VZCZCXYZ0009
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHC #0975 3191434
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 141423Z NOV 08
FM SECSTATE WASHDC
TO RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 0000
INFO RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD IMMEDIATE 0000
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE 0000
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS STATE 120975 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL UNSC MARR IZ
SUBJECT: GUIDANCE: REMARKS FOR QUARTERLY MNF-I BRIEF TO 
UNSC 
 
USUN should draw from the following remarks in briefing 
the UNSC on behalf of the MNF-I, November 14, 2008: 
 
¶1. Begin Text:  I am pleased to report to the Security Council 
on behalf of the Multinational Force in Iraq (MNF-I).  I would 
like to begin by thanking Special Representative de Mistura 
for his briefing on the important work undertaken by the 
United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI).  UNAMI's 
work is critical to cementing the gains we have seen in Iraq 
and I wish to extend our appreciation for their hard work and 
sacrifices.  We remain committed to ensuring that the United 
Nations receives the support necessary for it to sustain and 
expand its presence in Iraq. 
 
This has been a year of significant achievement for which 
the Iraqi government, the Iraqi people, and the 
international community can take pride.  Yet work remains 
to be done.  Progress in Iraq is fragile and reversible. 
It is critical that Iraq receive the continued support and 
encouragement of the international community as it faces 
the next set of challenges in rebuilding its country: 
legitimate and peaceful provincial, district, and national 
elections in 2009; restoring essential services for its 
people; humanitarian efforts to support the return of 4 
million refugees and internally displaced persons; 
peaceful resolution on the status of disputed internal 
boundaries, most notably Kirkuk; and constitutional 
review. 
 
Today, I would like to update you on several points of key 
progress that have been achieved. 
 
First, let me address the ongoing improvement in the 
overall security situation in Iraq. 
 
The security situation has significantly improved since 
June 2007.  The number of overall attacks has decreased 
by 86 percent, civilian deaths due to violence have 
decreased by 80 percent,  Iraqi Security Force (ISF) deaths 
have decreased 84 percent, U.S. military deaths in Iraq 
have decreased 87 percent, coalition military deaths in 
Iraq have decreased by 88 percent, and Ethno-sectarian 
deaths have decreased by 95 percent.  Coalition and Iraqi 
Security Forces have degraded al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and 
militia groups' capabilities as evidenced by the 81 percent 
decrease in Improvised Explosive Device explosions and 
the 72 percent decrease in suicide explosions. 
 
A reduction in violence across northern Iraq can be 
attributed in part to the removal and displacement of key 
AQI leaders as a result of Iraqi-led security operations. 
But some political and factional tensions still remain 
that have affected the delivery of services.  The 
Government of Iraq, with Coalition assistance, has begun 
addressing the complex underlying ethnic and religious 
tensions that lead to violence by ensuring adherence to 
the rule of law and by establishing reconstruction 
operation centers to bring much-needed essential services 
and economic investment. 
 
Coalition and Iraqi Security Forces have maintained these 
security gains even with the reduction of Coalition forces 
to pre-surge levels.  Joint operations, in concert with 
the Awakening movement, have improved the security 
situation such that, even as a number of Coalition 
countries depart theater, the United States has announced 
the early withdrawal of the Second Brigade of the 101st 
Airborne Division from Baghdad -- bringing the number of 
Brigade Combat Teams to below pre-surge levels. 
 
On-going security operations have produced encouraging 
results, with arrests of significant AQI targets in Diyala, 
Mosul, and Baghdad, as well as leaders of other armed groups 
in Baghdad, Basrah, Maysan, and Wasit.  The Iraqi people's 
increasing trust of the Iraqi Security Forces has also led to 
a number of record-breaking seizures of weapons caches, 
including 
several hundred IEDs in the Mada'in area and two tons of 
explosives in Ninewa. 
 
Primarily as a result of successful operations against AQI 
facilitation and support networks inside of Iraq, we are also 
beginning to see a decrease in the number of foreign fighters 
crossing into Iraq -roughly a fifty percent decrease compared 
to 2007. 
-- Nevertheless, we remain concerned by the flow of foreign 
fighters and lethal aid into Iraq.  Syria remains the primary 
gateway for foreign terrorists moving into Iraq and has taken 
insufficient action to combat the terrorist facilitation 
networks based in Syria. Additional efforts are needed. 
 
For all this progress, al Qaeda in Iraq remains a 
significant threat, as do Iranian surrogate militants and 
JAM.  All retain the intent and capability of carrying out 
lethal attacks against the Iraqi people, such as the 
multiple bombings that occurred this week.  AQI's use of 
person-borne improvised explosive devices and increasing 
shift toward female suicide bombers remain a particular 
challenge.  More broadly, Iranian efforts to interfere in the 
Iraqi political process continue to frustrate reconciliation 
efforts and political developments inside of Iraq.  We are 
uncertain that Iran is committed to a peaceful and stable 
neighbor in Iraq, but more interested in exercising a veto on 
the future of the Iraqi people. 
 
In countering the continued extremist threat, the 
increased capability of the Iraqi Security Forces has 
substantially improved the overall security environment. 
More than 601,000 personnel now serve in the ISF -- an 
increase of over 21,000 personnel since our last report to 
you in August. 
 
There are now 165 Iraqi Army combat battalions conducting 
operations, an increase of 4 Iraqi Army combat battalions 
since our last report.  Nearly 70 percent or 115 of these 
Iraqi 
Army combat battalions are assessed to be "in the lead" 
for operations. 
 
