VZCZCXRO9538
PP RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #2580/01 3180501
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 130501Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7571
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 002580 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - A/S Frazer Meeting with ARS Leaders 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  On October 29, Assistant Secretary Frazer 
discussed the importance of a political solution as the foundation 
for increasing security and addressing Somalia's humanitarian crisis 
with leaders of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia.  ARS 
Chairman Sheikh Sharif indicated his resolve to work with all 
Somalis to find a resolution to the Somali problem, beginning with 
the establishment of a unity government.  The ARS leaders noted 
progress in the Djibouti Process, citing the next step as a 
parliament that adds an equal number of members of the ARS to the 
existing organ.  This new parliament would then elect new leaders to 
guide Somalia through a transitional period of three to four years, 
they said, to pave the way for elections.  The ARS leaders asked for 
U.S. assistance in deployment of an international peacekeeping 
force, in drawing more attention to the humanitarian crisis, and in 
generating political support for the peace process.  End summary. 
 
 
 
----------------- 
Committed to 
A Common Solution 
----------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) On October 29, Assistant Secretary of State for African 
Affairs Jendayi Frazer met with leaders of the Alliance for the 
Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) on the margins of the 
Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Summit on Somalia 
in Nairobi (to be reported septel).  It was A/S Frazer's first 
meeting with ARS Chairman Sheikh Sharif Ahmed.  Other ARS 
representatives in attendance were Chairman of the Central Committee 
Sharif Hassan Aden, and members of the ARS Central Committee Asha 
Hagi Elmi, Fowzia Mohamed, and Ahmed Abdullahi Sheikh, all of whom 
are also members of the High Level Committee implementing the 
Djibouti Agreement.  Also present at the meeting were Ambassador 
Ranneberger, Special Envoy Yates, Special Assistant Dana Banks, and 
PolOff Jessica Davis Ba (notetaker). 
 
¶3.  (SBU) ARS Chairman Sheikh Sharif opened the discussion by 
stating that the present humanitarian crisis; deterioration in the 
security, especially the targeting of aid workers; piracy; and other 
problems facing Somalia can all be attributed to political 
differences.  Sharif said, "We are resolved, as Somalis, to work 
together to find a common solution to the Somalia problem to 
eliminate the suffering of our people."  To solve these problems, he 
said, "We have joined the dialogue and have lived up to our 
obligations and hope that you will also honor your promises." 
Sharif concluded his opening remarks by underscoring their intent to 
find a genuine and a lasting solution, beginning with urgent 
attention to humanitarian issues. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Chairman of the ARS Central Committee Sharif Hassan noted 
ARS commitment to a solution to the long-standing issues that have 
plagued Somalia.  He said the ARS is not opposed to establishing 
institutions and that a new governing structure is needed for the 
interim transitional period.  Hassan echoed Sharif's point that a 
political solution must be at the root of any change and that unless 
this is resolved, nothing positive can occur.  Hassan said, "Somalis 
are now mature and they are ready to support a peace settlement." 
He appealed to the U.S. for help to forge a political solution. 
 
 
--------------------- 
Linking Political 
Progress and Security 
--------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) A/S Frazer responded that we share the same objective and 
have the same motivation - the Somali people.  She noted the primary 
U.S. concern as the humanitarian situation and securing access for 
assistance.  A/S Frazer agreed with the ARS analysis of the link 
between political progress and improving security, commending the 
leaders on the steps they have taken to find a political solution to 
sustain the country.  Frazer indicated a willingness to work 
together, emphasizing that the U.S in not prescribing the process. 
She noted the full support of the U.S. for the UN Special 
Representative of the Secretary General for Somalia (SRSG) and for 
the progress made through the Djibouti Agreement.  She said that in 
the short term, visible progress is needed on the ground and that 
Sharif and Hassan are needed in Somalia. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Sharif responded, "It is true that we want to go back to 
our country and to sell the idea of peace, but there are certain 
conditions that must first be met -- complete the shaping of a 
 
