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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 TOKYO 003175 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 11/18/08 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) LDP fears policy of delaying submission of second extra budget 
bill going off track [Asahi] 
 
(2) Dip in GDP for two straight quarters: Recovery unlikely before 
2010 or later [Mainichi] 
 
(3) Tamogami essay shows SDF's longtime frustration [Asahi] 
 
(4) New phase for Japan and the United States; Differences in 
administrative bases evident [Asahi] 
 
(5) Whaling: Research without killing, Australia checks Japan 
[Asahi] 
 
(6) Sailing ceremony for research whaling cancelled this year 
[Asahi] 
 
(7) TOP HEADLINES 
 
(8) EDITORIALS 
 
(9) Prime Minister's schedule, November 17 [Nikkei] 
 
(10) Political Cartoon [Asahi] 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) LDP fears policy of delaying submission of second extra budget 
bill going off track 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Full) 
November 18, 2008 
 
If the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) rejects taking a vote on a 
bill amending the New Antiterrorism Special Measures Law, the ruling 
camp will inevitably be pressed to review its Diet strategy. The 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership fears, keeping in mind his 
stance of giving top priority to economic growth, that Prime 
Minister Aso would respond to the DPJ's call on the government to 
submit a second extra budget bill to the current Diet session. In an 
effort to avoid being pressed to dissolve the Lower House later this 
year, the leadership is eagerly charting a strategy. 
 
LDP Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Tadamori Oshima met with former 
Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura, former Secretary General 
Bunmei Ibuki, and Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Nikai in 
Tokyo last night. They agreed to continue to make efforts to push a 
budget bill for next fiscal year and a second extra budget bill 
through the Diet. 
 
Many LDP members expect the government to decide to give up on 
submitting a second extra budget bill to the ongoing Diet session 
and to dissolve the House of Representatives in the spring or later 
after the next fiscal year budget bill clear the Diet. They fear 
that if this policy line also goes off track, the Aso administration 
may be unable to survive. 
 
In the ongoing extraordinary Diet session, which is due to end on 
Nov. 30, the ruling camp has given top priority to enacting the 
refueling bill and a bill to strengthen financial functions. Based 
 
TOKYO 00003175  002 OF 008 
 
 
on the judgment that it is unnecessary to extend the session because 
the House of Councillors DPJ once promised to agree to take a vote 
on the bill by the end of November, the ruling side envisioned it 
would adjourn the current session on Nov. 30 and open the next 
ordinary Diet session in early January, when a second budget bill 
would be submitted.. 
 
If the extra budget bill is submitted to the ongoing session, the 
situation will inevitably turn into a quagmire. If so, the 
government might be driven to dissolve the Lower House later this 
year. In the snap election following the dissolution of the Diet, 
there will be little chance of winning for the ruling camp. The 
ruling side hopes to nip such a risky possibility in the bud. 
 
If the DPJ toughens its posture and rejects voting on the two bills, 
it will become necessary for the ruling camp to consider the option 
of obtaining final Diet approval through a revote in the Lower 
House. The refueling bill cleared the Lower House on Oct. 21. Under 
the so-called 60-day rule, it becomes possible to bring the bill 
back into the Lower House for a revote on Dec. 20. If so, the Diet 
session will have to be extended up until late December. 
 
In addition, if the DPJ resorts to a tactics to delay a vote on the 
bill to strengthen financial functions, which passed the Lower House 
on Nov. 6, it is impossible to take a revote before Jan. 5. To 
ensure the bill will be enacted, it will become necessary to extend 
the Diet session until early January. Since it is possible to extend 
an extraordinary Diet session twice, if the session is extended 
until late December first and then until early January once again. 
 
The focus of attention is on whether the government would respond to 
the DPJ's call for submitting a second supplementary budget during 
the current Diet session. 
 
