VZCZCXYZ0004
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBW #1243/01 3381547
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 031547Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0702
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNS/NSC WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS BELGRADE 001243 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: ATTACKS ON G-17 PLUS CREATE UNCERTAINTY IN 
GOVERNING COALITION 
 
REF:  BELGRADE 1222 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) A rising crescendo of public criticism of G-17 Plus leader 
Mladjan Dinkic and high-profile party appointees such as the 
director of Belgrade "Nikola Tesla" airport has prompted speculation 
that some within President Tadic's Democratic Party are seeking to 
oust G-17 Plus from the government.  Dinkic and his senior party 
leaders maintain that the attacks are being organized by those 
interested in concluding the NIS energy deal with Russia as soon as 
possible, and that there is no threat to G-17 Plus' position within 
the governing coalition.  End Summary. 
 
 
Airport Manager Resigns 
----------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) In late November a drumbeat of criticism of Belgrade Airport 
General Manager Bojan Kristo, a G-17 Plus appointee, culminated in 
parliamentary debate on November 25.  The opposition Serbian Radical 
Party (SRS), New Serbia (NS), Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS), and 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) called on the government to dismiss 
Kristo for paying himself a monthly salary of $4,680 and a $14,950 
bonus in June.  They also criticized Kristo for paying bonuses of 
$5,850 to seven other top officials of the publicly-owned airport. 
Kristo resigned on November 26. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Given the relatively small sums of money involved in a 
country where large-scale corruption scandals are common, many 
observers saw the campaign to oust Kristo as a proxy war against 
governing coalition member G-17 Plus and its outspoken leader, 
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Mladjan Dinkic. 
Aviation professionals, on the other hand, agree that Kristo had no 
qualifications whatsoever to be director of the airport and that had 
had been responsible for the airport's lack of development.  They 
blamed the political "key" process for inflicting political 
appointees into professional positions in exchange for support for 
the coalition.  G-17's announced plans to refill the position based 
on merit were welcomed by the professionals. 
 
 
Media Attacks on Dinkic 
----------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) Dinkic appeared on the popular B-92 program "Utisak Nedelje" 
(Impression of the Week) on November 30 to discuss the Kristo issue. 
 He also raised the numerous articles attacking him that "Kurir" and 
other right-wing tabloids have published over the past several 
months, displaying about twenty newspapers with incendiary 
headlines.  Dinkic named the controversial owner of the "Kurir" and 
"Glas" tabloids, Radisav Raja Rodic, and "mafia-journalist" Gradisa 
Katic as executing the campaign.  (Katic, the former editor-in-chief 
of the weekly tabloid "Identitet," was arrested in 2003 in Operation 
Saber, the organized crime roundup conducted after the assassination 
of former PM Zoran Djindjic.  Katic was accused of working for the 
Zemun Gang, which organized the murder in cooperation with rogue 
elements of the special operations police unit.) 
 
¶5.  (U) The program's host commented that the tone of the attacks 
against Dinkic was as vicious as the campaign against Djindjic just 
before his assassination.  Dinkic alleged that unreformed parts of 
Serbian Intelligence Agency (BIA), Russian interests, some tycoons, 
and "persons with warrants against them" were behind the attacks, 
due to his efforts to drive a better bargain with Russia on the NIS 
energy deal (reftel).  He said that a recent meeting with President 
Tadic had resolved his initial fears that an effort was underway to 
oust G-17 Plus from the governing coalition. 
 
¶6.  (U) Dinkic's lawyer Zeljko Ristic told "Politika" on December 2 
that Dinkic had met with State Prosecutor Slobodan Radovanovic on 
November 24 in order to discuss the attack articles, including some 
which accused him of committing criminal acts.  According to Ristic, 
Dinkic asked Radovanovic to examine the veracity and soundness of 
the articles. 
 
Party Line: It's all about the Energy Agreement 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Foreshadowing Dinkic's public comments, G-17 Plus 
Executive Board president Tomislav Damnjanovic told us on November 
26 that the campaign against Kristo was politically motivated and 
linked to the NIS energy deal with Russia, noting that G-17 Plus was 
still against the specifics of the agreement.  Damnjanovic said that 
although the SRS, NS, and DSS had led the charge against Kristo in 
Parliament, other parties were also involved in the attacks.  "Look 
at what parties within the coalition want the gas deal" to be 
 
concluded, he said (read: DS and SPS).  Damnjanovic asserted that 
the governing coalition remained stable despite the current 
tensions. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) In a December 1 meeting, G-17 Plus party whip Suzana 
Grubjesic also linked the Kristo affair and the media campaign 
against Dinkic to the NIS energy deal.  She described both as part 
of a broader campaign directed by presidential media advisor Nebojsa 
Krstic to undermine Dinkic and sideline him from the negotiations 
with Russia, commenting that she "did not buy" Dinkic's insinuation 
on "Utisak Nedelje" that high levels of DS were not involved. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) When asked whether the campaign against Dinkic represented 
an effort to oust G-17 Plus from the government, Grubjesic said that 
it was impossible to know who all was involved or what their goals 
were.  She told us that she had long wanted G-17 Plus to provide 
minority support rather than participate in a government with the 
SPS and controversial Jagodina Mayor Palma's United Serbia (JS), but 
"for now" she was still in the minority within her own party; she 
thought that as time went by and the dynamics of government 
prevented her party from fulfilling its campaign promises (most 
notably infrastructure funding), the mood within G-17 Plus might 
shift. 
 
 
Alternate Version: Tadic Wants G-17 Plus Out 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Despite G-17 Plus' denials, there is much speculation 
among the Belgrade chattering classes that the Kristo affair is the 
opening salvo in an effort to remove Dinkic's party from the 
governing coalition, to be replaced either by Cedomir Jovanovic's 
LDP or Tomislav Nikolic's Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). 
(Comment:  This choice arguably constitutes one of this century's 
oddest Serbian political quandaries, with LDP representing the 
extreme left and SNS the extreme right of the political spectrum. 
End Comment.) LDP MP Ivan Andric told us that during a mid-November 
meeting with "Otpor" founders in which he participated, President 
Tadic complained about how difficult it was to deal with G-17 Plus 
and the Pensioners' Party, and floated the idea of early elections 
to consolidate the Democratic Party's rising popularity. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Former G-17 Plus vice president Cedomir Antic echoed this 
interpretation of events to us on December 2, claiming that Nikolic 
had been referring to G-17 Plus in recent comments to the press when 
he said that the SNS was ready "to help the DS if it gets rid of the 
mobsters" in the government.  Antic estimated that there is a 10-30% 
chance of new elections in the spring; he believed the limiting 
factor would be the difficulty in explaining to the IMF why new 
elections were necessary during an economic crisis.  Before the 
Kristo affair became public, G-17 Plus deputy whip Vlajko Senic also 
intimated privately to us that there were "negative dynamics" in the 
relationship with DS. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Given the penchant for political intrigue within DS 
leadership it would not be a surprise to learn that Tadic was toying 
with the idea of a coalition reshuffle or early elections.  This 
option clearly would be a disaster for Serbia and would signal the 
extent to which the President is out of touch with his electorate. 
Needless political maneuvering continues to monopolize Serbia's 
politicians' attention and energy, while the government itself is 
almost completely stalled.  The mountain of legislation necessary to 
move Serbia into the EU has not moved noticeably.  Through three 
elections in 2008 Serbs voted for a European future; their 
politicians would do well to listen to their people rather than 
indulging in senseless backroom politics.  End Comment. 
 
 
BRUSH