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RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
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DE RUEHVL #0931/01 3090641
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 040641Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3020
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000931 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - October 31, 2008 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy 
Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
- Opposition Youth Arrested (para. 2) 
- Election Authorities Deny Final Appeals (para. 3) 
- Opposition Hopeful's Supporters Heavily Fined (para. 4) 
- Pro-Regime NGO Holds First Convention (para. 5) 
- Court Fines Wheelchair-Bound Amputee (para. 6) 
- Opposition Youth Briefly Detained (para. 7) 
 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
- Russian Ambassador Expects Belarus to Pay USD 200 per 1,000 Cubic 
Meters of Natural Gas in 2009 
 (para. 8) 
- Government Expects 14 Percent Inflation in 2008 
 (para. 9) 
- Lukashenka Discusses Nuclear Power Plant Project with Potential 
Bidder from China (para. 10) 
- China's Eximbank and Belarusian Government Sign Loan Agreements to 
Upgrade Belarus' Cement Industry (para. 11) 
 
Quote of the Week (para. 12) 
----------------- 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
¶2.  Opposition Youth Arrested 
 
On October 27, police summoned and arrested opposition youth 
Aleksandr Borozenko for allegedly ignoring interrogations and court 
hearings in a criminal case.  Borozenko was one of the 14 activists 
who were criminally charged with organizing and participating in an 
unsanctioned January 10 entrepreneur protest in Minsk.  He did not 
appear in court in April 2008 as he was studying in Poland. 
According to his lawyer, Borozenko could be held in jail until a 
trial.  There is some interest in seeing his designated as a 
political prisoner. 
 
¶3.  Election Authorities Deny Final Appeals 
 
The Central Election Commission denied October 24 five final appeals 
submitted by opposition hopefuls contesting official September 
parliamentary election results.  The CEC maintained that the appeals 
were "subjective", gave "no evidence" of electoral law violations, 
and recommended the opposition representatives "to thoroughly study 
electoral regulations". 
 
¶4.  Opposition Hopeful's Supporters Heavily Fined 
 
A Svetlogorsk district court fined local opposition Communist party 
member Svetlana Mikhalchenko, Belarusian Popular Front activists 
Viktor Okhramchuk and Sergey Shevelenko USD 660 each for 
distributing illegal printed materials on October 24.  The three 
activists had been campaigning for an opposition candidate, and the 
police detained them and confiscated campaign leaflets and copies of 
independent newspapers.  They also searched Mikhalchenko's 
residence.  The activists intend to appeal to a higher court. 
 
¶5.  Pro-Regime NGO Holds First Convention 
 
Pro-regime, nationwide NGO "Belaya Rus" held a first, "founding" 
convention and adopted its charter and program October 25.  Belaya 
Rus Chair and Education Minister Aleksandr Radkov stated that over 
60,000 persons have already joined it, and every other newly elected 
MP is a member.  Belaya Rus endorses and promotes Lukashenka's 
policies and has united "constructive forces" and presents "big 
intellectual and resources potential".  Officials dismissed rumors 
that the NGO would soon be turned into a political party. 
 
¶6.  Court Fines Wheelchair-Bound Amputee 
 
A Mogilyov district court fined local wheelchair-bound disabled 
leg-amputee pensioner Vladimir Usikov USD 35 on October 28.  Usikov 
was charged with holding an unsanctioned rally protesting social 
benefits cuts in central Mogilyov.  He opined that there were no 
means to "defend the rights" of individuals in Belarus. 
 
¶7.  Opposition Youth Briefly Detained 
 
Belarusian Popular Front youth group leader Franak Vyachorka and 
Young Democrats member Mikhail Pashkevich were briefly detained at 
the pro-regime Belarusian National Youth Union convention October 
 
VILNIUS 00000931  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶29.  The two came unsolicited and voiced their request to make a 
speech.  The guards forced them out, and police detained them for 
four hours on alleged charges of using obscenities in public.  The 
activists were released and given apologies. 
 
---------------- 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
¶8.  Russian Ambassador Expects Belarus to Pay USD 200 per 1,000 
Cubic Meters of Natural Gas in 2009 
 
Russian Ambassador to Belarus Alexander Surikov told Prime-TASS news 
agency October 27 that he believes Belarus will have to pay 
approximately USD 200 per 1,000 cubic meters (TCM) of Russian 
natural gas.  He admitted the price may be slightly less due to 
lowering world oil prices.  Belarusian authorities still hope to 
secure the price as low as USD 140/TCM in 2008 and drafted the 
country's central budget accordingly.  Independent observers that 
post contacted believe the parties will finally agree on USD 
175-185/TCM, although in the past Surikov's word has been 
conclusive.  (Note: An increase to USD 200/TCM from the current 
price would cost the GOB an additional USD 2 billion based on annual 
consumption rates.  End note.) 
 
¶9.  Government Expects 14 Percent Inflation in 2008 
 
According to press reports, Belarus' Economy Minister Nikolay 
Zaychenko opined that inflation in Belarus this year would reach 14 
percent, while the plan for 2008 was 6-9 percent.  Speaking at a 
regular meeting of the Council of Ministers October 28, Zaychenko 
primarily blamed soaring world prices on energy, raw materials and 
food.  The Deputy Minister stressed that the GOB does not limit 
prices by administrative means trying to avoid deficiencies and 
short supplies but routinely inspects thousands of businesses in the 
country to prevent violations of price formation regulations. 
 
¶10.  Lukashenka Discusses Nuclear Power Plant Project with Potential 
Bidder from China 
 
Presidential press service announced on October 28 that Lukashenka 
met with top managers of China's Guandun Nuclear Energy Corporation. 
 He praised the corporation for the commendable record of their 
operations in China and invited to bid for the Nuclear Power Plant 
(NPP) project in Belarus.  Nevertheless, Russia's Atomstroyexport is 
viewed as the most likely contractor to build 2,000 MW NPP, which 
the GOB plans to commission in two stages: 2016 for the first power 
unit, and 2018 for the second one. 
 
¶11.  China's Eximbank and Belarusian Government Sign Loan Agreements 
to Upgrade Belarus' Cement Industry 
 
According to the media, China's Eximbank and the GOB signed October 
29 a total of USD 390 million worth of loan agreements to upgrade 
Belarus' cement industry.  Eximbank will issue one beneficial 
government loan (15-year payment and 2.5 percent interest) and two 
ten-year and 6.6 percent interest consumer loans.  Belarus' Deputy 
Prime Minister Vladimir Semashko said that the loans would enable 
the country to double its production of cement in two years and thus 
fully meet the demand of the domestic market. 
 
----------------- 
Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
¶12.  Talking to Russian President Medvedev in Moscow October 25, 
Lukashenko said: 
 
"We will discuss a number of current problems, which emerge in 
economic and financial sectors of Russia and Belarus.  Your vision 
is very important to us because we are very close to Russia economy 
and finance wise.  You know almost half of Belarus' gold and hard 
currency reserves are in Russian rubles...I believe your expertise 
and advice are very important to us: which way we should go". 
 
MOORE 
LEADER