LDP Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Oshima told his DPJ counterpart 
Kenji Yamaoka yesterday: "It is impossible to submit the bill during 
the current Diet session." If the session is extended to early next 
year, the DPJ will undoubtedly intensify its call on the submission 
of a supplementary bill. If the ruling side responds to the DPJ 
call, the DPJ will be given a chance to grill the government over a 
fixed-amount cash handout program, on which coordination in the 
government ran into trouble. In this case, the Diet would be thrown 
into confusion, and it would become more likely for the government 
to be pressed to dissolve the Lower House. The government and the 
ruling camp have decided to forgo the planned dissolution of the 
Lower House within this year. The decision reflects their policy of 
protecting themselves by giving a boost to the Aso administration 
through the enactment of next fiscal year's budget bill and 
accumulated achievements in its summit diplomacy. 
 
A senior government official also was negative about submitting the 
extra budget bill to the current Diet session, saying: "Even if the 
session is extended to late December, the government should not 
deliberate (on the refueling bill) and should take an override vote 
in the Lower House 60 days after the bill is sent to the Upper 
House." But how will the government be able to push the bill through 
the Diet while taking a protective stance? The government will 
likely find itself difficult to steer Diet business. 
 
(2) Dip in GDP for two straight quarters: Recovery unlikely before 
2010 or later 
 
 
TOKYO 00003175  003 OF 008 
 
 
MAINICHI (Page 9) (Full) 
November 18, 2008 
 
The gross domestic product (GDP in annualized terms) in real terms 
for the July-September fell for two straight quarters for the first 
time in about seven years. Many economists now subscribe to the 
severe view that the Japanese economy will not recover before 2010 
or later. Exports and capital investment, the locomotives that drive 
the Japanese economy, are down and unlikely to recover soon. The 
economies of the U.S. and Europe also are likely enter a 
recessionary phase. The economies of emerging countries -- the last 
resort for growth in the global economy -- are also visibly slowing 
because of poor prospects for export growth. 
 
The nation's GDP already substantially dipped as of the April-June 
quarter, marking a 3.7% drop from the preceding quarter in 
annualized terms. However, some market players took an optimistic 
view as of August this year, when the GDP figures for the April-June 
quarter were released, with one noting, "The economy will be on a 
mild recovery track by the spring of 2009." 
 
However, the financial crisis has reached the real economy across 
the board. As a result, the economies of emerging countries, such as 
China and Russia, are also slowing at a pace much faster than 
expected due to the bursting of the crude oil, real estate and 
stock-price bubbles, as Shinya Ueno at Mizuho Securities put it. 
Almost no market players expect the government's economic 
pump-priming measures to produce results. Many take the view that 
the economy will continue its downward trend in the October-December 
quarter, when the impact of the global stock plunges and the sharp 
rise in the value of the yen will be spreading. The Japanese economy 
is in a situation where there is no exit from the recession. 
 
(3) Tamogami essay shows SDF's longtime frustration 
 
ASAHI (Page 15) (Full) 
November 13, 2008 
 
Toshiyuki Shikata, professor at Teikyo University and former Ground 
Self-Defense Force lieutenant general 
 
That essay was inappropriate. 
 
First of all, its timing was bad. "As there is a time to speak, so 
there is a time to keep silent." This is from the Bible.  Even 
though the essay may be a manifestation of what was in his heart, 
there is a time to speak. It is inappropriate that Toshio Tamogami 
made public the essay he wrote as the incumbent in the top brass 
post of Air Self-Defense Force chief of staff. 
 
In the Mongolian Invasions of the 13th century, a large number of 
Japanese people were killed by the allied forces of Mongolia and 
Goryeo. Today, however, there is no one that criticizes it. That is 
because a long time has passed and it has already become history. 
However, Japan's relations with China and South Korea in the 20th 
century are still vivid. There are also people still living who 
experienced those days. One who is in a position as ASDF chief of 
staff should not have stated a view of history as he did in the 
essay. It was not in the national interest of Japan. 
 
