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DE RUEHRA #0693/01 3181536
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 131536Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY RIGA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5375
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000693 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV LG
SUBJECT: NEW LATVIAN PARTIES STRUGGLING TO GAIN TRACTION 
 
¶1. Summary: With public trust in established Latvian political 
parties hitting record lows, two new parties have emerged hoping to 
gain momentum in the June 2009 local and European elections before 
settling down in Saeima, Latvia's parliament, in the 2010 elections. 
Both Sabiedriba Citai Politikai (Society for a different politics, 
SCP) and Pilsoniska Savieniba (Civic Union, PS) came into being 
after splits within the existing parties and thus lack promising 
newcomers. Yet, both will try to overcome the public skepticism of 
politics and repeat the success of other Latvian parties formed 
shortly before elections and winning them.  Their greatest 
challenges will be raising funds and convincing voters that they 
offer anything new.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  The core of the economically center-left SCP is formed by former 
members of the ruling rightist People's Party (TP), most notably 
former minister of foreign affairs Artis Pabriks and minister of 
regional development Aigars Stokenbergs. The latter was expelled 
from TP for publicly criticizing the party in October 2007 and 
founded an NGO "Society for Political Change," which in 2008 was 
transformed into a political party. He was joined by Pabriks, who 
left TP after having expressed his frustration with the party's 
handling of attempts to dismiss the anti-corruption chief. The party 
has declared establishing a welfare state similar to those found in 
the Scandinavian countries its main aim and led the fight for a 
failed referendum in August to increase pensions. SCP counts 
approximately 450 registered members and was supported by 3.7% of 
voters in an October public opinion poll by SKDS.  Pabriks and 
Stokenbergs are the only ones representing the party in Saeima and 
they cannot run for other office or their seats will return to TP. 
Both MP's, as well as party chair Gatis Kokins, have cited raising 
funds as the chief need of the party. 
 
¶3. PS defines itself as a "party of patriots, rooted in the regions" 
and mainly comprises former members of the Fatherland & Freedom 
(TB/LNNK) and New Era (JL) parties. Party leaders Sandra Kalniete 
(previously JL) and Girts Valdis Kristovskis (previously TB/LNNK) 
have for years belonged to the Latvian political elite, serving as 
ministers of foreign affairs and defense respectively. PS, which was 
founded in April 2008, is considered an official faction in Saeima, 
consisting of six MP's. It is set to grow to seven as a TB/LNNK 
deputy, convicted of fraud and forced to resign from Saeima, will be 
replaced by a former TB/LNNK member who has since joined PS. 
According to the October SKDS poll, PS is supported by 1.8% of 
voters.  Interestingly, the party's poll numbers dropped by about 
half when pollsters stooped referring to it as "Kalniete and 
Kristovskis' new party" and instead used its official name.  It has 
around 400 registered members. 
 
¶4. The first test for both parties will be municipal elections 
scheduled for June 2009.  These elections will be the first in which 
parties will need to secure 5% of the vote in each district to win 
election to the local council.  Despite low popularity ratings and 
the 5% threshold, officials in both parties are optimistic about 
their future prospects in conversations with us.  SCP is even aiming 
for at least 20% of votes in the Riga city election (highly 
unlikely, in our view).   Both parties are banking on the low 
popularity of current parties and lack of trust in the political 
system to propel them to victory. According to a Eurobarometer poll, 
Latvian trust in political parties is lower than in any other 
country of the European Union, with only 5% of the residents saying 
they trusted parties. According to polls, only Harmony Center, the 
Russian-dominated alliance of left wing parties, has an approval 
rating above the 10% mark. 
 
¶5. In Latvia, newly-founded parties have a tradition of winning in 
every election since the restoration of independence (save 2006 when 
there were no new ethnic-Latvian parties).  However, all of these 
parties succeeded by bringing in "fresh faces" not previously 
involved in politics and who enjoyed high personal popularity with 
the public.  Although both parties have well known political names 
in them, neither possesses any notable fresh faces at this time. 
Both parties are hoping to recruit high-profile new members.  SCP is 
known to be actively courting the former editor-in-chief of Diena 
newspaper, Sarmita Elerte, and PS has pursued some younger people 
best known from music or television.  Rumors that former president 
Vike Freiberga would join SCP have so far been just rumors. 
 
¶6. Comment:  In the short run, the success of both parties will 
depend on their ability to dissociate themselves from the extremely 
unpopular governing coalition, in which both have roots, and to 
attract financing and new members. In this respect, problems could 
arise particularly for SCP as it faces the hard task of convincing 
the public its leaders have nothing to do with their former party, 
TP.  Additionally, Latvia's tough economic climate makes raising the 
needed funds even more difficult.  And too much success in fund 
raising would only arouse public suspicion that these parties offer 
nothing new.  The first real test for both parties will be the 
municipal elections in June 2009, especially in Riga.  A strong 
showing will make them viable forces for the 2010 Saeima elections. 
A weak one will almost certainly lead to their closure or merger 
with other parties. 
 
 
RIGA 00000693  002 OF 002 
 
 
Larson