VZCZCXRO5886
RR RUEHAST RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD RUEHTM
DE RUEHBR #1666/01 3641040
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 291040Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3180
INFO RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 3260
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 7033
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 8849
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 001666 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR OES/PCI - L.SPERLING 
DEPT FOR OES/ENCR - C.KARR-COLQUE AND C. DENNIS 
DEPT FOR OES/EGC - D.NELSON AND T.TALLEY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV KGHG KSCA EAGR BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL: ANNUAL 2007/2008 REPORTS SHOWS MIXED RESULTS IN 
CONTROLLING AMAZON DEFORESTATION 
 
REF: A) BRASILIA 1462, B) BRASILIA 1159, 
C) BRASILIA 750 
 
BRASILIA 00001666  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (U) THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED AND NOT FOR 
INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  In its annual deforestation report, the 
Brazilian National Space Research Institute (INPE) concluded that 
for the August 2007 to July 2008 period deforestation in the Amazon 
Forest rose by 3.8 percent to 11,968 square kilometers.  At a 
seminar on December 18, Environment Minister Carlos Minc 
acknowledged that the deforestation rate had increased after three 
years of decline from a peak of 27,000 square kilometers in the 
2003/2004 period. Further, INPE reported that the area of the Amazon 
Forest that was degraded, but not yet considered deforested, had 
almost doubled from 14,915 square kilometers in 2007 to 24,932 
square kilometers in 2008.  Nonetheless, there were some positive 
notes, in particular a dramatic 80 percent decline in the area 
deforestation in the last three months of this period (which covers 
the period since Minc entered into office).  Similarly, Minc noted a 
drop in the rate of deforestation in 22 of the 36 municipalities 
targeted for special measures as "hot spots".  The overall rise in 
the deforestation rate comes at an inconvenient time as the 
Government of Brazil (GOB) in December announced domestic targets to 
reduce the annual rate to approximately 6,000 square kilometers by 
2017 through its National Plan for Climate Change (REFTEL A).  END 
SUMMARY 
 
¶3.  (SBU) On December 5, the Brazilian National Space Research 
Institute (INPE) announced the total deforestation numbers for the 
August 2007 to July 2008 period.  The analysis found a total 
deforestation area of 11,968 square kilometers, which represents a 
3.8 percent increase when compared to the previous period.  At a 
seminar on December 18, Environment Minister Carlos Minc noted, "All 
of the previous estimates had predicted a rocket high increase in 
total deforestation.  [Even the Environment Minister had] expected 
numbers in the 14 to 15 thousand square kilometer range." 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Regarding the future, Minc was emphatic, "I want zero 
deforestation".  A clear reference to the GOB's recently launched 
National Plan for Climate Change goal of reducing to zero "illegal" 
deforestation and the goal of planting by the year 2015, more trees 
than the number cleared .  For the 2008/2009 period, Minc predicted 
that the rate would resume a declining trend and drop to about ten 
thousand square kilometers. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Minister Minc was pleased to point out a remarkable bright 
spot.  INPE determined that only 28 percent (or 3,300 square 
kilometers) of the annual deforestation happened in the period of 
April through July, which is the dry season and typically accounts 
for over 70 percent of the annual clearing.  This year's final 
quarter figure represents a decrease of 80 percent  compared with 
the same period in the last three years.  "The decrease for these 
months is a clear sign that the law enforcement measures taken by 
the government are working", explained the Director of INPE Gilberto 
Camara.  (NOTE: Minc did not have to mention that he became 
Environment Minister in the end of May 2008, so that the vast 
majority of the destruction occurred on his predecessor's watch. 
END NOTE.) 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The State of Para was the leading state in deforestation, 
with a total area of 5,180 square kilometers (NOTE: The number 
represents a 5 percent decrease compared to the 2006/2007 numbers. 
END NOTE) of forest cleared, followed by the State of Mato Grosso 
(3,259 square kilometers compared with 2,678 the year before, an 
increase of 22 percent).  These two states comprised over seventy 
percent of the country's total deforestation.  An especially 
worrisome number came from the State of Maranhao with the third 
worse total of 1,085 square kilometers cleared.  This number 
represents a greater than 75 increase when compared to the previous 
year.  Maranhao State Environment Secretariat representative 
Raimundo Calixto explained that his secretariat had few people and 
had only been created in April 2006.  For them, monitoring 
deforestation is something very new,said Calixto.  He added that the 
illegal deforestation resulted from expanding soy production and 
also production of charcoal for pig iron plants. 
 
