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O 071357Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4112
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNISL/ISLAMIC COLLECTIVE
RUCNNSG/NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS GROUP COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7128
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 5472
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 2879
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 1424
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 5873
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RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 7119
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 7947
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002889 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KMDR KPAO ECON PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC
ENRG, TRGY, PTER, IN 
SUBJECT: INDIANS EXCITED, GOI CAUTIOUS ABOUT OBAMA VICTORY 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 2878 
     ¶B. NEW DELHI 2860 
     ¶C. NEW DELHI 2852 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: The Indian public and the media heralded 
Barack Obama's presidential victory with joy, amazement and 
admiration.  Indians from all social strata had followed the 
election with more interest than any previous U.S. 
presidential election.  Many of the national dailies devoted 
several pages to election coverage and most editorials were 
effusive in their praise for the President-elect (reftels). 
The GOI responded quickly, President Pratibha Patil, Prime 
Minister Manmohan Singh, Congress Party chief Sonia Gandhi 
and Leader of the Opposition L.K. Advani sent prompt 
congratulatory messages.  There was another strand of 
reaction that was more subdued and cautionary.  The public 
policy/think tank/columnist community, while generally 
welcoming the election results, expressed concern over what 
shape the next administration's policies would take on three 
issues: Kashmir, outsourcing, and "nuclear issues."  On 
Kashmir, there is concern that the Obama Administration would 
use "solving Kashmir" as a carrot for greater help from 
Pakistan in the fight against the terrorists on the 
Pak-Afghan border.  Outsourcing concerns boiled down to a 
fear that if the global economy continues to deteriorate, the 
U.S. would "turn protectionist."  Finally on nuclear issues, 
the articles noted President-elect Obama's initial 
ambivalence towards the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Initiative, 
and expressed an anxiety that despite the completion of the 
Civil Nuclear Agreement, a Democratic administration may 
pursue a more expansive nonproliferation agenda.  End 
Summary. 
 
Excitement and Congratulations 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (U) The 2008 U.S. presidential election elicited huge 
interest in India.  Most Indians were amazed at the mere fact 
of Barack Obama's candidacy as an African-American.  There 
were strong expressions of support for Obama in the run-up to 
the election from average Indians as well as politicians. 
With the election results in, media began to speculate as to 
when India would see its first Dalit prime minister. 
 
¶3. (U) The election results drew widespread congratulations, 
including immediately released letters from Prime Minister 
Singh, President Patil and Congress Party President Sonia 
Gandhi.  Prime Minister Singh's letter stated, "The people of 
India see your election as a historic mandate," and included 
an invitation to visit India as soon as possible.  Ever the 
opposition politician and with an eye towards India's coming 
national elections, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader L.K. 
Advani framed his congratulatory message within the context 
of the need for electoral change. 
 
Kashmir 
------- 
 
¶4. (U) Yet, there was another strand of Indian reaction - 
that of the public policy/think tank community - which was 
more guarded and less effusive about President-elect Obama's 
victory.  The concerns of this group are rooted primarily in 
a pre-November 4 interview on MSNBC in which candidate Obama 
reportedly said: "The most important thing we are going to do 
with respect to Afghanistan is actually dealing with 
Pakistan.  And, we have got to work with the newly elected 
government there in a coherent way that says, terrorism is 
now a threat to you.  Extremism is a threat to you.  We 
should try to resolve the Kashmir crisis so that they 
(Pakistan) can stay focused not on India, but on the 
situation with those militants."  C. Raja Mohan, perhaps the 
most highly regarded Indian foreign policy columnist who is 
 
NEW DELHI 00002889  002 OF 003 
 
 
well disposed towards the U.S. and led the public arguments 
in favor of the U.S.-India civil nuclear deal, captured the 
concerns when he reproduced the MSNBC quote and noted that 
India should object strongly to third element of the quote, 
with its reference to Kashmir. Raja Mohan and most others 
interpreted the Kashmir reference as an offer to Pakistan of 
American activism in Kashmir in return for Pakistani support 
in Afghanistan.  At the DCM's November 5 reception to 
celebrate the U.S. elections, almost every journalist, member 
of parliament, academic and think tank luminary that PolOffs 
talked to expressed concern over the next administration's 
views on Kashmir. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Almost every major English language newspaper 
carried front page articles on November 5 and 6 discussing 
what they perceive to be President-elect Obama's position on 
Kashmir.  They also referred to a recent interview with Joe 
Klein of "Time" magazine in which candidate Obama is quoted 
as saying he would consider appointing former President 
Clinton as special envoy for resolving the Kashmir issue. 
Sidhartha Varadarajan of the Hindu noted that the Democratic 
"re-conquest of the White House has filled the (Indian) 
strategic establishment with a certain sense of foreboding." 
He said that the public policy community fears 
"re-hyphenation" of India and Pakistan in American foreign 
policy.  Indrani Bagchi of the Times of India fears that many 
of President-elect Obama's foreign policy advisors are still 
in the "solve Kashmir" phase and "eight years behind the 
curve" on U.S.-India relations.  At the same time, there are 
some voices suggesting that either the foreign policy 
community should not pay so much attention to campaign 
pronouncements or that there is a possibility that a newly 
confident India could more equally engage the U.S. on these 
and other issues. 
 
