VZCZCXRO5180
RR RUEHDT RUEHPB
DE RUEHWL #0378/01 3120409
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 070409Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5519
INFO RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 1778
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 5306
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY 0745
RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 WELLINGTON 000378 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR STATE FOR EAP/ANP 
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NZ
SUBJECT:  NATIONAL LIKELY ELECTION WINNER 
 
Ref: Wellington 370 
 
WELLINGTON 00000378  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  One day before New Zealand heads to 
the polls, the odds appear to be stacked against Labour 
winning a fourth term in government.  Polls released in 
the last two days show the opposition National Party is 
maintaining a double-digit lead over Labour.  The 
economy is the main election issue, followed by law and 
order, which have been consistent winners for the 
opposition National Party.  Most media pundits already 
have called the election for National, although some 
analysts have reminded voters that Labour overcame a 
poll deficit in 2005 to narrowly win.  The question is 
whether National will be able to form a coalition 
government, or will Helen Clark prove the master 
collation builder once more.  End Summary. 
 
Polls Promise National Win 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  If the latest polls are to be believed, 
National may be coasting to victory at the polls on 
November 8.  The TV One and TV 3 polls released on 
November 6 show National in the lead, with TV One 
giving National a 12-point lead and TV 3 nearly the 
same at 13 points.  A Colmar Brunton poll also showed a 
12-point gap (47 percent for National and 35 percent 
for Labour).  The latest Herald Digi-poll had National 
at 48 percent and Labour at 36 percent.  Finally, the 
Fairfax-Nielsen poll on November 7 showed National 
ahead of Labour by 18 points (49 versus 31 percent). 
Averaging out the five polls puts National at roughly 
47 percent and Labour at 34 percent.  Media analysts 
note that the minor party polling results would give 
National supporters ACT and United Future three or four 
seats meaning that National would not need the Maori 
Party to take control of the government if these poll 
results hold.  PM Clark has dismissed the final polls, 
saying that they are "all over the place" and 
unreliable. 
 
¶3. (U)  The economy remains the number one issue going 
into the November 8 election.  The November 6 Herald 
Digi-poll showed (as did previous polls) that the 
economy, at thirty-two percent, was the issue most 
likely to influence voters.  Moreover, the number of 
respondents who believed that the National Party is 
best able to handle the financial difficulties facing 
New Zealand (fifty percent) clearly outweighed those 
who believed that the incumbent Labour Party would 
(forty-one percent) do best.  Labour has continued to 
focus its economic policies on government-funded and 
government-led initiatives.  The few exceptions have 
been where Labour has tried to mirror some of the well- 
received ideas of National. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  National has made considerable effort to 
persuade voters that it has greater competence on 
economic issues and to reassure voters that it will not 
dramatically change direction or undercut existing 
social safety nets.  John Key, a former international 
money trader, has asserted that he is better equipped 
to understand the current turmoil in the global 
financial markets than Clark, a career politician.  He 
has also stressed that many of his front-bench MPs have 
real world experience outside government that will keep 
National attuned to moving the economic levers in ways 
that favor the majority of working New Zealanders.  Key 
has offered economic policies that New Zealanders 
generally find attractive such as larger tax cuts and a 
focus on infrastructure development.  Key is not the 
unabashed free-market deregulator that has kept some 
moderate New Zealand voters away from National in the 
past.  Rather, his public-private economic management 
philosophy appeals to voters who have questioned the 
Labour government's intervention on economic issues, 
such as the decision to buy back the rail network 
earlier this year. 
 
Law and Order a Focal Point 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU)  Law and order issues have consistently placed 
second behind the economy on a list of issues likely to 
influence voters.  The November 6 Herald-Digi-poll 
showed law and order as the second-most important issue 
 
WELLINGTON 00000378  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
to voters.  Over the past three years, widely reported 
recurrent incidents of violent crime, parole violations 
by recidivist offenders, increase in drug-related 
crime, and organized criminal activity have left many 
New Zealanders fearing that their country is not the 
safe haven it was once thought to be. 
 