Second, there is a problem about procedures. Tamogami, based on the 
Defense Ministry's internal regulations, should have written to the 
 
TOKYO 00003175  004 OF 008 
 
 
chief of the Defense Minister's Secretariat for permission about his 
essay before contributing it. However, Tamogami assumed that since 
the essay was about his view of history, it had nothing to do with 
his duties as ASDF chief. He only told the chief of the Defense 
Minister's Secretariat about it. This is strange. 
 
A view of history has something to do with his duty. The 
Self-Defense Forces' top echelon has had a hard time maintaining 
morale and keeping it high. So did I. SDF members are hard trained 
and told by their commanders to be prepared to die for their country 
in an emergency. A view of history is extremely important. Japan was 
a wicked country that did terrible things in the past... With such 
in mind, I wonder if young SDF members can proudly die for their 
country. We need fighter planes and missiles, but even before that, 
we need to elevate the morale of SDF members. We love our country 
and we are proud of our country. This kind of feeling cannot be 
nurtured by a masochistic view of history. The essay probably wanted 
to say that. 
 
If Tamogami had asked the chief of the Defense Minister's 
Secretariat in written form for permission about his essay, his 
entry into the essay contest would have been halted by someone who 
would have noticed its inappropriateness. He might have been aware 
of that. There would have been no problem if he had contributed the 
essay after resigning as ASDF chief of staff. But then, no one would 
have paid attention. He was the top brass officer, so the essay drew 
public attention. In this sense, he might have been prepared to 
resign. 
 
This incident was probably a great nuisance for the SDF. However, 
some personnel may have thought to themselves that he was right. 
 
Then, the question is what to do. From the start, the SDF has been 
pent up for years. I think such pent-up feelings need to be wiped 
away. 
 
To begin with, politicians should talk about a view of history with 
their own words. Whenever the prime minister changes, his successor 
only says he will follow the Murayama Statement, which recognized 
colonial rule and aggression. Even in the case of going along with 
it, why do they not speak of it as their own view of history? 
 
What underlies the problem is the Constitution. The present 
Constitution does not define the SDF. Such a situation has lasted 
too long and created pent-up feelings. One idea is to amend the 
Constitution to expressly stipulate the SDF and its existence. 
 
It is easy to denounce him for publishing such an essay as a problem 
about an individual who was ASDF chief of staff. This, however, will 
not dispel whatever it pent up in the SDF. I want the government to 
take a good look at what lies behind the problem and what underlies 
it. 
 
Civilian control is a categorical imperative. Japan is a country 
under the rule of law, so we need the prime minister's leadership 
and a revision of the Constitutional. However, I wonder if there is 
an atmosphere within the SDF to freely allow them to make 
suggestions. The SDF, once ordered, will move in perfect order. 
However, the SDF must create a better climate for its members to be 
able to say things to their officers like "it might be better not to 
do so." They need the courage to admonish their officers. 
 
 
TOKYO 00003175  005 OF 008 
 
 
Shikata was born in 1936, and he filled the posts of GSDF Ground 
Staff Office Personnel Department director general, GSDF 2nd 
Division commanding general, and GSDF Northern District Army 
commanding general. 
 
(4) New phase for Japan and the United States; Differences in 
administrative bases evident 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Abridged slightly) 
November 18, 2008 
 
By Hiroshi Hoshi, editorial writer 
 
American people like playing on words. In footage on a rally 
celebrating the victory of President-elect Barack Obama, I saw a 
person wearing a T-shirt saying "Yes We Did" -- a play on Obama's 
slogan, "Yes We Can." 
 
An American friend of mine once said to me, "Our strength comes from 
SMILE." It meant that screens (movies), military and money, 
Internet, law, and English have conquered the world. 
 