¶6.  (U)  The Kashmir separatists jumped on the stories about 
candidate Obama's statements on Kashmir.  All Party Hurriyat 
Conference leader Mirwaiz Omar Farooq welcomed the remarks, 
noting, "We see a role for the U.S. in resolution of the 
Kashmir issue and hope (President) Obama will fulfill his 
responsibility.  Hardline separatist leader Syed Ali Gilani 
said he hoped "(President Obama) will use his good offices to 
resolve the Kashmir issue in its historic perspective." 
Other separatists welcomed what they perceive as greater U.S. 
willingness to support their cause. 
 
Outsourcing 
----------- 
 
¶7. (U) Outsourcing made the list of concerns from numerous 
unnamed GOI sources.  Most media observers dutifully reported 
the talking point, and then dismissed it.  Even Finance 
Minister Chidambaram told the press, "A comment here or a 
comment there on outsourcing should not bother us," when 
asked about comments on outsourcing candidate Obama made 
during the campaign.  Shyam Saran, the Prime Minister's 
Special Envoy on Climate Change, told an interviewer that the 
GOI had a very positive assessment of Senator Obama based on 
some contacts with him before the election.  Saran also 
dismissed the early speculation about what the next 
administration might do on Kashmir or outsourcing. 
 
Nuclear Issues 
-------------- 
 
¶8. (U) Judging by the leaks to the press, the Indian 
government still appears somewhat wary of Senator Obama's 
nonproliferation agenda.  Indians perceived his Hyde Act 
amendment as an unfriendly contribution to the U.S.-India 
Civil Nuclear Initiative, though his statements of support 
for the Initiative during the course of the presidential 
campaign were well received.  Some journalists continue to 
 
NEW DELHI 00002889  003 OF 003 
 
 
wonder in print whether the Bush Administration's political 
commitments with regard to fuel supply assurances will endure 
under the Obama Administration.  What seems to worry the GOI 
most is the influence of the U.S. nonproliferation lobby on a 
Democratic administration and Congress.  Based on press 
commentary, GOI officials are concerned that the Obama 
Administration may pursue a nonproliferation agenda that 
would push India to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty 
(CTBT) and to complete a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty 
(FMCT) before it is ready to do so.  GOI officials hope, 
especially following conclusion of the Civil Nuclear 
Initiative, that subsequent U.S. administrations will treat 
India as a genuine partner in nonproliferation rather than as 
part of the problem. 
 
Comment: All Good Except on Kashmir 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) The GOI wasted no time leaking through the press its 
informal views on areas of possible contention with the new 
U.S. administration.  Thus far the views remain a thumbnail 
sketch and in all likelihood, a set of talking points was 
prepared for a McCain victory as well.  While the outsourcing 
and the CTBT/FMCT concerns appear to be throw away issues, 
there appears to be some concern about the Kashmir policy of 
the next administration.  There has been no GOI statement on 
the next administration's views on Kashmir, but we would not 
be surprised if the GOI in the weeks or months ahead draws a 
line in the sand by issuing a statement warning against 
"third party mediation" in Kashmir.  As Indrani Bagchi of the 
Times of India notes, "there may be a long period of painful 
diplomatic exchanges before the Obama Administration can be 
made to realize that the Kashmir problem is just an alibi for 
Pakistan as it seeks to secure its objectives in Afghanistan 
and have its way viz India." 
 
¶10. (SBU) The overarching tone suggests GOI and the public 
policy community wants and expects the upward trajectory of 
the bilateral relationship to continue.  The enormous public 
outpouring of support for President-elect Obama, however, 
cannot be denied.  Raja Mohan, writing in the Indian Express 
put it best, "The millions of Indians who rooted for Obama 
may have had a better sense of America's big moment and its 
long term significance for India than the foreign policy 
community so preoccupied with measuring the differences 
between Republicans and Democrats, say on free trade and 
nuclear arms control." 
MULFORD