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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002969 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI PINR KISL IN
SUBJECT: DID DIKSHIT DELIVER? DELHI DECIDES 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: Delhi Assembly elections, to be held November 
29, are heading to a tight finish between the sitting 
Congress Party government of popular, two-term Chief Minister 
Sheila Dikshit, and her Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) opponent 
V.K. Malhotra.  Adding drama, and national significance, to 
what historically was a two party fight, Uttar Pradesh (UP) 
Chief Minister Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) will 
employ its blatant caste politics strategy in an attempt to 
play spoiler and perhaps kingmaker.  In addition to 
inflation, the most potent issues revolve around local 
development: electricity, water, roads, and housing.  The BJP 
has tried to make terrorism (always more of a national 
concern) an issue, but gained relatively little traction. 
All bets are off, however, if bombs rock Delhi during the 
last week of the campaign.  Early indications pointed towards 
a BJP victory based largely on anti-incumbency, with the BSP 
mainly damaging Congress.  However, the tide seems to have 
turned and it appears the Congress and BJP are running much 
closer, which makes the BSP's final tally all the more 
important.  Even with only five to ten seats, Mayawati may be 
in a position to choose -- may have to choose -- between the 
two national parties.  A hung legislature with Mayawati 
playing kingmaker would have national level implications as 
the same scenario could be replayed after parliamentary 
elections next year.  Results of the Delhi Assembly elections 
will be announced on December 8.  End Summary. 
 
Dikshit Battles Anti-Incumbency 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Most Embassy interlocutors admit Sheila Dikshit 
achieved much developmental progress during her two five-year 
terms.  Delhi, along with most of urban India, grew 
tremendously in the last ten years.  But with this growth 
have come the inevitable problems: too much traffic and 
pollution, and not enough electricity, water, public 
transportation, adequate roads, or housing.  Add to this 
inflation and the recent terrorist bombings and any incumbent 
would be facing an uphill battle.  Yet, Dikshit remains 
personally popular, even if the feeling among Delhites does 
not extend fully to her party.  Both Congress Party President 
Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will hold 
rallies in support of Dikshit during the final week of 
campaigning.  Interestingly, both rallies will be in 
constituencies reserved for Scheduled Caste candidates, 
indicating Congress leaders are worried about Mayawati's BSP 
and want their big guns pointed directly at her.  Even if the 
BSP doesn't win any seats outright, votes for the BSP will 
come overwhelmingly at the expense of the Congress Party, 
thereby tipping the balance in favor of the BJP. 
 
BJP Smells Victory, Now Less Fragrant 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Early on, most journalists and political section 
contacts assumed the BJP would handily win a majority given 
the strong anti-incumbent strain in Indian politics.  But as 
the campaign entered its final three weeks, the race 
tightened and the tone changed.  The BJP failed to capitalize 
on early momentum and Chief Minister Dikshit has proved a 
resilient political personality.  Additionally, V.K. 
Malhotra, the BJP's 77-year-old Chief Minister candidate, has 
failed to energize his party.  The two initial BJP 
prospective leaders, Harsh Vardhan and Vijay Goel, came from 
rival factions within the BJP.  Malhotra, a senior BJP 
politician who was first elected Chief Executive Councilor of 
Delhi (roughly the Chief Minister position) in 1967, 
represented a compromise choice.  He is a seasoned politician 
-- with the added distinction of having defeated Prime 
Minister Manmohan Singh in parliamentary elections in 1999 -- 
but does not have the force of personality and charisma 
needed to connect with voters in a modern day Indian 
election.  Even still, he stands a good chance of reclaiming 
the job he held over 40 years ago as power outages, traffic 
 
NEW DELHI 00002969  002 OF 002 
 
 
congestion and pollution continue to plague the city and 
anger voters. 
 
BSP Looks to Play Spoiler, Kingmaker 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (U) Mayawati's BSP remains the wildcard.  No one is quite 
sure how well the party will fare.  In recent state elections 
outside UP, the BSP managed to deny seats to Congress Party 
candidates, but failed to muster the votes to win any seats. 
Mayawati has spent significant resources to a gain a foothold 
in Delhi.  Not surprisingly, the BSP focused on those 
constituencies with high numbers of Dalit migrants from UP 
and Bihar.  However, even in wealthy South Delhi 
neighborhoods, signs with the BSP's elephant are prevalent. 
For the BSP, "issues" remain less important than selecting 
candidates with the right caste background.  According to 
political section contacts, Mayawati's social engineering 
will win the BSP three to four seats, though some are 
predicting as many as ten or eleven.  Originally, Mayawati 
planned a series of four to five rallies in Delhi.  It now 
appears she may only hold one.  The main draw for the BSP 
remains the sheer force of Mayawati's personality.  The 
number of her public appearances will likely correlate to the 
success, or failure, of her candidates. 
 
Local Election, National Implications 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) Comment: Two factors make the Delhi assembly elections 
important.  First, the polls will take the electoral 
temperature of urban India shortly before national polls, due 
before May 2009.  As the national capital, Delhi has long 
punched above it weight politically.  But even with 14 
million residents, Delhi remains small in pure electoral 
terms, sending only seven members to the Lok Sabha.  Due to 
the personal popularity of Chief Minister Dikshit, the 
election mostly resembles a mayoral campaign.  Local 
development issues will prove the deciding factor.  On this 
account, the electorate appears fairly evenly split, though 
most analysts still give a slight edge to the BJP because of 
the BSP factor. 
 
¶6. (U) Comment continued: Second, and perhaps more 
interesting, the balance between the Congress Party, the BJP 
and the BSP bears a striking resemblance to each party's 
current national standing.  Should Mayawati gain enough seats 
to play kingmaker, she will have to show her hand, and choose 
between the Congress and the BJP.  Relations between Mayawati 
and the Gandhi family are currently at all time low after a 
spate of personal attacks over the last few months.  In UP 
Mayawati aligned with the BJP twice in the past -- and 
double-crossed them both times.  But with her eye on the 
Prime Ministership, she will be loathe to turn off Muslim 
voters by siding with their archenemy, just as the BJP would 
be wary of Mayawati's word.  In the end, Delhi may face a 
hung legislature with frantic horse-trading and high 
uncertainty as the two national parties try to cobble 
together a majority.  End Comment. 
WHITE