VZCZCXRO9533
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHAR #1530/01 3391454
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 041454Z DEC 08 ZFD
FM AMEMBASSY ACCRA
TO RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7333

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ACCRA 001530 
 
S U S P E C T E D  D U P L I C A T E 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV KDEM GH
SUBJECT: GHANA'S NORTH- HOLDING CALM PRIOR TO ELECTION 
 
 ¶1. (U)  SUMMARY. The people of Northern Ghana are preparing 
for the December 7 election with the same mix of campaigning, 
rallies and calls for peace as the rest of the nation.  The 
north's history of violence-- including some campaign related 
clashes earlier this political season-- is a source of 
concern to GOG authorities and others concerned about a 
peaceful election. POLOFF traveled November 26-29 in the 
Northern Region, visiting Tamale and Yendi, two areas with a 
history of localized conflict.  POLOFF met with NGO leaders, 
party officials, police and Electoral Commission 
representatives.  The Police and EC assert that they are 
ready for December 7. NGO and religious leaders describe a 
wide effort to promote a peaceful election, involving 
especially outreach to youth. END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U) Northern Ghana's recent history has included periods 
of conflict, including the 1994 "Guinea Fowl War" when an 
estimated two thousand people were killed in inter-ethnic 
clashes.  Among the Dagomba people there has been a dispute 
over who should succeed as Ya Na (or king), following his 
2001 murder in Yendi. The succession continues to stir 
passions particularly between two Dagomba clans, a situation 
complicated by occasional partisan involvement in the 
dispute. In September there were electoral related incidents 
in Tamale, resulting in the torching of houses and vehicles 
owned by NDP supporters. Northern Ghana (including the 
Northern, Upper East and Upper West Regions) has the highest 
percentage of Muslims in the country.  The area is also the 
poorest and has the highest level of illiteracy, conditions 
northerners are very much aware of and which feature in party 
manifestos. 
 
¶3.  (U) Despite these ethnic conflicts, there is no recent 
history in the region of sectarian conflict between 
Christians and Muslims, and the political parties draw 
supporters-- and candidates-- from both faiths.  In rural 
areas of the north, the villagers--  living in small clusters 
of houses-- fly the flags of their favorite parties.  In 
nearly every case POLOFF observed, villages were displaying 
multiple pennants, a sign that people of different political 
loyalties were otherwise living and working together. 
Northern Ghana has in past elections been a stronghold for 
the National Democratic Congress (NDC), although officials 
from the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) told POLOFF that 
they hope to narrow the gap this year, although not 
necessarily carry the Northern Region. 
 
 
Preparations Continue for the Election 
 
¶4. (U) The Regional Director of the Electoral Commission, 
Sylvester Kanyi, told POLOFF that preparations were ahead of 
schedule compared to the 2004 election.  All election 
materials had arrived, except for the ballots which were due 
the next day on an Air Force flight. (NOTE: The EC announced 
on December 1 that the ballots had been delivered to the 
regions.  END NOTE.) The training of polling agents-- the 
party representatives who observe at the polling stations-- 
was well underway. (NOTE: The following day, POLOFF attempted 
to meet with the Yendi District EC officer, but he was 
occupied with training agents. Several party representatives 
also said that their agents were receiving training.  END 
NOTE.)  Over 100 police officers had also received basic 
training in the election process, Kanyi added, noting that 
this should help with  election security. The Regional 
Director showed off his new fax machine, "delivered last 
week," which will allow him to send results to Accra on 
election night.  Asked about funding for the EC staff and 
operations, he said that he was "shocked" that the money 
arrived earlier in the week, and that the next day he would 
be able to pay his staff. 
 
¶5. (U) Mensah Gyeabour, the Deputy Regional Police Commander 
told POLOFF that "he was confident that the exercise would go 
smoothly."  Sticking close to his approved talking points, 
Gyeabour described planning for the election which will 
depend on the police acting as a first line of security, 
backed up by the military. The Deputy Commander said that the 
police would not allow crowds to form at polling stations 
during the day, and that candidates were being asked not to 
display or wear party colors near polling stations. The 
Police will guard the ballots ahead of the election-- a 
carpenter was nearby strengthening a storeroom door to better 
secure the materials.  The Police will guard not only polling 
stations but also key facilities, candidates for Parliament, 
and water and power facilities, showing concern over any 
effort to disrupt the election or discourage people from 
voting. The police will also have mobile teams, equipped with 
tear gas and live ammunition.  Returning Saturday to Accra, 
POLOFF saw two police armored vehicles being transported 
toward Tamale. (Comment: Several contacts confirmed to POLOFF 
that the police are not respected by the local population, 
but that the army is feared.  "One soldier can disperse a 
crowd," claimed a NDC official in Yendi. End Comment.) 
 
While Calls for a Peaceful Election Are Widespread 
 
¶6. (U) POLOFF met with Alhaji Hussain Zaharia, a previous 
recipient of an Embassy Human Rights Grant and Executive 
Director of the Community Development Youth Advisory Centre 
(CODEYAC), a vocational training center and social service 
agency.  Zaharia expressed concerns about how the on-going 
chieftaincy dispute among the Dagomba had cut across family 
and neighborhood lines and involved the two main parties.  He 
said that he believed that the opposition NDC had tried to 
capitalize on the 2001 killing of the Ya Na, and that some of 
the party's supporters believe that a NDC victory will help 
their faction in the succession struggle. However, Zaharia 
also described the many efforts in the Region to reduce 
tensions ahead of the election, including the Sustainable 
Peace Initiative, which is serving as a platform for peace 
building NGOs.  Religious leaders have been involved in peace 
promotion efforts, including a training program for forty 
imams of mid-sized mosques and twenty "free-lance" preachers 
who have been asked to bring a message of peaceful elections 
to at least ten mosques each, and to also speak at weddings 
and funerals.  Other efforts have involved outreach to 
traditional leaders, youth leaders and others who influence 
community opinion. 
 