* * * * * 
 
The U.S. economy has deteriorated markedly due to the financial 
crisis triggered by the subprime loan problem. Confidence in the 
U.S. dollar - the M in SMILE -- has dropped. The automotive industry 
is also having a hard time. An agreement was reached in think the 
crisis will come to an end so easily. 
 
The views of America watchers on the future of that country are 
split. There is a theory that regards this as the beginning of the 
end of a unipolar world. The theory predicts that the power of the 
United States, which has neglected producing goods as a result of 
opting for the so-called Casino Capitalism [entailing such risk 
taking as pouring all one's funds, including pensions, into the 
stock market], will decline, and the influence of emerging nations, 
like China, and European countries will increase. Keio University 
Prof. Masaru Kaneko, s strong believer in this theory, noted: "The 
decline of the automotive industry that represents the oil 
civilization is a symbolic of the end of the hegemony of the United 
States." 
 
At the same time, many observers think the United States will come 
back to life sooner or later. Sojitz Research Institute Executive 
Vice-President Tatsuhiko Yoshizaki said: "When an economic crisis 
occurs, a country that has democracy and a market economy is 
extremely resilient. Once the adjustment period is over, I believe 
the United States will bounce back quickly." 
 
There is no doubt that Obama's United States is at a crossroads. 
Seeing his calm and reassuring manner during the presidential race, 
I felt that Obama would smoothly and steadily deal with outstanding 
issues. His smile was appealing, as well. 
 
Japan's relationship between the United States is also expected to 
change significantly, for Japan will soon enter a new phase. From a 
short-term perspective, Japan has been pressed to cooperate to 
revive the slumping U.S. economy and to draw the United States 
toward a policy course of international cooperation with European 
nations and emerging countries in order to deal with such global 
issues as the environment and poverty from a mid to long-term 
 
TOKYO 00003175  006 OF 008 
 
 
perspective. The question is whether the Aso administration is 
capable of performing such a difficult task. 
 
The clear difference between Obama's United States and Aso's Japan 
is the footing of their respective administrations. Obama garnered 
66 million votes. Democrats have gained control of both the Senate 
and the House of Representatives. Aso's ruling bloc lost its 
majority in the latest Upper House election. The Lower House has not 
been dissolved for a general election under the two previous 
administrations and the Aso administration. 
 
Flip-flops over a fixed-sum cash-handout program, which was supposed 
to be a showcase of the economic stimulus package, have exposed the 
administration's weak foundation. The idea of a second supplementary 
budget to shore up the economy was something that never once 
occurred to most lawmakers and bureaucrats, who had expected Lower 
House dissolution and a general election either in October or 
November. Even so, the cash-handout program has followed an 
extremely rough path. 
 
The Aso administration's weakness stems from its disregard for the 
public will. To rectify that, there is no other option but to 
swiftly dissolve the Lower House and let an election establish an 
administration that reflects the popular will. An early dissolution 
of the Lower House is key to stimulating the domestic economy, as 
well as building a new Japan-U.S. relations. 
 
(5) Whaling: Research without killing, Australia checks Japan 
 
ASAHI (Page 34) (Full) 
November 18, 2008 
 
Akihito Sugii, Singapore 
 
Australian Environment Minister Garrett on November 17 announced 
that Australia will conduct on its own a scientific ecological whale 
survey without killing them. The country will invest approximately 6 
million Australian dollars (approximately 370 million yen), which 
also covers the cost of developing research technology. Garrett 
explained, "The project is part of the government policy of stopping 
Japan's research whaling." 
 
The environment minister insisted that it is possible to conduct 
ecological research on whales, by such means as sonic research and 
aerial inspection. He then added, "The Australian government 
believes that it is not necessary to kill whales in understanding 
whales' ecological system." He noted that Australia will call on 
members of the International Whaling Commission (IWC), including 
Japan, to take part in its research. 
 
According to Australian AAP, regarding whether Australia will send a 
patrol ship to track Japan's research whaling, as it did last year, 
the environment minister told reporters, "We have yet to make up our 
minds." 
 
