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DE RUEHVL #0997/01 3331247
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R 281247Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3109
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 VILNIUS 000997 
 
AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 28, 2008 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy 
Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
International Relations 
----------------------- 
 
- Lukashenka Notes Positive Changes in EU-Belarus Relations (para. 
2) 
- Lukashenko Signed Two Edicts in Support of Cooperation with the 
European Commission (para. 3) 
 
Health 
------ 
 
- 9,423 Officially Recorded HIV-Positive People in Belarus (para. 
4) 
 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
- Lukashenka on Criminal Code (para. 5) 
- Two Opposition Papers Allowed Distribution Via State-Owned 
Networks (para. 6) 
- Key Suspect in Disappearance of Opposition Politicians 
Hospitalized (para. 7) 
 
 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
- National Bank Takes Steps to Limit Imports (para. 8) 
- Lukashenka Maintains His Economic Policies Still Efficient, 
Suggests Controversial Methods to Address Challenges (para. 9) 
 
International Trade 
------------------- 
 
- Russian Ambassador on Status of Russia-Belarus Relations (para. 
10) 
 
Quote of the Week (para. 11) 
---------------------------- 
 
----------------------- 
International Relations 
----------------------- 
 
¶2.  Lukashenka Notes Positive Changes in EU-Belarus Relations 
 
In a November 24 interview with Agence France-Presse (AFP), 
Belarusian President Lukashenka noted "positive changes" in 
Belarus-EU relations.  He praised his "thoughtful" multilateral 
foreign policy, aimed at supporting the country's economic 
sustainability.  Lukashenka asserted that Belarus has no intent and 
resources to address any super strategic global concerns: its 
ultimate goal it to have good relations with Russia, Europe and the 
U.S. and all three should realize that and share the same interest. 
 
¶3.  Lukashenko Signed Two Edicts in Support of Cooperation with the 
European Commission 
 
Presidential press service reported that Lukashenka signed edicts 
633 and 634 on November 20 to facilitate cooperation with the 
European Commission.  Edict 633 approves the conclusion of the 
framework agreement with the European Commission that would 
determine the status and conditions of EU technical assistance 
programs in energy, customs infrastructure, illegal migration, 
international crime, environment and other areas.  Edict 634 adapts 
the national law to the EU-Belarus agreement on the establishment of 
the European Commission representative office in Belarus.  The edict 
allegedly seeks to provide favorable conditions for Office's 
operations in the country. 
 
------ 
Health 
------ 
 
¶4.  9,423 Officially Recorded HIV-Positive People in Belarus 
 
Health Ministry official Lyudmila Naroychik told the news conference 
in Minsk on November 25 that there are 9,423 officially recorded 
HIV-positive people in Belarus, about 0.1 percent of the population. 
 The number of such people is growing year after year.  Most of them 
are aged 15-29.  The largest number of HIV-positive people reside in 
Gomel district: 4,937.  The official also noted a steady growth of 
HIV prevalence among women. 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
 
VILNIUS 00000997  002 OF 003 
 
 
------------- 
 
¶5.  Lukashenka on Criminal Code 
 
In his AFP interview, Lukashenka also said the regime would be ready 
to remove the Article on Libel from Belarus' Criminal Code if the EU 
and the U.S. want that and are "ready to come up with something in 
return."  He also reiterated Belarus has no political prisoners 
because it has no notion of "political crimes" in its Criminal Code. 
 Finally, he pledged he would run for president again if his health 
permits and people feel good about him. 
 
¶6.  Two Opposition Papers Allowed Distribution via State-Owned 
Networks 
 
Chief editor of "Narodnaya Volya" Yosif Seredich told the Belapan 
news agency that he had signed agreements with the network of news 
kiosks (Belsoyuzpechat) and the mail distribution network 
(Belpochta).  Both businesses are state-owned and have denied 
opposition press any distribution ever since 2005.  Narodnaya Volya 
also secured an agreement with the state-owned printing press. 
Another opposition newspaper, "Nasha Niva", has so far signed an 
agreement only with Belpochta. 
 
¶7.  Key Suspect in Disappearance of Opposition Politicians 
Hospitalized 
 
According to some unofficial sources, Interior Ministry Colonel 
Dmitriy Pavlichenko, a key suspect in the 1999-2000 disappearances 
of opposition politicians, had a stroke on November 25 and has been 
hospitalized.  Earlier this month he received a new assignment in 
the Interior Ministry. Pavlichenko still remains on the EU and the 
U.S. travel ban lists over suspicions of his involvement in the 
disappearances. 
 
---------------- 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
¶8.  National Bank Takes Steps to Limit Imports 
 
According to the media, Belarus' National Bank issued resolution 
165, which tightens regulations governing import payments. 
Effective November 11, advance import payments will not be allowed 
without a prior approval of the corresponding government agency, 
which, in turn, has to secure a clearance of a Deputy Prime 
Minister.  The new regulations are applicable to all businesses 
regardless of their ownership status. 
 
¶9.  Lukashenka Maintains His Economic Policies Still Efficient, 
Suggests Controversial Methods to Address Challenges 
 
According to press reports, Lukashenka spoke highly about the 
advantages of Belarus' economic development model, which, he 
believes, efficiently mitigates the effects of the global financial 
crisis.  Speaking to local government officials in Vitebsk November 
25, he nonetheless acknowledged that Belarusian businesses have 
significant difficulties trying to export their products and 
services.  He instructed the GOB to keep ruble strong, reduce 
imports, and preserve social benefits and jobs.  He also required to 
liberalize the economy and give more rights to business people but 
did not elaborate on that much. 
 
------------- 
Foreign Trade 
------------- 
 
¶10.  Russian Ambassador Debriefs on the Status of Russia-Belarus 
Relations 
 
In an interview with Interfax news agency Russian Ambassador to 
Belarus Aleksandr Surikov said that due to decreasing world natural 
gas prices Belarus will most likely have to pay the equivalent of 
USD 170-175 per one thousand cubic meters.  He also said Belarus 
will receive the second part of Russia's USD 2 billion loan in late 
February 2009 provided it completes the transition to Russian ruble 
for Russian energy payments.  He added that both countries will have 
to synchronize the devaluation of their national currencies. 
Finally, Belarus and Russia may sign a framework agreement on the 
single anti-aircraft/anti-missile system, which allegedly does not 
provide for the deployment of additional weapons including missiles, 
on Belarusian territory. 
 
----------------- 
Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
¶11.  Concluding his meeting with government officials in Vitebsk 
region November 25, Lukashenka said: "Securing people's rights to 
receive adequate salaries, live freely and tell what they think: 
that is the main task of the president.  All of us should always 
 
VILNIUS 00000997  003 OF 003 
 
 
remember that". 
 
MOORE 
CLOUD