NAIROBI 00002580  002 OF 004 
 
 
political framework and establish a clear and viable schedule for 
Ethiopian withdrawal."  Sharif said there should be much more 
clarity on these issues in the coming days, allowing them to move 
forward to prepare for a mission into Somalia.  Responding to A/S 
Frazer's question on how the U.S. can help, Sharif said that as the 
only superpower, a full and open U.S. commitment to the political 
process will help create Somali support for "a viable government, 
responsive to the needs of its people."  In particular, Sharif asked 
for U.S. leadership to deploy an international peacekeeping force, 
and in drawing more attention to the humanitarian crisis, and in 
generating political support for the peace process. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Frazer responded that the U.S. is pushing the UN on a 
peacekeeping force, stating that a clear statement in the communique 
from the IGAD Summit should help move this forward.  On the 
humanitarian side, A/S Frazer said, we are prepared to do more and 
have resources to do so, but are hampered by access.  On the 
political front, she asked for more specifics about "the Sharifs'" 
vision for an interim organ, and for the views of Somalia's 
neighbors on this approach. 
 
----------------------- 
Views on 
Transitional Governance 
----------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Sharif replied, "It is obvious the Transitional Federal 
Government [TFG] has failed."  Any vision for a framework for an 
interim government must be based on equal opportunity for the TFG 
and the ARS, he said.  Sharif said that to begin, the number of MPs 
in the transitional federal parliament should be increased by adding 
275 representatives affiliated with the ARS to the current 
275-member body as a solution to avoid any stakeholders being left 
out.  Hassan added that with only a few months left in the TFG's 
term, it was obvious the TFG would be unable to fulfill the charter 
and that the current government should not be allowed to continue. 
Hassan added that the ARS - TFG agreement should be reflected in the 
composition of parliament.  He concluded that once a unified 
administration was in place, there would be minimal interference by 
spoilers. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Ahmed Abdullahi, who is one of the Central Committee 
leaders from the Islamic Courts contingent told A/S Frazer that ARS, 
with the support from the international community, is more assertive 
than the TFG and can show measurable progress on the ground.  He 
concluded that "we are making a concession to agree to work with 
them, but the humanitarian situation requires us to take urgent 
steps."  Abdullahi said the ARS is ready to play its role in 
facilitating the delivery of aid.  Fowzia Mohamed added that the 
interim administration they have agreed to join is only a temporary 
structure to prepare the ground for elections.  If it does not 
succeed, she said, there will be no elections. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Asha Hagi Elmi thanked the U.S. Government for its 
nwavering support and A/S Frazer's personal commitment to 
energizing the Djibouti peace process.  The Djibouti process, she 
said is the "only symbol of hope for Somalia today."  She echoed the 
sentiment of the other two leaders, stating, "The Somali crisis is 
purely a political crisis that has given birth to the humanitarian 
catastrophe and increasing security risks."  Elmi asked for specific 
and practical advice from us on how to move forward.  Questioned by 
A/S Frazer on the role of the charter in a new inclusive government, 
Elmi replied that the charter would stay in place.  A joint 
administration was necessary to secure the transition, she said. 
 
 
--------------------- 
Governance Structure, 
Timeframe and Support 
--------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) S/E Yates asked for more details about how the interim 
administration would function, specifically whether the ARS/TFG High 
Level Committee (HLC) within the Djibouti process would function as 
the interim government structure.  Sharif said that while the 
concept is good, in practice this arrangement cannot serve the 
purpose of providing a framework for governance.  Any structure 
would need to be within the Charter and while important, there is no 
provision for the HLC in the Charter.  Sharif continued that the 
Somali problem is bigger than the HLC, and the HLC is not enough to 
inspire the confidence of the people. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Sheikh Sharif said he saw the interim structure operating 
 
NAIROBI 00002580  003 OF 004 
 
 
for three to four years to pave the way for Somalis to freely cast 
their votes.  It would be created along the 4.5 formula for clan 
representation, and could be done in two weeks, Sharif said.  He 
said that preliminary conversations with Somalia's neighbors about 
this concept, including Yemen and Saudi Arabia, have been positive. 
 
