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Viewing cable 08ACCRA1604, GHANA: THE MIDFIELD ECONOMIC GROWTH MODEL

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08ACCRA1604 2008-12-23 15:04 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Accra
VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHAR #1604/01 3581504
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 231504Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY ACCRA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7412
INFO RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 0798
RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 1791
RUEHPC/AMEMBASSY LOME 2185
RUEHCO/AMEMBASSY COTONOU 0825
RUEHAB/AMEMBASSY ABIDJAN 0822
RUEHBP/AMEMBASSY BAMAKO 0355
UNCLAS ACCRA 001604 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON PGOV PINR GH
SUBJECT: GHANA: THE MIDFIELD ECONOMIC GROWTH MODEL 
 
1.  SUMMARY: An economic analyst with ties to ruling party NPP 
candidate Nana Akufo-Addo praised the Kufuor Administration's 
economic record, noted remaining problems, and laid out key economic 
policy proposals and benchmarks necessary for the success of the 
next President of Ghana.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  At an economic talk for President Kufuor, his economic advisors, 
and the diplomatic community, Dr. K.Y. Amoako, a former UN Under 
Secretary General and head of African Center for Economic 
Transformation (ACET), an economic think tank with ties to the 
ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), praised the Kufuor 
Administration's economic record, identified a few problem areas, 
and laid out his economic policy proposals and benchmarks for 
success by the next President of Ghana. 
 
3.  K.Y., as Dr. Amoako is known, is rumored to be one of NPP 
presidential candidate Nana Akufo-Addo's unofficial economic 
advisors.  Although K.Y. did not claim to be speaking for the 
candidate or the party, his selection as keynote speaker for the 
event attended fully by President Kufuor underscored the weight of 
his words. 
 
 
ECONOMIC STRATEGY: PLAY THE MIDFIELD 
------------------------------------ 
 
4.  K.Y. proposed what he termed the "MIDFIELD" strategy for 
transformational economic growth, playing on Ghana's infatuation 
with soccer, a goal of reaching middle income status in the next 
seven years, and what the speaker characterized as the country's 
role playing both offense and defense in the regional and global 
economies.  His points, the acronym for "MIDFIELD," follow. 
 
5.  M: Modernizing agriculture.  K.Y. claimed that no country with 
the size of Ghana's agricultural sector (36 percent of the economy) 
could realize economic improvements without agricultural 
modernization.  Ghana's main strategy should be to increase its 
higher-value agricultural exports, such as livestock and processed 
agricultural products.  He also saw the need for introduction of an 
inventory control system, a strengthening of property rights, and 
optimization of land use through changes to land management policies 
-- which he said traditional regional leaders such as tribal chiefs 
would oppose, but was necessary nonetheless for Ghana's growth. 
 
6.  I: Investing in infrastructure.  K.Y. told the politicians, 
economists and policymakers assembled that Ghana had among the 
poorest quality of infrastructure in the world (88 out of 100 
countries), with the GOG currently not meeting the minimum spending 
threshold to achieve Millennium Development Goals in infrastructure, 
which he pegged at 10 percent of GDP for a decade, from 2005 to 
2015.  He cited the PRC's cost-recovery policy as one way to create 
a first-class infrastructure base. 
 
7.  D: Diversifying exports.  Ghana has spent too long focusing on 
traditional exports of gold, cocoa and lumber.  K.Y. called for 
focus on the service sector, long underdeveloped in Ghana.  This 
tied in to agricultural modernization with a proposed expansion of 
horticulture and the food processing industry. 
 
8.  F: Fundamental financial system reforms.  The speaker asked the 
audience to consider both basic reforms such as improving the 
country's system of land registries, which are a drag on land use, 
and more innovative measures.  In a country where funerals are major 
expenses and events for families, he proposed funeral lending by 
banks (NOTE: Ghanaian banks are notoriously conservative in their 
consumer lending.  END NOTE).  He also proposed loosening current 
regulations stifling microfinance in the countryside. 
 
9. I: Increasing regional integration.  The economist also said it 
was too difficult to cross borders in West Africa, greatly hindering 
regional trade in ECOWAS.  K.Y. stated the need for the West African 
Gas Pipeline, which has taken 26 years to near fruition and is still 
hampered by supply problems in Nigeria.  He also called for more 
regional airlines in West Africa to alleviate chronic road transport 
obstacles and to facilitate unrealized trade with nearby countries 
such as Mali. 
 
10.  E: Enhancing employment.  Improvements in private sector growth 
in urban areas of Ghana have unfortunately led to unemployment in 
rural areas, K.Y. stated.  He bemoaned a decline in manufacturing, 
now at only 6.4 percent, a two point drop from earlier in the 
decade.  He called for growth in small and medium enterprises in 
order to encourage innovation and job creation.  K.Y. noted that 
SMEs only contribute 10 percent of GDP, but they could, and should, 
be as high as 50 percent of Ghana's economy.  One reason for the 
dearth of SMEs was that they can be the hardest element of the 
economy for government bureaucrats to comprehend and assist. 
 
11.  L: Leveraging technology.  Calling technology the bedrock of 
transformational economic growth, K.Y. called for more research in 
scientific and technology fields.  He noted that ICT (information 
and communications technology) was one of the most vibrant sectors 
of the economy. 
 
12.  D: Delivering transformation through the developmental state. 
This requires lean, efficient institutions (NOTE: sorely lacking in 
Ghana.  END NOTE) focused on 1) a vision of how to decentralize 
governance; 2) macroeconomic stabilization and rightsizing the 
current account deficit; 3) understanding one's own endowments and 
competitive advantages; and 4) protecting the vulnerable in society. 
 
 
 
A SCORECARD FOR THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION 
--------------------------------------- 
 
13.  K.Y. offered three indicators that he would be closely 
monitoring in the next government to determine whether its economic 
policies are successful.  They are: 
 
  o  Progress on Millenium Development Goals through 10 percent 
decreases in a) Ghana's infant mortality rate, b) the rate of deaths 
from childbirth, and c) HIV/AIDs and malaria infection rates. 
 
  o  30 percent growth in manufacturing and service sector 
employment in order to create work for Ghana's youth, avoiding the 
economic destabilization caused by youth under-employment. 
 
    o  25 percent growth in the university student population, which 
K.Y. sees as necessary to increasing human capital in Ghana and 
complementary to other factors of production. 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
14.  Recalling Africa's post-colonial history, Amoako stressed that 
institutions and ideas matter.  Whether the ruling party candidate 
will pay heed to the MIDFIELD game plan, or if it is even 
achievable, is unclear.  But its common sense approach, grounded in 
pro-market economic principles and astute observations, is hard to 
refute.  Unfortunately for recent economic performance, politicians 
in pro-growth Ghana sometimes seek short-term gain at the expense of 
long-term development.  Seasoned economic observers point out that 
some of the elements of his plan are already contained in the 
government's Ghana Proverty Reduction Strategy (GPRS) I of 2003-2006 
and GPRS II of 2006-2009, but wonder why it is taking so long to 
achieve progress in these goals. 
 
 
TEITELBAUM