VZCZCXRO3521
RR RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW
DE RUEHCG #0405 3460603
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 110603Z DEC 08
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2010
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000405 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IN
SUBJECT:  COMMUNIST ALLIANCE WITH KEY REGIONAL PARTY LEAVES BJP OUT 
IN THE COLD, FOR NOW 
 
REF:  A) CHENNAI 224 B) CHENNAI 020 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) 
and the Communist Party of India (CPI) have agreed to an alliance 
with Tamil Nadu's principal opposition party, the AIADMK, for next 
year's elections to the Indian parliament.  The communists' decision 
to join with the AIADMK hurts the state's ruling DMK party, as well 
as the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance, whose constituent 
parties swept all 39 of Tamil Nadu's parliamentary seats in the 2004 
elections.  But the BJP is perhaps the biggest loser, as the 
decision to go with the left virtually rules out any hopes of a 
pre-poll AIADMK-BJP alliance in advance of next year's parliamentary 
elections.  Without such an alliance, Tamil Nadu BJP leaders admit 
that they are unlikely to win even a single seat from the state. 
All is not lost for the BJP, however, as there is always the 
possibility that the AIADMK switches gears after the election and 
lends its support to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance.  End 
summary. 
 
Left reels in Jayalalithaa 
----------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) On December 5, CPM General Secretary Prakash Karat and 
AIADMK former Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa jointly declared their 
decision to "enter into an alliance."  Karat said they would meet 
again to work out the modalities of the alliance and also told the 
media that his CPM has a common understanding with the CPI on the 
alliance.  CPI State Secretary D. Pandian confirmed his party's 
decision to join the CPM in an alliance with the AIADMK. 
 
More parties abandon the Congress-DMK alliance 
----------- 
 
¶3. (SBU)  The Left parties' defection is the latest from the grand 
alliance the DMK assembled that swept the 2004 parliamentary 
elections.  The MDMK was the first to depart, quitting the alliance 
and joining with the AIADMK in 2006.  In June 2008, the small, but 
influential PMK broke away from the DMK-led alliance (ref A).  Asked 
whether the PMK will also join the AIADMK-MDMK-Left alliance, 
Jayalalithaa said: "wait and see." 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Left parties' tie-up with Jayalalithaa's AIADMK is an 
unnatural one.  The CPM and CPI's core constituencies, labor unions 
and government employees, harbor a good deal of animosity towards 
Jayalalithaa because of her "anti-labor policies."  Memories of her 
dismissal of 150,000 striking government employees in a 2001 strike 
are still vivid.  Moreover, the leftist's secular constituencies are 
likely to be repelled by Jayalalithaa's perceived closeness to right 
wing Hindu leaders, including lightning rod Gujarat Chief Minister 
Narendra Modi (ref B).  Media contacts told post that CPM General 
Secretary Prakash Karat is willing to ally with the AIADMK despite 
their ideological difference in an effort to make up for his party's 
expected losses in Kerala and West Bengal. 
 
BJP left out in the cold, at least until after elections 
--------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Tamil Nadu BJP leaders have long hoped for a pre-poll 
alliance with Jayalalithaa's AIADMK.   Gujarat Chief Minister 
Narendra Modi's January 2008 visit to Jayalalithaa's home stoked 
those hopes.  But the AIADMK-Left alliance shuts the door on that 
dream as the BJP and communists cannot coexist.  This puts the Tamil 
Nadu BJP in a bad spot:  its leaders have acknowledged to us that 
without an alliance with either the DMK or the AIADMK they cannot 
win a single parliamentary seat in the state. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Comment:  The AIADMK-Left alliance in Tamil Nadu is 
symptompatic of the BJP's wider woes in South India.  With the 
exception of Karnataka, the BJP's weakness means that it needs 
allies in order to win parliamentary seats in the south, most 
critically in the big states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.  But 
the party's alliance prospects look grim right now with the AIADMK 
teaming up with the communists in Tamil Nadu and the Andhra Pradesh 
BJP generally believed to be without a single ally.  That said, a 
big BJP win in North India in the upcoming parliamentary elections 
could change the calculus entirely.  In such a circumstance, there 
is no doubt that the some of the south's regional parties -- 
especially Jayalalithaa's AIADMK (with its ideological and personal 
affinities with the BJP) - would break pre-poll commitments and join 
the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance to form a government. 
Opportunism is, after all, the ruling principle of the southern 
regional parties.  End comment. 
 
KAPLAN