VZCZCXRO5814
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #1338/01 3640929
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 290929Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0815
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNS/NSC WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 001338 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE (P. PETERSON) 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR SR
SUBJECT:  CONGRESSMAN POE'S MEETING WITH SERBIAN FOREIGN MINISTER 
JEREMIC 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Tangible progress toward European integration in 2009 - 
namely EU candidacy status and visa liberalization - is necessary 
for Serbia to weather the coming economic crisis and avoid 
destabilization, Foreign Minister Jeremic told Congressman Ted Poe 
on December 19.  Jeremic asked for U.S. help in convincing the 
European Union to welcome Serbia, as well as for some "breathing 
room" on issues related to Kosovo.  Jeremic expressed regret that 
the Serbian government had not put forth a viable alternative to 
Kosovo independence during the negotiations, and described an 
Ischinger-type model (coexistence without recognition) as the best 
possible scenario for eventual Serbia-Kosovo relations.  Linking 
Serbia's success to regional stability, Jeremic cautioned that both 
Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo could become "new Gazas." 
The Foreign Minister expressed hope that Serbia could "turn the 
page" with the United States in 2009 and forge strong relationships 
with both the new Congress and the Obama administration.  End 
Summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) During a December 19 visit to Belgrade, Congressman Ted Poe 
(R-TX) met with Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic.  Jeremic was 
accompanied by MFA Political Director Borko Stefanovic, DCM of the 
Serbian Embassy in Washington Vladimir Petrovic, and MFA advisor 
Damjan Krjnevic-Miskovic.  The Ambassador, pol chief (notetaker), 
and poloff (control officer) also participated. 
 
 
2009 Will Be Difficult for Serbia 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Foreign Minister Jeremic opened the conversation by 
telling Congressman Poe that 2009 would be a difficult year 
economically for Serbia.  After briefly summarizing the challenges 
Serbia had faced in 2008 -- namely Kosovo's declaration of 
independence and a difficult electoral cycle -- Jeremic explained 
that his country and the region had nevertheless managed to achieve 
a state of equilibrium.  He expressed fear that the global economic 
crisis would kill foreign direct investment, weakening Serbia's 
economy at the very moment when the new pro-European government was 
trying to deliver on its electoral promises of European integration 
and prosperity.  Jeremic warned that without tangible progress 
toward Europe, the coming economic difficulties could destroy 
Serbia's fragile equilibrium and cause nationalism to resurge. 
 
 
Frustration with EU Accession Process 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Jeremic claimed that Serbia could be ready for EU 
membership within four to five years but was stymied by one country 
- the Netherlands - blocking its candidacy over the issue of 
cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former 
Yugoslavia (ICTY).  Terming the issue "a lousy excuse," Jeremic 
argued that Serbia was fully cooperating by doing everything in its 
power to locate the remaining two indictees, Ratko Mladic and Goran 
Hadzic.  Jeremic asked that the United States continue to help 
Serbia overcome the EU's "paralysis" and achieve both EU visa 
liberalization and candidate status in 2009.  EU membership remained 
Serbia's top long-term goal, he said, and was supported by 67% of 
the population.  This "Euro-enthusiasm" would wane without tangible 
progress soon, Jeremic added. 
 
 
"Give Us a Break" on Kosovo 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Repeatedly emphasizing what he termed the historic 
significance of Serbia's peaceful reaction to Kosovo's declaration 
of independence, Jeremic said his primary short-term task was to 
make sure that Kosovo did not become a political problem in 2009, 
particularly with the incoming U.S. administration.  Serbia had 
successfully compartmentalized the independence issue by sending the 
question to the International Court of Justice, and had resolved the 
question of day-to-day administration of the "province" by agreeing 
to the deployment of the EU Rule of Law Mission (EULEX), he said. 
Claiming that the USG had not understood Serbia's reasons for 
conditioning its support for EULEX - "you just said 'those crazy 
Serbs are making problems again'" - Jeremic told Congressman Poe 
that the complicated domestic political situation required the 
Serbian government to take certain steps. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Jeremic pleaded for the United States to "give us a break" 
on Kosovo in 2009.  "I can't ask you to stop lobbying for Kosovo 
 
