bajrang Dal, and Karnataka's 
BJP government increased police protection for churches.  End 
Comment.) 
 
¶6. (SBU) A Bangalore-based journalist for a national daily told us 
that the BJP's inexperience in governing was becoming a problem. 
She noted that previous governments (either JDS- or Congress-led) 
were better able to cover their tracks when taking bribes or 
engaging in other corrupt practices, distancing key politicians from 
potentially incriminating acts.  The BJP politicians, she said, are 
not necessarily more corrupt than their opponents, but are far less 
adept at it.  She opined that this, over time, will give opponents 
evidence to use against the government. 
 
CHENNAI 00000413  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) A former politician (an ex-member of both the JDS and 
Mayawati's BSP) told us that Yeddiyurappa's leadership style, which 
tends to ignore those outside of a tight inner circle, was also 
grating on the nerves of other BJP leaders.  He suggested that some 
of these BJP lieutenants were already plotting to leave the BJP and 
form their own party. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Another analyst told us that another challenge to 
Yeddiyurappa may come from Karunakara Reddy, an iron-ore mining 
magnate who has provided a big chunk of the BJP's funding in 
Karnataka.  Reddy is presently Minister for Tourism, and is not very 
happy about being given a peripheral post in return for the wads of 
money he has bestowed on the party, according to the analyst, who 
says that Reddy sees himself as a future Chief Minister.  The ex-JDS 
and BSP politician told us that the BJP plans to move Reddy to New 
Delhi if it wins the upcoming national elections, due before May. 
If the BJP fails to form the next national government, he opined, 
Reddy may well take his money -- and a fair number of state 
legislators inclined to support him -- to form his own party. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Barring several unexpected upsets, the BJP should 
consolidate its grip on power in Karnataka in the December 27 
by-elections.  If much of the political chatter we've heard from our 
interlocutors is true, however, politics in the state should remain 
interesting, as factions within the BJP vie for power while Congress 
and the JDS continue their slow implosions in the run-up to national 
elections. 
 
SIMKIN