(6) Sailing ceremony for research whaling cancelled this year 
 
ASAHI (Page 34) (Full) 
November 18, 2008/11/18 
 
Japanese ships that carry out research whaling in the Southern 
Ocean, hold a sailing ceremony every year in Shimonoseki City, 
 
TOKYO 00003175  007 OF 008 
 
 
Yamaguchi Prefecture. However, Asahi Shimbun learned on November 17 
that there would be no sailing ceremony this year. The reason for 
the cancellation of the ceremony is to prevent sabotage by 
anti-whaling organizations, which became an issue last year. Now is 
the time for whaling vessels to leave the port. An official of the 
Fisheries Agency Far Seas Fisheries Division said, "We cannot even 
reveal whether vessels have left port or not." 
 
Mayor Kiyoshi Ejima revealed at a press conference that the sailing 
ceremony was cancelled. He said, "In my view, it is regrettable. 
However, research whaling suffered major damage from acts of 
obstruction. We must pour our energy to ensure safety and a piece of 
mind in implementing research whaling." 
 
(7) TOP HEADLINES 
 
Asahi & Sankei: 
Extension of Diet session unavoidable 
 
Mainichi: 
Calls growing for extending Diet session 
 
Yomiuri & Tokyo Shimbun: 
Democratic Party of Japan to reject taking vote on refueling bill 
 
Nikkei: 
Eight countries in Asia plus Australia to join hands in trade 
reinsurance 
 
Akahata: 
Only 28% of applicants remitted all tuition fees at national 
universities 
 
(8) EDITORIALS 
 
Asahi: 
(1) Negative GDP growth: Government urged to chart strategy to 
survive recession 
(2) Policies, political situation under Aso administration remain 
confused 
 
Mainichi: 
(1) Japan, U.S., and Europe in recession: Boost public works 
spending to buoy economy 
(2) Set up system to prevent drunk driving 
 
Yomiuri: 
(1) Negative GDP growth urges for policy switch 
(2) Hit-and-run accident a vicious crime that leads to murder 
 
Nikkei: 
(1) Make full preparations for prolonged global recession 
(2) We expected both ruling, opposition camps to prioritize policies 
over Diet dissolution 
 
Sankei: 
(1) Diet dissolution should not be opted for now 
(2) Hit-and-run accident a heinous crime equivalent to murder 
 
Tokyo Shimbun: 
(1) Its' not time for Aso, Ozawa to engage in tactful game 
(2) Aso government urged to come up with economic stimulus measures 
 
TOKYO 00003175  008 OF 008 
 
 
 
Akahata: 
(1) Negative GDP growth: Take measures to support family budgets 
 
(9) Prime Minister's schedule, November 17 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
November 18, 2008 
 
10:04 
Had a walk around his private residence in Kamiyamacho. 
 
12:28 
Signed in at the Imperial Palace to report his return. 
 
14:30 
Met Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Uruma at the Kantei. 
 
15:00 
Met Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura, followed by Japan Junior 
Chamber President Yoshihiko Oda and others. 
 
16:13 
Met Gifu Gov. Yoshida, followed by LDP Secretary General Hosoda and 
Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Oshima. Afterward handed a letter of 
appointment to Cabinet Councilor Toyoda in the presence of Hosoda 
and others. 
 
17:44 
Met Kawamura at the Kantei joined in by Hosoda. 
 
17:59 
Held talks with DPJ President Ozawa in the presence of Hosoda, DPJ 
Secretary General Hatoyama, Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Yamaoka, 
and Lower House member Tenzo Okumura. 
 
18:29 
Met Kawamura and Hosoda. 
 
19:07 
Met at his official residence LDP General Council Chairman Sasagawa, 
hid deputy Funada and others, in the presence of Kawamura and 
Hosoda. 
 
20:36 
Returned to his private residence. 
 
SCHIEFFER