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Viewing cable 08VILNIUS960, BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 7, 2008

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08VILNIUS960 2008-11-07 10:51 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Vilnius
VZCZCXRO5492
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVL #0960/01 3121051
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 071051Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3057
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000960 
 
AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 7, 2008 
 
1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy 
Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
- Opposition Protests Travel Ban (para. 2) 
- Opposition Activist Fined (para. 3) 
- Opposition Commemorates Ancestors, Stalin Terror Victims (para. 
4) 
- Kurapaty Vandals Detained (para. 5) 
- "Extremist" Independent Newspaper Acquitted (para. 6) 
 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
- GOB Secures Bank Deposits (para. 7) 
- Foreign Debt Down, Internal Debt Up (para. 8) 
 
International Trade 
------------------- 
 
- Commodity Trade Deficit on the Rise (para. 9) 
- Belarusian Potash Company to Cut Exports (para. 10) 
 
Quote of the Week (para. 11) 
----------------- 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
2.  Opposition Protests Travel Ban 
 
On November 6, approximately ten opposition and youth leaders and 
activists marched in central Minsk to protest the 
politically-motivated travel ban and delivered an appeal to the 
Interior Ministry and Prosecutor General.  Police violently forced 
the activists away from the ministries and reportedly beat Malady 
Front leader Zmitser Dashkevich.  United Civic Party Chair Anatoliy 
Lebedko noted that he expects law enforcers to announce the official 
grounds for their travel ban and infringement on their freedom of 
movement. 
 
3.  Opposition Activist Fined 
 
Drogichin authorities fined November 3 local Belarusian Popular 
Front office head Vladimir Kazeko USD 330.  Police searched Kazeko's 
residence and confiscated 2,000 copies of the unregistered 
independent newspaper, Tut I Tsyaper, on October 31.  The activist 
was charged with illegal distribution of printed media. 
 
4.  Opposition Commemorates Ancestors, Stalin Terror Victims 
 
On November 2, over 1,500 activists of the Belarusian Popular Front 
and the Conservative Christian Party marched in northern Minsk to 
mark Dzyady, Ancestors' Remembrance Day.  Two separate rallies, 
authorized by Minsk city authorities, concluded with flower-laying 
at the Stalin-era mass murder Kurapaty site.  Police closely 
observed the demonstrations but did not interfere.  However, as they 
attempted to join the rally, sixty-five Maladaya Belarus youth group 
activists were taken off a Minsk-bound bus in Mogilyov on November 
2.  Two Malady Front activists, Yuri Bogdanovich and Semyon 
Bylinskiy, were reportedly beaten upon their return to Baranovichy 
after the rallies in Minsk.  The activists were detained and charged 
with using obscenities and resisting the police.  Both were released 
November 3 and will stand trial. 
 
5.  Kurapaty Vandals Detained 
 
Conservative Christian Party activists guarding Kurapaty detained 
two vandals at the site on November 1.  Police were called and 
transported the two drunken youngsters to the local precinct.  They 
were later released, and after a preliminary investigation, police 
will announce whether a criminal case will be opened.  Civil society 
representatives expressed hope that the vandals will be held 
criminally liable, particularly in the wake of a numerous 
uninvestigated attacks on the site. 
 
6.  "Extremist" Independent Newspaper Acquitted 
 
On November 5, a Grodno district court dismissed a lawsuit that had 
outlawed the unregistered independent newspaper, Svaboda, as 
"extremist."  The judge returned the case to a lower court due to 
"technical errors."  The Belarusian Association of Journalists 
welcomed the decision and advocated against the arbitrary 
enforcement of criminal penalties on independent journalists and 
civil society. 
 
 
VILNIUS 00000960  002 OF 002 
 
 
---------------- 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
7.  GOB Secures Bank Deposits 
 
On November 4, President Lukashenka signed a decree that the state 
will guarantee an unlimited 100 percent return of retail bank 
accounts and deposits of citizens and legal permanent residents of 
Belarus.  By law, the vast majority of banks in the country will be 
covered, and all deposits shall be returned should the National Bank 
revoke a bank's license.  The decree also excludes the need to 
declare deposits, withdrawals of deposits, and transfers of funds 
from foreign bank accounts and deposited in Belarusian banks.  It 
also establishes an agency to oversee the guarantee of compensation 
of bank deposits of individuals in case of failure.  Banks will no 
longer report transactions over USD 32,900 for individuals or over 
USD 330,000 for entrepreneurs and enterprises. 
 
8.  Foreign Debt Down, Internal Debt Up 
 
The Finance Ministry reported on November 3 that Belarus' state 
foreign debt went down 0.1 percent on the month in September and 
reached USD 2.278 billion as of October 1.  In January-September, a 
3.9-percent decrease in the foreign debt was recorded.  Belarus has 
borrowed the most from Russia, Germany, the U.S., and the World 
Bank.  Meanwhile, its internal debt grew by 4.2 percent on the month 
in September to USD 2.994 billion as of October 1. 
 
------------------- 
International Trade 
------------------- 
 
9.  Commodity Trade Deficit on the Rise 
 
On October 31, the National Statistics Committee reported that 
Belarus' foreign commodity trade deficit amounted to USD 4.081 
billion in January-September 2008 vs. USD 2.741 billion in the same 
period in 2007.  Exports increased by 56.1 percent and imports 
increased by 55.1 percent year-on-year in January-September 2008. 
Russia has remained Belarus' key trade partner, with which Belarus 
recorded a trade deficit of USD 10.622 billion for the same period. 
 
 
10.  Belarusian Potash Company to Cut Exports 
 
The Belarusian Potash Company (BPC), the exclusive exporter of 
Belaruskaliy and Russia's Uralkaliy-manufactured potash fertilizers, 
announced on November 3 that it will reduce its exports by 700,000 
tons in the fourth quarter of 2008.  The cuts are attributed to the 
global financial crisis, reduced loans, and solvent demands from 
farmers around the world.  Meanwhile, the BPC asserted that no 
contracts had been terminated, and an additional 400,000 tons of 
fertilizer will be supplied to the domestic market. 
 
----------------- 
Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
11.  Appointing GOB officials and CEOs of state-owned enterprises on 
October 31, President Lukashenka admitted that the global financial 
crisis will affect Belarusian economy, saying, "only strong 
[countries] will benefit from [the global financial crisis].  It is 
a test, an exam for the economy, government, and management of 
enterprises."  Lukashenka reiterated that "we must achieve projected 
goals.  Look for [new] markets and promote your products, but do not 
wait for the Russians to come and buy everything up.  You need to 
act promptly." 
 
MILLER 
CLOUD