VZCZCXRO0969
RR RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJS #0131/01 3191028
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 141028Z NOV 08
FM AMCONSUL SURABAYA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0329
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 0314
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0150
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0158
RUEHJS/AMCONSUL SURABAYA 0334

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000131 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, DRL, DRL/AHW, EAP/PD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI KISL ID
SUBJECT: EAST JAVA: RAZOR THIN VICTORY IN RUN-OFF ELECTION SIGNALS 
VOTER APATHY AND PARTY DISUNITY 
 
REF: A. SURABAYA 94 (EAST JAVA'S FIRST FEMALE GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE) 
     ¶B. SURABAYA 88 (WEAK PARTY LOYALTY LEADS TO RUN-OFF ELECTION) 
     ¶C. SURABAYA 51 (POLITICS IN EAST JAVA'S NU) 
 
SURABAYA 00000131  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
This message is sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: In the November 4 run-off election to select 
East Java's governor, low turnout and a lack of party discipline 
saw former Provincial Secretary Soekarwo squeak out a narrow 
(less than 1%) victory over East Java's first female 
gubernatorial candidate Khofifah.  Although early exit polling 
unanimously called the election immediately for Khofifah, 
legally binding manual counts by the provincial election 
commission (KPUD) officially called the election for Soekarwo a 
week later.  East Java has avoided the sort of post election 
violence that has marred other recent hard-fought governors' 
races.  Most striking in this race was the clear failure of 
Indonesia's major national political parties to select viable 
candidates and get out the vote.  Local observers unanimously 
called this election in Indonesia's second largest province a 
message to presidential candidates that outreach to voters and 
focus on issues, rather than traditional party politics, is 
critical in direct elections. 
 
Too Close to Call 
---------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) After none of the five original candidates garnered 
sufficient votes during the July 23 East Java Governor's 
election, a run-off between the top two tickets 
--Soekarwo/Syaifullah Yusuf (supported by the National Mandate 
Party (PAN), Party Democrat (PD), and the Prosperous Justice 
Party (PKS)) and Khofifah Indar Parawansa/Mudjiono (supported by 
the United Development Party (PPP), the Patriot Party, and a 
coalition of smaller parties) -- was held on November 4.  Early 
election-day exit polls suggested victory for Khofifah by less 
than 1% of the vote, well within the "quick counts" margin of 
error.  However, after a manual count of the votes, the KPU 
called the election for Soekarwo, by a margin of 0.4% or just 
60,233 votes (50.20% to 49.80%).  Observers credit unanimity 
among conservative NU voters on the island of Madura for 
Soekarwo's victory. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Neither candidate generated much enthusiasm amongst 
the electorate before the run-off and the KPU's disorganization 
helped depress turnout.  Many voters in Surabaya and Sidoarjo, 
for example, received their voter registration cards just the 
night before the run-off.  According to the KPU, voter 
participation was only 54.32%, down from 61% during July's 
regular election.  Major party endorsements did not seem to help 
either candidate in the run-off. Most supporters of first-round 
losing candidates stayed home on November 4, according to data 
compiled by Indonesia's Survey Research Institution.  Alleging 
voter fraud in Madura, Khofifah has pledged to challenge the 
official results by filing a law suit with the Constitutional 
Court and the United Nations. 
 
Influence of Gender and Kiai 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) Gender appears to have helped as well as hurt the first 
female gubernatorial candidate in East Java.  The Indonesian 
Survey Institute (LSI) noted that women chose Khofifah in large 
numbers. However, Soekarwo benefited from the reluctance of 
influential NU clerics, "Kiai", in the "Horse Shoe" regions 
ringing the Madura Sea to support a female candidate.  It also 
didn't hurt that Soekarwo's running mate has the "royal blood" 
of NU, as the grandson of one of the NU's founding fathers and 
nephew of former President Gus Dur.  With this patrimony, 
Soekarwo and Syaifullah Yusuf successfully overcame NU National 
Chairman Hasyim Muzadi's instruction to NU members to support 
Khofifah, head of the NU women's division.  Furthermore, PKS's 
decision to endorse Soekarwo was in part motivated by devout 
Muslim PKS rank and file unwilling to support a female 
candidate, according to a local party leader's press interview. 
 
What Happened to The Party Machines? 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) With their candidates defeated in the first round, the 
major parties were left flat-footed in choosing a candidate to 
endorse in the runoff.  Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle 
(PDI-P) Chairman Megawati's endorsement of Khofifah in the 
run-off pulled some votes away from Soekarwo.  Khofifah garnered 
votes in the "Arek" and the "Mataram" areas of East Java, PDI-P 
 
SURABAYA 00000131  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
strongholds, suggesting PDI-P was successful in getting out the 
vote, at least in some areas.  Local observers told ConGen 
Surabaya that Megawati's instructions were followed by 100% of 
executive board members in East Java's regencies and cities, 
even if PDI-P voters did not necessarily vote as directed. 
Soekarwo received run-off endorsements from both the National 
Awakening Party (PKB) and Golkar, but in a repeat of the July 
election, neither party seemed able to deliver its voters to the 
polling stations in the face of internal party struggles. 
 
The Outlook for 2009 Presidential Election 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Local political observers agreed that the election 
result would bolster President Yudhoyono's confidence about the 
ability of his small Democratic Party to compete with the 
political machines of large parties, such as PDI-P and Golkar. 
However, they argued the real message of this election was that 
voters were influenced more by issues and personal appeal than 
by political parties.  The low turnout indicates that voters 
were uninspired by the candidates on the ballot and unwilling to 
vote simply based on a party leader's instructions.  Neither 
candidate offered firm policy proposals, such as how to resolve 
the Sidoarjo mudflow crisis or address growing malnutrition 
rates, preferring instead to lobby religious leaders and others 
through gifts of cars and donations of food packages to poor 
communities.  In response, almost half of East Java's electorate 
decided there was no reason to vote.  How presidential 
candidates are able to reach these undecided/uninspired voters 
may be the key to success in 2009. 
MCCLELLAND