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PP RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDS #3441/01 3590953
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 240953Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3216
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 7645
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEPADJ/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEWMFD/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003441 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL MOPS KPKO SO ET
SUBJECT: IGAD SANCTIONS SOMALIA PRESIDENT YUSUF 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  Intergovernmental Authority for 
Development (IGAD) foreign ministers met December 21 in Addis 
Ababa to discuss the political and security situation in 
Somalia.  They praised the Somali parliament and Prime 
Minister for rebuffing President Abdullahi Yusuf,s recent 
ham-handed attempt to install a new government.  The foreign 
ministers endorsed travel and asset sanctions against Yusuf 
for undermining the government and obstructing the peace 
process.  They congratulated the Transitional Federal 
Government (TFG) and Alliance for the Re-Liberation of 
Somalia (ARS)/Djibouti for agreeing to a unity government.  A 
follow-on meeting between the TFG and ARS will be held 
January 10.  The Ethiopian foreign minister reaffirmed that 
Ethiopian troops would leave Somalia on or about December 31; 
the foreign ministers urged more AMISOM troops and greater 
materiel and financial support to TFG and ARS forces to 
maintain order after the Ethiopians leave.  End Summary. 
 
IGAD Sanctions President Yusuf 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On December 21 IGAD foreign ministers met in Addis 
Ababa to discuss continued political squabbling between 
Transitional Federal Government leaders and the Ethiopian 
National Defense Forces, (ENDF) imminent withdrawal from 
Somalia. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin, chairing 
the meeting, spoke for the group when he praised the Somali 
parliament for endorsing Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein 
"Nur Adde" and his new government over President Abdullahi 
Yusuf, who earlier in the month had tried to oust the prime 
minister.  The gathering recognized Somalia,s new foreign 
minister, Mohammed Mahmud Goala, who was present.  The 
ministers also noted positively the Somali parliament's 
endorsement of the unity government plan proposed during the 
November 25 round of Djibouti peace talks.  They urged swift 
implementation.  The Djiboutian foreign minister announced 
another round of peace talks on January 10. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The ministers endorsed the immediate sanctioning of 
President Yusuf for his effort to oust the prime minister. 
Kenya, Djibouti, and Uganda in particular urged tough 
communique language, and encouraged other international 
organizations, specifically the AU and UN, also to consider 
sanctioning Yusuf.  Separately, the Kenyans told us they were 
gathering data on Yusuf,s assets and his associates, but 
would not commit to a date for sanctions. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) On the security situation, Seyoum reiterated 
several times that the Ethiopian pull-out from Somalia was 
"irreversible," and would begin on or about December 31 and 
take no more than five days.  He said some Ethiopian troops 
had already begun to leave Mogadishu.  Seyoum was 
disappointed recent meetings in New York had failed to secure 
a commitment on a UN peacekeeping operation.  There was 
consensus among the ministers that if Uganda's troops 
withdrew along with Ethiopia's, violence would escalate 
destroying all hope for a UN force or political settlement in 
the future.  Ugandan FM Sam Kutesa urged the Ethiopians to 
withdraw in a "responsible" manner, to avoid a precipitous 
collapse of Mogadishu's fragile security.  He also warned 
that AMISOM,s mandate had to be modified if it were to make 
and keep peace in Mogadishu.  Kutesa noted that to remain in 
Somalia, "there must be Transitional Federal Institutions to 
support," and that "Uganda's decision to stay was 
reversible."  Seyoum and others urged AU chairman Lamamra to 
rush newly pledged Ugandan and Burundian troops to Mogadishu, 
saying he understood the troops were ready and could be flown 
in within days.  Lamamra recounted Nigerian President 
Obasanjo,s promise of an immediate battalion. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Seyoum also urged IGAD countries and international 
donors to take immediate steps to bolster the TFG,s capacity 
to defend itself, particularly by supplying security forces 
with salaries and weapons.  Djibouti agreed, saying that 
Prime Minister Nur Adde told him the TFG could gather 6,000 
troops and the ARS 3,000, if only there were vehicles, cash 
and supplies to support them.  Seyoum, referring to an 
internal UNDPKO paper which presented three scenarios for 
Somalia, mooted the possibility Mogadishu's security would 
not deteriorate after Ethiopia's pull-out; he cited an 
internal UN memorandum suggesting one result might be new 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00003441  002 OF 002 
 
 
opportunities for national reconciliation.  Privately, Seyoum 
told the Deputy Special Representative to the Secretary 
General for Somalia that he was disappointed the UN paper 
suggested this scenario. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Seyoum's message to the IGAD leaders was clear and 
unambiguous.  His message was Ethiopia is leaving Somalia, 
and if the international community does not want chaos in 
Somalia, then the United Nations and the African Union should 
act.  Seyoum said Ethiopia would no longer wait for a 
peacekeeping force that he did not believe was coming.  He 
reiterated that the ENDF would not serve as a bridge force 
until more AMISOM troops could be deployed, and that it was a 
fallacy to think that Ethiopian troops would remain in 
Somalia until May or June. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  IGAD's decision to impose sanctions on Yusuf, a 
sitting African leader, set a historic precedent for Africa, 
but to have any teeth the member states will have to enforce 
such sanctions.  Nevertheless, IGAD went further than the 
African Union Peace and Security Council which on December 22 
declined to sanction Yusuf because he was a sitting African 
leader, and instead decided to sanction Mohammed Mahamud 
"Gamodheere," Yusuf's intended replacement for Nur Adde. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  Comment continued.  PolOffs from Embassy Nairobi 
and Embassy Addis Ababa, along with an Italian PolOff, 
representing the IGAD Partners Forum, and the UN Deputy 
Special Representative for Somalia, were the only non-African 
observers who attended the closed session.  Therefore, the 
meeting was a unique opportunity to see the IGAD ministers 
discuss the issues at close range.  As Embassy Addis' PolOff 
is well known to the Ethiopian State Minister for Foreign 
Affairs who also attended, it is Post's assessment that the 
Ethiopian government wanted the USG to hear clearly the 
message that Ethiopia had to deliver.  There was obvious 
tension in the room between FM Seyoum and AU Commission 
Chairman Jean Ping and AU Peace and Security Commissioner 
Ramtane Lamamra, who wanted Ethiopia to delay their 
withdrawal until more AMISOM troops could be deployed, as 
well as tension between Seyoum and Ugandan FM Sam Kutesa who 
wanted a "responsible withdrawal."  Seyoum looked all three 
men in the eye, and insisted that Ethiopia's decision to 
leave was "irreversible."  End Comment. 
YAMAMOTO