VZCZCXRO2499
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0821/01 3450737
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 100737Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1846
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000821 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/FO AND AF/E 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ECON CN
SUBJECT:  Comoran President Sambi Popular and Assertive 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY:  With life again relatively normal in the Comoros, 
President Sambi is riding a renewed tide of popularity; fuel and 
power supplies are adequate and the general mood is hopeful.  The 
President remains committed to reconciliation and democracy, but his 
priority is economic development.  Having all but abandoned hope of 
any "inter-Comorian Dialogue," he is moving ahead towards a 
constitutional referendum in May 2009, and using other legal means 
at his disposal, to reinforce institutions and obtain adequate 
authorities to accomplish his objectives.  Suspicions remain, 
however, that he may use the referendum to extend his term beyond 
¶2010.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. An upbeat President Sambi received the Ambassador in his Anjouan 
office for over an hour on December 7, excitedly taking about his 
plans to build schools and basketball courts.  The day after 
thousands of Anjouanese turned out to see the President for an 
International AIDS Day celebration on Anjouan (which the Ambassador 
and Comoros Officer also attended), he appeared calm (as usual) but 
more confident and assertive.  The President's mood reflected his 
rebounding popularity among Comorans, evidenced by positive reaction 
to his public appearances, approval of his plans (including the 
referendum), success in reinstating fuel supplies and repairing 
roads in Moroni -- and increasing popular impatience with the 
blocking tactics of the opposition.  In addition to building a few 
schools, the President talked excitedly about the investments of 
Kuwait-based Comoro Gulf Holdings, including a new plan for small 
ports to inter-connect the three islands of Comoros with ferries. 
President Sambi said daily travel and exchanges between Comorans of 
the three islands is vital to creating a true culture of unity. 
 
¶3.  The Ambassador congratulated Sambi on progress in improving 
Comoros' international image but emphasized the importance of first 
impressions as the new American administration takes office.  "I 
have been clear," the President said, "the rotation will take 
place," (Note:  Under the Comoran constitution, the Presidency 
rotates from island to island every four years; after Grande Comore 
(Azali) and Anjouan (Sambi), it will be Moheli's turn in 2010. End 
Note).  President Sambi asserted that his constitutional referendum, 
which he said he plans to hold in May 2009 at the same time as 
parliamentary elections for the Union, Anjouan, and Moheli, will not 
change the rotating presidency.  He said he is inclined to extend 
the President's term and to make it renewable - "but not applicable 
to my tenure."  He reiterated his points about the current 
constitution being "unworkable:" four presidents, four 
constitutions, four parliaments, 38 ministers (under the IMF deal 
these are already being reduced to 26), and expensive elections 
every year.  He complained the "parliament blocks everything," 
adding that 50 GOC bills sat in the National Assembly unvoted. 
President Sambi glossed over the recent drama at the National 
Assembly over the "economic citizenship law," averring the GOC 
followed procedure and had a clear majority (18 of 33) in the 
parliament on this bill. 
 
¶4.  Among provisions to "improve" the constitution, President Sambi 
said he will grant the National Assembly the authority to "sanction" 
Ministers, adding a legislative check on the executive.  The 
Ambassador commended the President for this kind of move to 
reinforce democratic institutions and encouraged more of the same. 
The President declared he was committed to "democratic principles," 
adding that the censure capability will give Ministers an incentive 
to cooperate with - and show respect toward -- parliament.  In 
addition to rationalizing the electoral calendar by aligning various 
mandates to co-terminate, Sambi's referendum will change island 
"presidents" to "governors," while reducing the size of their 
governments and their authority.  While island officials cry foul 
for an "attack on island autonomy," Sambi said he believes the 
Comoran people support him and believe the constitution must be 
revised to allow the Union to accomplish its goals.  Despite 
political disputes, President Sambi proudly noted that the National 
Assembly had passed unanimously on December 6 the "2008 Amended 
Budget" to stay on track for IMF Emergency Post Conflict Assistance 
(SEPTEL). 
 
¶5.  Noting USG focus on national reconciliation, the Ambassador 
asked about the inter-Comoran dialogue.  The President replied that 
his main opponents - the presidents of Grande Comore, Moheli, and 
the National Assembly - all refuse to talk.  Sambi said he had met 
with "notables" (elder leaders) from all three islands and they 
support him.  He suggested that further dialogue with notables from 
all three islands would provide a productive forum for inter-island 
dialogue in the lead-up to the May referendum. 
 
¶6. COMMENT:  If political popularity is a zero-sum game, President 
Sambi's current high is proportionate to the increasing isolation 
and desperation of opposition leaders Bounou (National Assembly 
President, from Moheli) and Abdouwahabi (Grande Comore Island 
President).  For now electricity is on most of the day, gas stations 
have fuel, the roads in Moroni have been redone, schools are open, 
salaries six months in arrears are hoped to be paid soon, investors 
from the Gulf are highly visible, and life is "normal;" Sambi gets 
 
ANTANANARI 00000821  002 OF 002 
 
 
most of the credit.  While he repeatedly tells us he will "respect 
the rotation," he has also stated publicly his willingness to 
shorten or lengthen his mandate (due to end in May 2010) in order to 
align elections.  His recent steps to consolidate his power, coupled 
with an expected IMF deal December 15, will give the President 
leverage to advance his agenda in 2009. 
 
¶7.  COMMENT CONTINUED:  Despite calls - including from us - to 
demonstrate leadership to convene the inter-Comoran dialogue, Sambi 
is convinced that he has tried, but failed in the face of opposition 
intransigence; indeed, there is a strong case to be made that this 
is true.  During the most recent mission of African Union Special 
Envoy Madeira, the Union again made entreaties to the opposition. 
At a December 3 meeting with the diplomatic corps, Abdouwahabi 
flatly refused to send even technical-level island officials to 
preparatory talks to "discuss what would be discussed."  Abdouwahabi 
and Bounou's intransigence now is leading to their increasing 
political isolation, refusing all formats for inter-island talks and 
giving Sambi an excuse to hold the referendum.  Sambi told the 
Ambassador that he has even invited the Island presidents to attend 
Union cabinet meetings - "so they can see that I have no secrets" - 
but they have also refused that invitation.  If current trends 
continue, Sambi looks now to be on course to win his referendum 
gamble next spring.  The main variable - much on everyone's minds - 
is which provision he will select with respect to the end of his 
current term.  END COMMENT. 
 
STROMAYER