VZCZCXRO7827
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHPOD #0282/01 3151817
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 101817Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
INFO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1025
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 1113

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000282 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO LOCAL ELECTIONS -- KOSOVO RECOGNITION NOT A MAJOR 
FACTOR 
 
REF: PODGORICA 210 
 
PODGORICA 00000282  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: The coastal tourist town of Kotor witnessed, 
on November 9, the first elections in Montenegro since the GoM 
recognition of Kosovo's independence. The party of PM Djukanovic 
-- the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) -- increased its 
representation in the city assembly, a significant outcome given 
that the election was touted by some as a bellwether of popular 
opinion on the Kosovo issue.  The election also was 
characterized by substantial campaign bickering between current 
(national and local) coalition partners -- the DPS and the 
Social Democratic Party (SDP). The two parties are running 
separately for the first time in Kotor since 1996. All parties 
told us they are open to nearly any post election coalition, 
leaving the door open for a ruling coalition shake up in Kotor. 
End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) According to the initial results (which should be 
formally confirmed on November 13 if no complaints are filed), 
the DPS won 40 percent of votes (14 mandates), followed by 
Socialist People's Party (SNP) with 19 percent (7 mandates), the 
Serbian List (SL) with 11 percent (4 mandates), SDP with 9 
percent (3 mandates) and Liberal Party (LP) with 6 percent (2 
mandates). Movement for Change (PzP), People's Party (NS), and 
Croatian Civic Initiative (HGI) will have a single councilor per 
party. The total number of councilors elected was 33. The 
preliminary data from the Centre for Democratic Transition 
(CDT), which is the only organization which observed the 
elections, puts turnout at roughly 64 percent of the 17,818 
registered voters. No irregularities were reported on election 
day. 
 
 
 
Kosovo: Not the Issue, All About Improving Living Standards 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) PolCouns met with representatives of each of the eight 
parties running in the local election -- DPS, SDP, HGI, SNP, LP, 
NS, PzP, and SL -- on November 5. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Infrastructure improvements and basic standard of 
living issues topped every party's campaign priorities. Current 
ruling coalition parties DPS and SDP pointed to the improvements 
already completed "under their tenure," such as the new tunnel 
(bypassing a treacherous mountain pass) on the road to the old 
city and the growing tourism sector. Both parties -- though SDP 
more eloquently and in much more detail -- outlined the ongoing 
development of Kotor as a primary tourist destination for the 
country and pointed to plans already in the works for further 
road and basic infrastructure improvements. At the final rally 
before the pre-election silence, PM (and DPS President) Milo 
Djukanovic told voters to remember that the DPS, which has been 
leading the ruling coalition in Kotor for the last four years, 
had lived up to all they promised voters four years ago. SNP, 
NS, and the Liberals (the LP also was part of the previous 
ruling coalition) also highlighted infrastructure improvements 
as their key post-election priority for the next Council. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Only the SL (composed of largely the same parties that 
make up the list at the national level, and headed by Andrija 
Mandic's Serbian People's Party (SNS)), raised the GoM's Kosovo 
decision as an issue for the elections. SNS Municipal Board 
President Ljubo Bozovic told us that the Kotor election would 
serve as a referendum on the Kosovo issue. In the end it may 
have helped to shore up SNS/SL voters -- the SL doubled their 
mandates from two seats to four -- but the strong DPS results 
indicate that the issue did not resonate with most citizens. 
 
DPS - SDP Showdown: A Harbinger of Things to Come? 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) Though leaders of both parties were very polite and 
diplomatic when talking directly with us about their coalition 
partner, both have been outspoken critics of the other in the 
weeks leading up to the election. The pre-electoral campaign was 
characterized by strong rhetoric particularly between the DPS 
Mayor of Kotor, Marija Catovic, and the SDP Speaker of 
Parliament, Ranko Krivokapic (a native of Kotor). Some 
highlights of their open and very public clash included 
Krivokapic accusing the local DPS of supporting the opposition 
proposal for the local council to consider a resolution 
recommending the GoM revoke decision on Kosovo and accusations 
that some local DPS officials had participated in the 1992 siege 
of Dubrovnik. In response, Mayor Catovic claimed that Krivokapic 
had no interest in serving the public and is only interested in 
making political decisions that personally benefit him. She also 
accused Krivokapic of trying to illegally change the town's 
urban plan. 
 
