VZCZCXRO4569
OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHBK #3632/01 3470914
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 120914Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5366
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/CJCS WASHDC
RHHMUNA/USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003632 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR H AND EAP/MLS, PLS PASS TO SENATOR WEBB 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR MOPS PINS TH
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SENATOR WEBB'S VISIT TO THAILAND 
 
¶1. (SBU) Senator Webb, Embassy Bangkok looks forward to 
welcoming you to Thailand.  Your visit will afford a chance 
to express the United States' commitment to working with a 
democratically-elected Thai government and to affirming U.S. 
commitment to the bilateral relationship, particularly our 
important military alliance, at a time of political 
uncertainty and transition in Thailand. 
 
ENDURING BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Thai public closely watched our recent 
Presidential election, and the results received much scrutiny 
regarding the potential impact on U.S.-Thai relations.  Thai 
government officials have expressed strong interest in 
hearing assessments of the transition to a new administration 
and U.S. policy towards Southeast Asia.  We have stressed to 
the Thai we do not anticipate significant changes in our 
bilateral relationship due to the history and strength of our 
alliance and the nature of long-standing U.S.-Thai security, 
economic, and cultural bonds.  However, the changing 
generations in both Thailand and the U.S. require both sides 
work hard to maintain the vibrancy in the relationship. 
 
THAI POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT - YELLOW AND RED 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The recent dissolution of the People's Power Party 
(PPP) and the fall of the government of former PM Somchai has 
appeared to quiet, even if only temporarily, the political 
situation.  Gone are the street protests by the 
anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) which 
shut down Bangkok's airports for a week and occupied the 
formal seat of government for over three months.  But the 
basic deep split in society and the body politic remains, 
with the traditional royalist elite, urban middle class, 
Bangkok, and the south on one side ("yellow" in shorthand) 
and the political allies of ex-PM Thaksin, currently a 
fugitive abroad, along with largely rural supporters in the 
North and Northeast ("red") on the other. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Parliament is likely to elect a Prime Minister 
on December 15; for the moment, negotiations between various 
political factions continue.  Calling a new election does not 
appear to be a viable solution to political divide, and 
political turmoil could very well persist for years.  The 
steadiest figure on the political stage the past four months 
has been Army Commander Anupong Paochinda, who has 
steadfastly rejected pressure from both sides for the army to 
intervene in the political stalemate, either to conduct a 
coup d'etat or to clear the streets of protesters.  We 
continue to stress to Thai interlocutors the negative 
ramifications of a coup and the need for all parties to avoid 
violence and respect democratic norms within the framework of 
the constitution and rule of law. 
 
¶5. (SBU) King Bhumibol turned 81 on December 5.  Many had 
anticipated his commentary for his annual address to the 
nation on the eve of his birthday; his address was canceled, 
however, after he fell ill with bronchitis.  The Palace has 
since announced the King's recovery.  The King was 
hospitalized for a period of weeks in late 2007 and has 
appeared frail in some recent public appearances.  The King's 
passing, whenever that may be, will shock Thailand.  Crown 
Prince Vajiralongkorn is the King's designated heir. 
However, the current King's enormous personal prestige, the 
lack of a precedent for royal succession during the modern 
era (King Bhumibol has been on the throne since 1946), and 
changing sentiment about the role of the institution in the 
21st century suggest that the transition will be difficult. 
 
THAI ECONOMY STRUGGLES TO OVERCOME CHALLENGES 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Over the past few years, Thailand's economy has been 
growing at a moderate pace, though the long-running political 
uncertainty has stifled domestic investment, hamstrung 
government stimulus programs, and kept Thailand from keeping 
up with other ASEAN nations.  The worldwide economic slowdown 
of recent months has hit Thailand particularly hard as 
exports, the one bright spot in GDP growth, have fallen, 
causing growth forecasts for 2009 to be ratcheted down from 
 
BANGKOK 00003632  002 OF 002 
 
 
4% to less than 2%.  This dreary scenario was made much worse 
by the November airport closures, which devastated Thailand's 
large tourism and convention industries just at the beginning 
of the high season. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Historically, Thailand's economy has hummed along 
unaffected by frequent political squabbling, but the recent 
willingness of political actors to take actions that clearly 
damage the economy and the nation's international image is 
changing that tenet.  Thailand's largest foreign investors, 
Japanese in particular, have expressed deep dismay at the new 
turn in events.  The effect of the airport closures has not 
yet shown up in the data, but FDI (especially from the U.S.) 
was already trending down for 2008. 
 
¶8. (SBU) On other issues of bilateral interest, the U.S. and 
Thailand have extensive cooperation in medical research; 
several important breakthroughs in AIDS treatment, for 
example, have been developed here.  Thailand has made great 
strides in dealing with child prostitution and other labor 
abuse issues, but trafficking-in-persons continues to be a 
challenge given Thailand's geographic position as a transport 
hub surrounded by poor countries and a history of weak law 
enforcement.  While Thailand has developed the infrastructure 
to support intellectual property rights, enforcement, again, 
is weak. 
 
IMPORTANT MILITARY ENGAGEMENT PROGRAM 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) By means of access to good military base 
infrastructure and large areas to conduct almost unrestricted 
operations, Thailand gives the U.S. military a platform for 
exercises unique in Asia.  Thai leaders are far more willing 
to host multilateral exercises than are other countries in 
Asia.  This has allowed us to use our exercises in Thailand 
to further key U.S. objectives, such as supporting Japan's 
growing military role in Asia and engaging the Indonesian 
military.  We are on track for a very successful iteration of 
the COBRA GOLD exercise in February 2009.  Cobra Gold, the 
largest military exercise in the PACOM region, continues to 
advance our goal of promoting joint and combined military 
operations in our partners of Thailand, Indonesia, Japan, and 
Singapore. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Thailand's willingness to allow the United States 
to use Utapao Naval Air Station as the hub for our regional 
assistance program was key to making the 2004 tsunami and the 
2008 Cyclone Nargis relief operations a success.  Our 
military continues to use Utapao as stop off point for 
flights for ongoing operations in South Asia. 
 
THE INCREASING ROLE OF CHINA 
---------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Thai leaders continue to develop closer relations 
with China while simultaneously emphasizing the vital role of 
the U.S. in the region.  While Thai military links with the 
United States are deeper and far more apparent than Sino-Thai 
links, China's growing influence in Thailand and Southeast 
Asia is evident in business, the arts, the media, and the 
military.  The Thai military has a range of Chinese weapons 
systems in its arsenal; the PLA Navy is building closer links 
with the Thai navy, and China has worked with Thailand to 
improve air defense equipment provided to Thailand in the 
late 1980's.  In 2007 and 2008, Thai and Chinese special 
forces conducted joint exercises, and other mil-to-mil 
exchanges have expanded in recent years as has the number of 
bilateral military VIP visits. 
JOHN