The expansion of the Air Force and the Navy lags behind 
that of the Army.  There's nothing surprising about this 
given the technical platforms that the Air Force must 
acquire and learn to sustain.  While the Air Force and the 
Navy possess limited capabilities, comprehensive force 
development strategies are being implemented. 
 
The Air Force is now flying around 350 sorties a week and 
playing an increasingly active counterinsurgency role, 
flying surveillance and reconnaissance missions in support 
of the Iraqi Security Forces, and providing important 
logistics support with their mobility aircraft.  Next 
year, we expect the first precision air-to-ground attack 
capability to be fielded with Cessna 208 Caravans fitted 
with Hellfire missiles.  The Iraqi Air Force recently 
graduated its first initial entry pilots who are now 
flying, and there are many more to follow. 
 
The Navy is conducting three times as many patrols as it 
did last year, with increasing amounts of boarding and 
searching of vessels coming into Iraqi territorial waters 
in the Northern Arabian Gulf.  The Navy has just taken 
delivery of the first six of 26 modern patrol craft and is 
expecting the delivery of four large patrol ships from 
Italy in 2009. 
 
The recent announcement by the Government of Iraq to 
purchase C-130 transport aircraft and armed reconnaissance 
helicopters also marks a significant step toward 
self-sufficiency. 
 
The National Police also continue to increase their 
effectiveness and are now staffed at over 41,000 
personnel.  The police continue to stress better 
ethno-sectarian balance within the force both through 
recruiting and assignments. 
 
Next, I would like to provide an update on the Coalition 
role. 
 
In September, on the margins of the UN General Assembly, 
President Talabani noted with thanks the role of those 
countries that have contributed to the Coalition and NATO 
Training Mission - Iraq.  Currently, Coalition members 
other than the United States contribute over 6,000 forces 
to the Multi-National Force and some 300 personnel to 
UNAMI.  Since our last briefing, approximately 3,000 
Coalition personnel departed theater and others will 
return home soon.  At the same time, continued political 
and economic support by the Coalition and the 
international community will remain critical to the 
success of Iraqi efforts to build a stable and secure 
country. 
 
MNF-I is continuing to progressively transfer 
responsibility for security to the Government of Iraq. 
This process of transitioning security responsibilities to 
the ISF is increasingly being led by Iraqi officials. 
Thirteen out of 18 provinces are now under provincial 
Iraqi control.  Anbar Province -- once a stronghold of AQI 
-- transitioned on September 1st, Babil Province 
transitioned on October 23rd, and Wasit Province 
transitioned on October 29th.  A joint coalition - Iraqi 
effort is anticipated to assess conditions in and 
facilitate transition of the remaining provinces:  Salah 
ad Din, Ta'mim, Diyala, and Ninewa within the next several 
months, culminating with the planned transfer of security 
authority for Baghdad in June 2009. 
 
The improvement in security has helped to foster political 
reconciliation.  Since our last report, the Iraqi Council 
of Representatives unanimously passed a Provincial 
Elections Law that will provide for local elections in 14 
of Iraq's 18 provinces early next year.    The provincial 
elections are a major step toward political stabilization. 
Sunnis who boycotted the 2005 provincial elections will 
compete for political power in the provinces that once 
were the heartland of the insurgency. 
 
UNAMI also remains deeply engaged in elections preparation. 
Indeed, UNAMI's work with the Iraqi government proved critical 
in achieving this Elections Law.  We commend UNAMI's plans to 
expand its footprint in Iraq and will dedicate ourselves to 
providing assistance as necessary so that UNAMI can continue 
to assist the Iraqi government with other critical issues, 
such as the relocation and reintegration of Iraqi refugees and 
the internally displaced.  We strongly support the 
construction of the proposed UN compound in Baghdad and 
commend the Government of Iraq on its initial pledge of 25 
million dollars so that planning for this facility may 
proceed. 
 
UNAMI is heavily involved in negotiating the disputed internal 
boundaries between the KRG and the Government of Iraq.  It 
issued a first set of recommendations in June and its next 
recommendation will set the state for a resolution of Kirkuk 
and the other disputed territories, a key step in creating 
stability for all of Iraq. 
 
Iraq has made significant diplomatic gains, with most of 
the countries in the region normalizing their diplomatic 
presence in Baghdad.  Since our last report, Syria and the 
Arab League have joined Iraq's other neighbors in naming 
ambassadors to Iraq -- and many of these ambassadors are 
now on the ground in Baghdad.  Other neighbors, including 
the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, have sent 
high-level delegations to Baghdad.  We encourage others in 
the region to follow their example. 
 
Finally, I want to highlight that negotiations continue 
between the United States and the Iraqi government on our 
transitioning relationship, with a goal of a strong and 
strategic relationship with Iraq, which respects both 
countries' sovereignty and serves both countries' 
interests. 
 
Mr. President, the report of the Secretary-General, which 
is before the Security Council today, highlights the 
sustainable progress that has been achieved by the Iraqi 
Government, with the assistance of the United Nations and 
the support of the MNF-I and Iraqi Security Forces.  The 
international community supports a free, democratic, 
pluralistic, federal, and unified Iraq, and I call upon 
all parties to renew their commitment to assist the 
Government of Iraq in continuing the hard work to overcome 
the many challenges that remain. 
 
Thank you Mr. President. 
RICE