VZCZCXRO4011
RR RUEHDE
DE RUEHAM #3292/01 3461623
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 111623Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY AMMAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3964
INFO RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI 1262
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 6125
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO 3854
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID 0114
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 0465

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 003292 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR H/RGF 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC JO OREP PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: JORDAN SCENESETTER FOR DECEMBER 14-16 VISIT OF 
CODEL DORGAN 
 
REF: STATE 128942 
 
¶1. (U) Embassy Amman welcomes the December 14-16 visit to 
Jordan of Codel Dorgan.  Jordan remains one of the United 
States' strongest partners in promoting peace and security in 
the Middle East and is active in a broad range of regional 
engagement activities. 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Summary: King Abdullah is approaching his 10th 
anniversary on the throne of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. 
 He has used his stewardship to drive economic and political 
reform and advocate for stability and moderate governance in 
the region, within the limits of Jordan's influence.  Jordan 
maintains a close relationship with the USG, facilitated by 
strong military and foreign assistance programs.  End Summary. 
 
Jordan's Engagement with the USG 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Jordan maintains a close relationship with the USG, 
and King Abdullah is firmly supportive of U.S. priorities and 
initiatives.  The United States and Jordan share a long 
history of cooperating to achieve shared goals, many achieved 
through U.S. assistance.  Jordan is appreciative of the 
recent budget supplemental and grants which brought the total 
amount of non-military aid in 2008 to USD 561.4 million, an 
increase of 120% from 2007, making Jordanians some of the 
highest per-capita recipients of foreign assistance.  A 
non-binding Memorandum of Understanding signed in September 
by the Secretary of State and Foreign Minister Salah 
Al-Bashir outlined U.S. support over the next five years 
proposing USD 360 million per year in Economic Support Funds 
(ESF) and USD 300 million per year in FMF.  USAID's wide 
range of projects in Jordan strengthens water resources 
management, local governance, health and education systems, 
the judiciary, tourism, protection of the environment, 
alternative energy sources, and economic development.  Jordan 
in recent years has received USD 200-300 million in FMF, 
used, in part, to educate over 200 officers in annual IMET 
programs.  CENTCOM has its most extensive exercise program in 
Jordan, conducting 12 multilateral/bilateral exercises 
annually with Jordanian Armed Forces support and 
participation. 
 
Demographics 
------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) Jordan's population of 6 million is split primarily 
between East-Bank Jordanians (Jordanians whose families trace 
their heritage to the East Bank of the Jordan River), and 
Palestinian-origin Jordanians (and their descendants) who 
arrived in Jordan in 1948 after the first Arab-Israeli war, 
and in 1967, following Israel's occupation of the 
then-Jordanian West Bank.  There are approximately 1.9 
million UNRWA-registered refugees inside Jordan (some of whom 
live in 13 designated refugee camps).  The vast majority of 
Palestinian-origin Jordanians (including most of the 
registered refugees), however, hold Jordanian citizenship and 
are integrated into Jordanian society and dominate the 
business sector. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Jordan is also host to numerous Iraqis who have fled 
the conflict and its after-effects, and has made efforts to 
extend access to social services to them.  The GOJ is 
reluctant to formally classify the Iraqis as refugees, 
because of concerns that a new permanent refugee populace in 
Jordan would further erode the demographic position of East 
Bankers already compromised by the large influxes of 
Palestinians.  The GOJ emphasizes that hosting the Iraqis has 
been a burden on the budget, and seeks international aid to 
ease their already tight fiscal situation.  USD 200 million 
of Jordan's FY 2008 economic assistance supplement is 
intended to aid the displaced Iraqis in Jordan.  Note: The 
GOJ's official figure of Iraqi refugees is between 
450,000-500,000, although some estimates from organizations 
working with the refugees are significantly lower.  End note. 
 
 
Politics 
-------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Jordan's Prime Minister and cabinet are all 
 
AMMAN 00003292  002 OF 003 
 
 
appointed by the King.  King Abdullah advocates political 
reform, though his efforts are slowed by a recalcitrant 
bureaucracy, a conservative political establishment, and the 
GOJ's focus on economic reform.  The government is dominated 
by East Bank tribes - historically, a key pillar of Hashemite 
rule - and accelerated change could alter the long-standing 
status quo they find favorable.  Still, the King has made 
some progress on political reform.  In 2005, he commissioned 
the National Agenda, a document designed to serve as a reform 
roadmap for the next decade.  Domestic political opposition 
(and indeed, the only effective political party) lies with 
the Islamic Action Front (IAF), the political wing of the 
Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood (JMB) with six seats in 
parliament, whose primary support base lies in Jordan's 
Palestinian-origin population. 
 