¶6. (SBU)  National has emphasized a firmer response for 
youth offenders and no parole for worst repeat 
offenders.  With regard to correctional matters, 
National favors incarceration over Labour's tendency to 
promote rehabilitation.  Labour has been reluctant to 
acknowledge that law and order is a growing problem in 
New Zealand, claiming that the media are simply 
reporting more violent crime.  They may be right, but 
that has not mattered.  The policy void has given 
National a distinct political advantage, particularly 
since police organizations have applauded National 
policy proposals. 
 
Clark's Trust Argument Has Not Changed Polls 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU)  From the outset of the campaign, Clark has 
promoted trust as a central theme of the election.  She 
was campaigned on her years of executive experience and 
her ability to form governments in the intricate MMP 
environment (reftel) in contrast to Key's own relative 
inexperience.  Clark has continued to do better 
personally in the polls than has her party.  She has 
repeatedly sought to undermine Key's character by 
presenting him as deceitful and as having a secret 
hard-right agenda.  But Labour's recent attempts to 
attack Key's character by trying to implicate him in a 
decades-old financial scandal fell flat.  Moreover, 
Labour Party President Mike Williams flew to Australia 
at taxpayer expense to pursue the Labour Party's 
investigation into Key's potential relationship to this 
issue, which became a point of embarrassment for Clark. 
Recently, Clark had to contend with further revelations 
about Winston Peters and the Owen Glenn scandal, which 
also pointed to Clark being less than honest about how 
much she knew regarding Peters' potential conflict of 
interest in the Owen Glenn affair. 
 
Debates Favored Key 
------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU)  On November 5, the last of three debates 
between Clark and Key took place, and media analysts 
and commentators awarded a slim victory to Clark. 
However, on balance experts and the public alike 
thought that Key was the overall victor in the debate 
series.  It is not certain whether Key's strong debate 
performance will translate into increased support on 
Election Day.  It did, however, serve to strengthen his 
Prime Minister-in-waiting credentials and showed that 
he could go head-to-head with Clark, a formidable 
debater. 
 
"Only a Miracle Can Save Labour" 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU)  Many from the media have already called the 
election for National.  One of New Zealand's most 
respected political journalists wrote on November 6 
that there was already a popular sense National would 
lead the next government.  John Armstrong of the New 
Zealand Herald, the country's biggest daily newspaper, 
observed that "the pervading question is no longer 
whether Labour has any chance of winning; it is now the 
margin by which National will win."  Armstrong believed 
that the drive has gone out of Labour's campaign and 
that party "does not have much left to deploy" ahead of 
Election Day. 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  The Dominion Post, another daily newspaper, 
featured a front-page headline saying "Time for a 
Change," and citing the 49-31 percent poll results 
favoring National from the latest Fairfax-Neilsen 
polls.  Most journalists have been hedging their bets, 
noting that Labour narrowly squeaked by to win in 2005 
based on a strong get-out-the-vote effort by Labour 
Party faithful in South Auckland that tipped the 
balance for Labour.  Clark has been spending 
considerable time in South Auckland at the end of the 
 
WELLINGTON 00000378  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
campaign to try and shore up support from the party 
base. 
 
Comment:  Who Will Win the Second Campaign? 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  Although the polls have narrowed over the 
past 10 months, National is still commanding a 
consistent double-digit lead over Labour going into 
tomorrow's election.  But winning the election is not 
enough.  Unless National polls over 50 percent, which 
few expect, they will need to form a coalition. 
National Party officials are quietly optimistic that 
they will stay above the 47 percent mark, which means 
they would likely be in a position to govern with ACT 
and United Future, and would not need the Maori Party. 
But in the complex world of MMP politics in New Zealand 
and as voters witnessed in 2005, Helen Clark cannot be 
ruled out to deliver an upset victory. 
 
McCormick