ARE ADDITIONAL LAW ENFORCEMENT EFFORTS WORKING? 
 
¶7.  (SBU) At a December 18 seminar, Minister Minc, Minister of 
Science and Technology Sergio Rezende, and INPE Director Camara 
discussed the results of deforestation efforts before a packed hall. 
 
BRASILIA 00001666  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 Minc credited tougher, more robust law enforcement efforts for the 
sharp decline in the deforestation rate in the last quarter of the 
period.  He highlighted the need to have carrots in addition to 
sticks.  "We can close down 100 illegal jobs [involved in 
deforesting] in an hour, but we can't create 100 new ones in an 
hour," he commented.  He expressed optimism that the Amazon Fund 
(REFTEL B) would soon be supporting projects and payment for 
environmental services, possibly starting as early as in March 2009. 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) One of the tougher measures Minc hailed was the 
Presidential Decree creating Park Guards, which when implemented 
will strengthen the government's presence in the Amazon.  He also 
highlighted the measure to cut off government agriculture credits to 
the 36 "hot spot" municipalities with the highest rates of 
deforestation.  Twenty-two of these 36 municipalities reported a 
reduction in deforestation for the 2007/2008 period. The Brazilian 
environmental agency (IBAMA) recently estimated that 76 percent of 
the deforested area was cleared to create pastures for cattle. 
Similarly, deforestation in large plots - bigger than 300 hectares 
in size - was also brought down significantly.  COMMENT.  These 
initial results suggest that the stepped up enforcement actions and 
monitoring operations seem to be having positive effect.  However, 
the spotlight on the 36 municipalities had the side effect of 
pushing the deforestation into adjacent areas which reported 
increased deforestation rates over the last year.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The Plan for a Sustainable Amazon (PAS) unveiled in May is 
supposed to help create alternative, legitimate jobs in the Amazon 
(REFTEL C).  PAS is overseen by Roberto Mangabeira Unger, the 
Minister for Strategic Planning.  At the December 18 seminar, 
Minister Minc criticized the plan saying that the PAS is "blocked" 
and that there was a certain "lack of integration" among different 
sectors of the GOB.  He lamented that his ministry was blamed for 
high deforestation rates when other parts of the government were 
also responsible for addressing parts of the deforestation problem. 
 
 
NOT MUCH TO CELEBRATE - DEGRADED LANDS AT RISK 
 
¶10.  (SBU) A new monitoring system has detected an ominous 
development in the Amazon.  INPE has developed a new system called 
DEGRAD that can detect partially cut, but not yet cleared, areas. 
The previous system PRODES was not able to provide that level of 
analysis.  According to this new system, although the areas of 
deforestation land measured in the last two years were almost equal, 
the area of forest degraded (yet not completely cleared) jumped from 
an estimated 14,915 square kilometers in 2007 to 24,932 square 
kilometers in 2008, representing a 67 percent rise.  "It is much 
more likely that clear-cutting will occur in areas that have already 
been degraded than in areas where the forest is intact", stated INPE 
Director Gilberto Camara. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) COMMENT.  That the 2007/2008 deforestation numbers were 
not worse came as a relief to the GOB.  As Minc conceded, the 
government had been braced for a much higher figure.  The overall 
rise in the deforestation rate did come at an inconvenient time as 
the GOB on December 1 had just announced domestic targets to reduce 
the annual rate to approximately 6,000 square kilometers by 2017 
through its National Plan for Climate Change.  Despite the overall 
bad news, there are some positive developments, not the least of 
which is the GOB's heightened concern about the deforestation 
problem in the Amazon.  This points to the GOB being willing to 
commit more effort and resources to tackling the problem.  The 
Brazilian government has its work cut out for it, especially with 
the enormous quantity of partially degraded land poised to become 
clear cut in the near future.  END COMMENT. 
 
KUBISKE