¶7. (U) Vincent Boye-Nai has been the Bishop of the Roman 
Catholic Diocese of Yendi since 1999. He also described to 
POLOFF efforts to promote a peaceful election.  The Bishop 
explained that young people no longer trust traditional 
leaders, and are frustrated by the lack of opportunity in the 
area. He added that chiefs are less able now to control how 
their communities vote than in previous years. The Bishop 
also noted that some of the tension in Yendi comes from a 
split within the local branch of the NPP party.  The 
country's current vice-president is from the district, and 
does not get along with the incumbent member of parliament. 
The MP is running for re-election, but is facing not only a 
NDC candidate but also an independent with NPP leanings, 
raising the possibility of split NPP vote.  He believes that 
if there are problems with election violence, they will occur 
in the rural areas. He said that he had been working with 
other religious and community leaders on peace programs, 
particularly aimed at youth.  He added that the Diocese was 
providing election observers as part of the Coalition of 
Domestic Election Observers. 
 
¶8. (U) Near the Bishop's compound are both a Ghana Armed 
Forces camp and the compound of the former Ya Na, damaged in 
the 2001 attack that led to his death.  On the day of the 
POLOFF's visit, a large crowd of men had gathered at the 
site, listening to a speaker.  Adjacent to the compound, near 
a residential area, a handful of soldiers manned a sandbagged 
checkpoint.  POLOFF attempted to approach the soldiers, but 
was waved off with the explanation that the area was 
restricted. 
 
¶9. (U) POLOFF met with Fr. Marek Kowalik, a Polish Catholic 
priest and sociologist who has been in Ghana since 1986 and 
who now runs the Tamale Institute for Cross Cultural Studies, 
a training center for missionaries and NGO workers. He 
described the various peace making projects he had been 
involved with in Tamale, such as peace walks. He also noted 
the less than helpful influence of call in radio shows, where 
inflammatory statements are often aired. Fr. Kowalik also 
said that there were numerous weapons in the region, a legacy 
of the chieftaincy disputes. 
 
 
And the Parties Campaign for Votes 
 
10.(U) POLOFF met with NDC and NPP party officials in both 
Tamale and Yendi.  In both communities, NDC officials told 
how former President Rawlings had visited their communities 
earlier in the week, to reportedly large, enthusiastic and 
peaceful crowds. NDC officials complained about NPP abuse of 
incumbency, a common complaint among NDC members. The Deputy 
Regional Secretary in Tamale also said that the security 
agencies were biased, and pointed to the lack of arrests 
after a thousand voter registration forms were allegedly 
taken from a registration center earlier this year by NPP 
supporters who used gunfire to disperse onlookers.  Asked 
about the role of Islam in the election, the Deputy said it 
was not an issue, that northern Muslims were less concerned 
about a co-religionist being on the party's ticket than they 
were about the north's economic development. (NOTE: The NDC 
vice presidential candidate, John Mahama, is a northerner and 
a Christian, although of Muslim parents.  The NPP candidate, 
Mahamadu Bawumia, is a northerner and a Muslim. END NOTE.). 
 
¶11. (U) Not to be outdone, NPP officials were also willing to 
share their complaints.  In Tamale, the NPP regional 
secretary  admitted that the party was "the underdog" in the 
North, and would not win a majority, although he predicted 
gains. He said he was worried about security at the polling 
stations, and that NDC supporters would, as he alleged 
happened in the past, try to intimidate NPP supporters. He 
also warned against NDC efforts at multiple voting, noting 
the constituency of Tamale Central, won in 2004 by the NDC, 
had a "Saddamesque"--his term-- 97% voter turnout. He pointed 
to a NPP concert held a few nights before, where the event 
went off without incident. President Kufuor addressed a rally 
in Tamale the following day, after dedicating a water 
project.  NPP supporters , some on motorcycles with 
disconnected mufflers, the better to draw attention and 
demonstrate their enthusiasm.  But most of the citizens of 
Tamale seemed content to go about their normal business 
without visible signs of enthusiasm for the President's 
visit. 
 
 
¶12. (SBU) COMMENT.  There is a consensus among observers of 
Ghanaian politics that if there is to be election violence 
this year, it will most likely be in the north, where 
chieftaincy issues, poverty, and party manipulation come 
together to create a potentially volatile mix.  Opinion 
leaders were cautious. No one wanted to say that there 
wouldn't be problems, but no one--even the most overly 
dramatic party officials-- said that the region was on the 
brink of post-election chaos. The ingredients for problems 
are present, particularly the mixing of traditional 
succession struggles with partisan politics. But the efforts 
to promote peace are also present, in the work of NGOs and 
religious institutions. POLOFF was most intrigued, however, 
by the sight of the coalition of party flags flying over 
every rural village, and their statement-- perhaps not 
overtly intended-- that within very small communities people 
were supporting different parties, that apparently they felt 
safe and free enough to openly do so, and seemed to 
understand and accept that their political opponents were 
also the people they lived next door to.  END COMMENT. 
 
TEITELBAUM