BELGRADE 00001338  002 OF 003 
 
 
recognitions, but we hope for a pause" to let the issue calm down, 
he said.  He stressed that the international community should not 
press Serbia to recognize Kosovo, because that would never be 
possible; Serbia did not want to be put into the position of having 
to say no and thus jeopardize its EU aspirations. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Referring to the complicated situation in Kosovo following 
the declaration of independence, Jeremic said that "you guys made a 
mess, but we were stupid for not giving you an alternative."  He 
expressed regret that Serbia had not pursued in 2007 Wolfgang 
Ischinger's "creative idea" of an East Germany-West Germany model 
for Serbia and Kosovo, whereby the two entities could coexist 
without mutual recognition.  Asked by Congressman Poe how he 
envisioned the relationship in five years, Jeremic said that such a 
German model was the best Serbia could hope for "if we are lucky." 
He identified Kosovo FM Skender Hyseni as someone who could be a 
constructive interlocutor since he was not a "war criminal," but for 
the fact that diplomatic protocol forbids their having direct 
contact; he described other Kosovo leaders as having "the blood of 
civilians on their hands." 
 
 
Serbia's Integration Key to Regional Stability 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Turning to the question of regional stability, Jeremic 
named Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo as the two greatest challenges 
and claimed each risked becoming a "new Gaza."  Bosnia-Herzegovina 
was now "on the path to spontaneous disintegration," Jeremic said, 
which would be disastrous.  Serbia did not want to see Republika 
Srpska secede, leaving a rump Bosnia that was "small, poor, Muslim, 
and angry."  Likewise, Jeremic claimed, Kosovo could become unstable 
if and when the Europeans - through EULEX - decided to combat the 
trafficking in drugs, arms, and people that currently provided 70% 
of its income.  Jeremic said that Serbia's continued stability and 
EU integration was the key to stability for both Kosovo and 
Bosnia-Herzegovina. 
 
 
Relations with the United States 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Congressman Poe asked whether the Serbian government was 
acting to identify and prosecute those responsible for the February 
21 attack on the U.S. Embassy.  Jeremic, offering his personal 
apology for the attack, said that the instigators had paid a 
"political price" as they had been removed from government and the 
security agencies.  He noted that the MFA had reimbursed the USG for 
the full cost of the repairs. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Jeremic said that his government was eager to forge a 
strong relationship with the new Congress, adding that he hoped 
Congressman Poe would join the Serbia Caucus.  Serbia also wanted to 
"turn the page" in 2009 and establish good relations with the new 
U.S. administration, Jeremic said; they did not want to miss the 
opportunity for a fresh start as they had in 2001 with the Bush 
administration. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Jeremic told Congressman Poe that he hoped the new 
Congress would not pass any "gilt edged" resolutions supporting 
Kosovo independence in the near future, as that would force him to 
"say something nasty in response" in order to reassure the Serbian 
public.  Jeremic explained that in the Serbian political atmosphere, 
such statements by government leaders actually had the effect of 
calming down, rather than spinning up, the public.   He said that 
the Serbian government's response to Montenegro's recognition of 
Kosovo had been designed with this in mind: they had orchestrated a 
"theatrical" presentation of the letter expelling the Montenegrin 
ambassador in order to publicly demonstrate anger and resolve.  The 
maneuver had satisfied Serbian public opinion and put an end to 
calls for further action that would have had a long-term negative 
impact on the bilateral relationship, such as denying free health 
care and education to Montenegrins, Jeremic said.  He stressed that 
other than the departure of the Montenegrin Ambassador from 
Belgrade, the bilateral relationship of the two countries had not 
changed at all. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Jeremic's comments on the nexus between domestic politics 
and foreign policy were the clearest explanation we have heard for 
his frequent antagonistic public rhetoric.  While that doesn't make 
Jeremic any easier to listen to, it is an interesting window into 
 
BELGRADE 00001338  003 OF 003 
 
 
his mindset.  We also note that Jeremic did not utter the word 
Russia once during the hour-long meeting, despite his recent public 
statements that Russia would be Serbia's most important bilateral 
relationship in the coming decades.  End Comment. 
 
¶13.  (U) Representative Poe has cleared this cable. 
 
MUNTER