VZCZCXRO6119
PP RUEHLMC
DE RUEHMU #1411/01 3252229
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 202229Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3419
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 001411 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CEN AND DRL 
STATE PASS USAID FOR LAC-CARDENAS 
NSC FOR FISK/GARCIA 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NU
SUBJECT: ELECTION FRAUD CONTINUES AS AUTHORITIES RELEASE 
PROVISIONAL RESULTS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Robert J. Callahan, reasons 1.4 (b, d) 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: On November 14, 15, and 18, the Supreme 
Electoral Council (CSE) published the provisional results of 
the November 9 municipal elections.  These results show the 
Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) winning 106 of 
the 146 municipalities, the Vamos con Eduardo-Constitutional 
Liberal Party electoral alliance (VcE-PLC) winning 36, and 
the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) winning four.  These 
provisional results increased from 91 to 106 the 
municipalities won by the FSLN, and include some "wins" that 
demonstrate the CSE's continued fraud of the elections. 
Under the CSE's electoral calendar, the political parties now 
enter a three-week appeal process, which the CSE would need 
to resolve before announcing final, official results on 
December 5.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------- 
CSE Publishes Provisional Results 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) On November 9 and 10 the CSE released preliminary 
results of the elections which showed the FSLN won 91 
municipalities, the VcE-PLC alliance won 50 municipalities, 
and the ALN won three municipalities.  (Note: The CSE had not 
released preliminary results for all municipalities.)  The 
council stated these preliminary results were based on 
partial returns from the various municipalities.  On November 
14, 15, and 18, the CSE then published the provisional 
results based on complete returns from the municipalities. 
Of the 146 municipalities that were contested on November 9, 
the CSE's provisional results showed the FSLN won 106 
municipalities, the VCE-PLC won 36 municipalities, and the 
ALN won four municipalities.  Among the 146 races were 
contests for 16 departmental capitals.  According to the 
CSE's results, the FSLN won 13 capitals and the VCE-PLC 
alliance won three capitals.  Following is a break-down by 
department/region: 
 
Department 
(No. of municipalities)     FSLN   VCE-PLC   ALN 
 
Boaco (6)                   2      4 
Carazo (8)                  8      0 
Chinandega (13)             13     0 
Chontales (11)              3      5         3 
Esteli (6)                  4      2 
Granada (4)                 3      1 
Jinotega (8)                3      5 
Leon (10)                   10     0 
Madriz (9)                  9      0 
Managua (9)                 9      0 
Masaya (9)                  9      0 
Matagalpa (14)              9      5 
Nueva Segovia (12)          7      5 
Rio San Juan (6)            4      2 
Rivas (10)                  9      1 
South Autonomous 
Atlantic Region (RAAS) (11) 4      6         1 
 
Total (146)                 106    36        4 
 
¶3.  (U) According to the CSE's electoral calendar, the 
political parties now enter a three-week appeal process where 
they can challenge the provisional results.  The CSE must 
resolve these appeals by December 4, and the Council will 
announce the official, final results on December 5. 
 
------------------------ 
Election Fraud Continues 
------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The CSE's November 14, 15, and 18 provisional 
results showing the FSLN winning 106 municipalities was 
surprising, especially in municipalities where the CSE had 
previously said the VcE-PLC had won.  This was particularly 
true in Juigalpa and Santo Tomas in the department of 
Chontales, and Corinto in the department of Chinandega.  The 
CSE's preliminary reports for these three municipalities on 
November 12 was based on 100% of the returns from the voting 
stations and showed the VcE-PLC alliance wining all three 
mayorships.  However, after the CSE published its provisional 
results these three municipal races were reported as FSLN 
 
MANAGUA 00001411  002 OF 002 
 
 
victories. 
 
¶5.  (C) It is of note that the "winning" party in each of 
these three municipal races switched once the election 
results left the municipal electoral authorities, and moved 
to the control of the departmental or national electoral 
council.  According to a VcE-PLC party poll watcher in 
Juigalpa, the departmental electoral council annulled 4,000 
ballots, which was 25% of the total ballots counted. 
(Historical national norms are between 1%-2%.)  In Santo 
Tomas, Rodolfo Silva Chamorro of the Conservative Party told 
us that preliminary results showed the VcE-PLC winning 70% to 
the FSLN's 30%.  However, the CSE's provisional results 
showed the FSLN winning Santo Tomas by 399 votes and it is 
unclear what happened from the time the results were 
transmitted from the municipal level to the CSE.  Finally, 
the CSE awarded Corinto to the FSLN by 110 votes, where 
previous "final" tallies showed the VcE-PLC winning by 365 
votes.  According to Luis Herrera, a local representative of 
the domestic observer group the Institute for Development and 
Democracy, the departmental electoral council simply annulled 
the results of seven of 51 voting stations (13.7% of the 
voting stations). 
 
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Comment 
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¶6.  (C) The government's fraud of the elections continues 
even a week after election day.  The CSE's announcement of 
winners on one day was easily overturned the next day without 
any justification or explanation.  At a minimum this erratic 
behavior leaves little confidence in Nicaragua's election 
results, the CSE, or the government in general.  According to 
the CSE's electoral calendar, the final, official results are 
scheduled to be announced December 5 after a three-week 
appeal process.  However, CSE contacts tell us this date 
might be advanced and these "provisional" results might be 
ratified as early as November 21, further questioning the 
credibility of Nicaragua's municipal elections. 
CALLAHAN