O 280206Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5558
INFO ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000400 
 
 
STATE FOR EAP/ANP AND EAP/RSP; STATE PLEASE PASS TO JEFF 
HENSEL AT USAID/OFDA; PACOM FOR STEVE MELLINGER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2018 
TAGS: EAID MOPS PREL MARR NZ
SUBJECT: NEW ZEALAND, ASEAN AND THE ARF DISASTER RELIEF 
EXERCISE 
 
REF: A. A) STATE 123211 
     ¶B. B) STATE 122937 
 
Classified By: Pol/Econ Counselor Margaret McKean; Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
(C)  1.  Summary.  New Zealand is interested in the ARF 
Disaster Relief Exercise but will not make a final decision 
on participation until it receives a formal invitation from 
the Thai government.  The GNZ believes that financial issues 
will dominate the upcoming ASEAN meetings in Thailand, where 
New Zealand, Australia, and ASEAN are scheduled to sign a 
Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on December 17.  An MFAT official 
suggested a possible meeting of the ASEAN Ambassadors from 
the U.S., New Zealand, Japan, and Australia in Chiang Mai may 
be useful to discuss issues of overlapping interest and those 
outlined in reftel A.  End summary. 
 
ARF Disaster Relief Exercise 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C)    Pol/Econ Counselor met on November 25 with Tim 
McIvor of the Asia Division to discuss the ARF disaster 
relief exercise in the Philippines as well as the upcoming 
ASEAN summits.  On the ARF exercise, McIvor noted that the 
GNZ had heard about the exercise in Singapore when it was 
discussed by USG and Philippine government officials.  Both 
MFAT and MOD officials agree that the exercise is a good 
idea, and sent forward a policy recommendation within Defense 
House for consideration.  The policy recommendation, 
according to McIvor, included a suggestion for a C-130 
deployment and an engineering team.  McIvor stressed that the 
exercise is attractive to New Zealand because it represents 
the first time ARF would deploy assets rather than engage in 
tabletop exercises.  However, senior NZDF officials are 
reluctant to sign off on the recommendation until the Thai 
government issues a formal invitation.  (Comment:  Before 
approaching MFAT, PE Counselor contacted the Philippine 
Embassy regarding their role to date in informing the GNZ of 
the exercise; the Philippine Embassy was unaware of the 
exercise.  End Comment.)  McIvor urged the USG to keep the 
GNZ informed as planning progresses; McIvor indicated that 
USG specific requests to GNZ officials may help to focus the 
incoming government's attention on the exercise and ensure a 
positive response.  McIvor said that New Zealand agrees that 
the ARF should shift towards being a more action-oriented 
organization.  Disaster relief is discussed within a variety 
of East Asian fora, including APEC and EAS, he said.  In 
McIvor's opinion, however, ARF is ideally suited to play that 
role. 
 
ASEAN Summits 
------------- 
 
¶3.  (C)  On ASEAN, McIvor said that the financial crisis -- 
which dominated the recent APEC meetings -- would likely 
continue as the main theme in the upcoming ASEAN summits. 
Although the Thai government had earlier selected disaster 
management for consideration, the financial crisis is 
expected to take over as the key theme of the meetings. 
McIvor mentioned that the financial crisis was discussed at a 
Senior Officials Meeting (SOM) in Thailand a couple weeks 
ago, and a number of countries proposed a standalone 
statement from ASEAN on this issue.  Australia has done a 
draft that is circulating among EAS members and will be 
discussed next week in Tokyo by deputy Finance Ministers. 
McIvor anticipates four elements in such a statement: 
political intent to do something about the financial crisis, 
underscoring the seriousness of the issue; support for the 
Doha round of trade talks; reform of the global financial 
institutions, and the under-representation of Asia in the 
IFIs; and an EAS-specific initiative to support capacity 
building on regional finance issues.  New Zealand PM John Key 
and Foreign Minister Murray McCully will likely attend the 
EAS; Trade Minister Tim Groser is expected to go to Geneva 
for WTO meetings, said McIvor. 
 
¶4.  (C)  McIvor said that the GNZ is disappointed that the 
EAS schedule is compressed but understands that the 
government of Thailand is constrained by the domestic 
political situation.  McIvor discussed trade agreements under 
consideration within the EAS -- both the ASEAN plus three and 
ASEAN plus six Track 2 studies that are underway.  New 
Zealand, Australia, and ASEAN are prepared to sign an FTA on 
December 17, which New Zealand hopes will be the basis for a 
future EAS-wide FTA. 
 
¶5.  (C)  McIvor noted that regional human rights issues have 
been largely displaced as a result of the attention on the 
financial crisis.  He does not anticipate there will be much 
discussion of Burma or Fiji at the meetings, although there 
is likely to be mention of the DPRK and Afghanistan.  Other 
ambassadors accredited to ASEAN from Japan, Australia and New 
Zealand (Philip Gibson from Indonesia) will be in Chiang Mai, 
and McIvor offered that it may be useful for them to meet 
with US Ambassador Scot Marciel.  McIvor added that the ASEAN 
Human Rights Body that is provided for in the ASEAN Charter 
will be discussed during the meetings in Thailand. 
 
New Zealand and ASEAN in the Future 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C)  In terms of future goals, New Zealand will press for 
a regular NZ-ASEAN summit, which McIvor noted was included in 
MFAT transition papers for the new National Government.  New 
Zealand held an ad hoc summit with ASEAN in 2005 in Vientiane 
during the 30th anniversary of New Zealand-ASEAN relations. 
New Zealand has discussed the concept at officials levels, 
and now that ASEAN is moving to two summits per year, it may 
be easier to wrap a NZ-ASEAN summit into the schedule by 
perhaps meeting every other year.  New Zealand and Australia 
are both seeking to join the Asia Europe Meeting (ASEM), said 
McIvor.  Australia was the first to pursue ASEM membership, 
and the New Zealand government will be considering a 
pros/cons paper, he added.  If membership is opened to 
Australia, New Zealand should also move in that direction, 
said McIvor, although he added that ASEM would add another 
layer of meetings to an already crowded regional schedule. 
New Zealand will watch closely how Australian PM Rudd's 
proposal for an Asia Pacific Community resonates with ASEAN, 
as McIvor views such a construct as possibly threatening to 
ASEAN's central role in the EAS.  The APC could shift the 
center of gravity away from ASEAN, which McIvor anticipated 
would generate resistance from some ASEAN states. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Comment:  McIvor, who will be in Chiang Mai for 
the ASEAN meetings, is leaving Wellington after Thailand to 
assume the New Zealand ambassadorship in Dili, Timor Leste. 
He has been an exceptionally helpful colleague and strong 
advocate for improved US-NZ bilateral relations. 
 
 
McCORMICK