 
¶13. (SBU) Sherif Hassan believed that the bulk of Somalia's MPs will 
support this idea of a unified interim governance structure.  Thus 
far, parliament has already agreed in principle to enlargement.  The 
ARS is prepared to rely on the 4.5 formula in expanding the 
parliament.  "To advance the prospects for peace, Somalis are ready 
- we want parliament to be open to all Somalis."  Hassan concluded. 
 
----------------------- 
Influence on the Ground 
----------------------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) A/S Frazer asked Sheikh Sharif pointedly whether he has 
the ability to provide security on the ground, especially given 
divisions within the ARS and the continued al-Shabaab threat. 
Sharif replied, "I believe I can act against the lawlessness in the 
country - people are fed up with al-Shabaab and with Asmara." 
Somalis want to hear from those leading the Djibouti process and 
want to see measurable progress on peace, justice, and humanitarian 
assistance, he said.  During the 2006 reign of the Islamic Courts 
Union (ICU), he said, 90 percent of the population supported their 
efforts.  "Now, the challenges are greater but we can lead Somalia 
in restoring peace." 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Hassan continued by noting that there are only a handful 
of ARS Central Committee members on the ground in Asmara.  These 
individuals are not there because of deeply held ideologies, but to 
support Eritrean interests and all Somalis know this, he said.  On 
al-Shabaab, Hassan said, "People are ready to take up arms; nobody 
wants them." 
 
--------------- 
We Have Changed 
--------------- 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Sharif Hassan sought to counter the impression that the 
ICU was undemocratic.  He said, "There is a change, we are willing 
to represent the rights of women, trust us."  Hassan continued by 
using Elmi as an example of a women who has won numerous 
international awards for her work on securing women's rights in 
Somalia.  Hassan said, "The two women [Elmi and Mohamed] who are 
here with us today were MPs and ministers and now they are part of 
the ARS leadership -- We are all interested in change," Hassan said. 
 
 
¶17.  (SBU) According to Hassan, the Ethiopians' stated intention to 
withdraw has attracted much support from the Somali people.  Hassan 
stated categorically that the ARS harbors no animosity toward 
Ethiopia.  "We will remain as brothers and sisters in the region - 
all of us will move toward securing the peace." 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶18.  (SBU) The ARS leadership shares our vision of the inextricable 
link between political progress and increased security and we 
believe they are committed to being part of a long-term political 
solution for Somalia.  In the outcome of the IGAD Summit, however, 
the TFG remains intact and the ARS will not have the immediate 
opportunity to implement the sweeping reforms they want.  While the 
ARS leadership in this meeting offered a vision of change for 
Somalia and within its own ranks, their presentation was short on 
detail.  It is doubtful that adding another 275 members to an 
already ineffectual and combative parliamentary body will create a 
credible foundation for good governance in Somalia.  Given the 
failure of the TFG to make any progress, there is little argument 
that Somalia's transitional institutions are broken.  However, the 
ARS offered only general ideas on how to make progress on the 
political, security, and humanitarian fronts.  Despite their 
assurances, it is unclear what influence the ARS leaders actually 
wield in the country.  The two-week timeframe to stand up a new 
interim governance structure "to include all Somalis" is overly 
ambitious, especially given that an agreed selection process does 
not yet exist.  However, the meeting demonstrated the improved 
relationship between the U.S and the moderates leading the ARS, and 
perhaps provides a fragile foundation on which to address the issues 
 
NAIROBI 00002580  004 OF 004 
 
 
at the core of the Somali crisis. 
 
¶19.  (SBU) Assistant Secretary Frazer has cleared this message. 
 
RANNEBERGER