 
PODGORICA 00000282  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Results: PzP Biggest Loser; SNP on the Rise? 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The DPS was the biggest overall winner, winning 14 
seats (the same number alone as the DPS-SDP coalition won 
together in 2004). The SL gained two additional mandates, but 
most parties saw a small decrease in the number of councilors. 
Opposition PzP appears to be the biggest loser in these 
elections; compared to the number of votes the party received in 
the April 2008 Presidential elections, its support has decreased 
significantly -- by 75 percent. (Note: the PzP had no local 
councilors in the previous council as they had not been formed 
as a political party at the time of the 2004 elections. End 
note.) On the other hand, though technically losing two seats 
since 2004 (from nine to seven mandates), Srdjan Milic's SNP 
emerges as one of the winners in the election, gaining a seven 
percent increase in support since the Presidential elections 
last April. The SNP looks increasingly to be positioning itself 
as the most relevant non-nationalist opposition party, while the 
PzP continues to flounder. As Milic and the SNP continue to 
pursue a more moderate opposition stance (on issues such as 
Kosovo for example, they sided with the united opposition 
initially, but ultimately decided not to boycott parliament with 
the SL), it is likely that the strongly pro-Serb voters within 
SNP gave their votes to the SL. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Early indications are that the DPS, who need just three 
seats to form a majority, will look to form a coalition with the 
Liberals who have two seats and the minority Croatian HGI who 
have one seat. Local DPS leader Borislav Kascelan has said that 
he would resign if the DPS strikes a deal with the SDP, and so 
far it appears that the vitriolic rhetoric of the campaign has 
done irreparable damage to relations between the former 
partners, at least in Kotor.  This will throw the SDP into the 
opposition and could presage tensions at the national level. 
Theoretically, any party is in a position to form a coalition 
and send DPS into the opposition; however, given the good 
relations the DPS traditionally has had with both the LP and HGI 
and the fact that the SDP told us on November 5 that they would 
never consider a coalition with pro-Serb parties, a coalition 
excluding the DPS is extremely unlikely. 
 
 
 
Possible Irregularities with Prison Votes 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
9 (SBU) CDT representative Milica Kovacevic told us on November 
10 that the Municipal Election Commission counted 22 votes from 
the "Spuz" prison, out whom 21 voted for the DPS. Although the 
prison was not registered as a separate polling station, on 
election day the prison functioned as a separate polling station 
(technically the Municipal Election Comission must approve all 
stations in advancve).  Observers were not allowed to monitor, 
and the prison votes were included in the total number of votes 
cast. This potential irregularity is extremely relevant as it is 
likely to give the DPS an additional, fifteenth mandate which 
would enable it to establish a government with just the LP. 
Additionally, the difference between the DPS and SNP for the 
last mandate was only 15 votes, so the DPS (unofficially) might 
win the fifteenth mandate because of this polling station. (The 
results will be officially apprived later this week.) 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) The DPS, with support from both (or either) the LP and 
HGI, will most likely remain in power in Kotor. Its overwhelming 
success has shown that the popular vote -- at least in Kotor -- 
has not changed dramatically since the GoM's decision to 
recognize Kosovo's independence. While the DPS remains by far 
the strongest political party, Andrija Mandic's SL is 
increasingly perceived as the primary pro-Serb opposition party, 
and SNP appears to be attracting some previously PzP centrist 
voters. Although it remains to be seen how the DPS and SDP will 
position themselves in advance of the national parliamentary 
elections that are due by fall 2009, the most recent 
developments at the national level (REF) and the pre-electoral 
campaign in Kotor are signs of some vulnerabilities in the 
coalition. It is looking increasingly likely that the DPS and 
SDP will run separately at the national level, though a 
post-election coalition would still be a possibility. SNP's 
strong showing in Kotor should continue to position the party 
well to be legitimately considered by the DPS for a future 
national coalition. However, many pundits believe that the 
political games between DPS and SDP are artificial and that 
neither would benefit from ending their coalition, at least at 
the national level. End comment. 
MOORE