Foreign Policy 
-------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Jordanian foreign policy encourages stability by 
supporting moderate governance throughout the region.  King 
Abdullah has publicly stated that the lack of progress in 
resolving the Israeli-Palestinian dispute is the greatest 
threat to stability in the region.  The King is a staunch 
backer of the Annapolis process, and frequently and publicly 
calls for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian 
crisis.  He backs Palestinian Authority President Mahmud 
Abbas, whom he considers the legitimate representative of 
Palestinians in both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. 
 
¶8. (SBU) King Abdullah has supported U.S. goals in Iraq, 
including offering support for Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri 
Al-Maliki's government, whom PM Dahabi hosted in June.  The 
visit resulted in the renewal of a 2006 oil deal between Iraq 
and Jordan to provide Jordan with oil at discounted prices, 
although consistent implementation of the deal has been 
hindered by security and technical issues.  In August, the 
King became the first Arab head of state to visit Iraq since 
the fall of Saddam Hussein.  Following his visit, Jordan 
returned an Ambassador to Baghdad, its first envoy since a 
2003 attack on its embassy. 
 
The Economy 
----------- 
 
¶9. (U) Jordan has few natural resources and is the fourth 
most water poor country in the world.  Nevertheless, King 
Abdullah has focused heavily on economic reforms and GDP 
growth has averaged almost 6 percent in recent years. 
Investment from Gulf Arab countries has been strong and 
Jordan has also benefited from exports of phosphate and 
potash (used to produce fertilizer) and garments to the U.S. 
It remains dependent, however, on foreign assistance and on 
remittances from its well-educated populace working abroad. 
 
¶10. (U) The King and his advisors continue to foster Jordan's 
transition from an aid-based economy to a self-sustaining, 
trade-based one.  To this end, the GOJ has worked closely 
with USAID to reform its regulatory environment and to 
encourage foreign investment by making the Kingdom a good 
place to do business.  As a result of bilateral engagement, 
the U.S. has emerged as Jordan's leading trade partner, as 
Jordan's Free Trade Agreement with the U.S. (signed in 2001), 
and its Qualifying Industrial Zones (QIZs - established in 
1996 in part to promote Israel-Jordan ties) allow for easy 
access to the American market.  Jordan also belongs to the 
WTO and has or is developing trade relationships and 
agreements with the EU, the Greater Arab Free Trade Area, 
Singapore, Canada, Pakistan, Turkey, and China.  Still, the 
economic situation is precarious with complaints that the 
benefits of economic reform have not reached the masses, a 
situation exacerbated by the global increases in fuel, food, 
and commodity prices, as 
well as the depreciation of the dollar, to which the 
Jordanian Dinar is pegged, and resulting double-digit 
inflation. 
 
Energy 
------ 
 
¶11. (SBU) To limit Jordan's dependence on foreign oil, King 
Abdullah initiated a civilian nuclear energy program to 
overcome the economic burden of importing energy, 
complemented by efforts to increase renewable energy and add 
other indigenous sources to Jordan's energy mix.  In response 
 
AMMAN 00003292  003 OF 003 
 
 
to recent hikes in world crude prices, Jordan has faced 
pressure to implement the new strategy as quickly as possible 
and competing priorities have emerged.  The Cabinet suspended 
in August ongoing feasibility studies, tenders, and other 
activities in oil shale exploration within central Jordan for 
a period of up to 18 months in order to first explore uranium 
mining in that region.  The GOJ and France recently signed an 
agreement for the French company Areva to mine for uranium. 
No agreements have been signed yet to provide nuclear 
reactors. 
 
¶12. (SBU) In addition to meeting with the French on nuclear 
energy, Jordan has engaged the Chinese and South Koreans. 
During the King's September visit to China, his sixth trip to 
the country as part of his ongoing efforts to broaden 
Jordan's ties with Asia, the Jordanian delegation signed a 
non-binding memorandum of understanding on uranium 
exploration and several smaller agreements on the peaceful 
uses of nuclear energy and scientific exchanges.  A bilateral 
Nuclear Cooperation Agreement (123 Agreement) is under 
interagency review with a goal of presidential signature 
before the end of the calendar year. 
 
Visit Amman's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman 
Beecroft