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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 MANAGUA 001384 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN, DRL, AND INR/IAA 
DEPT PASS TO UAOAS 
DEPT FOR S/GAC - KIM BARDY 
STATE PASS TO USAID 
USAID FOR LAC - CARDENAS, BATTLE AND KITE 
NSC FOR GARCIA AND FISK 
MCC FOR CEO DANILOVICH, BOHN AND SHERINIAN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2028 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM NU
SUBJECT: NICARAGUA: EDUARDO MONTEALEGRE GIVES AMBASSADOR 
EVIDENCE OF MASSIVE FSLN ELECTORAL FRAUD 
 
MANAGUA 00001384  001.2 OF 005 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Robert J. Callahan for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d 
) 
 
¶1.  (S/NF) Summary.  On November 11, the Ambassador met with 
Eduardo Montealegre, the opposition candidate for Mayor of 
Managua, to receive Montealegre's evidence of wholesale, 
blatant election fraud by the GON.  He added that despite 
having his "fiscales" (poll-watchers) systematically expelled 
from voting stations throughout the day and from the 
government's central vote tabulation center on Sunday 
evening, the opposition has been able to reconstruct voting 
results for roughly 95 percent of the vote in the capital, 
which shows a clear opposition victory.  Montealegre said 
this appears to be the case in several other key races. 
Montealegre also provided both anecdotal and documentary 
evidence of pre-meditated, widespread fraud by the FSLN to 
ensure large victories for the ruling party.  We discussed 
the opposition's planned next steps in defending the vote and 
he suggested possible actions the USG might take to exert 
pressure on the GON to ensure a credible, accurate and 
transparent count of votes.  End Summary. 
 
Montealegre Asserts Systematic, Massive Fraud 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2.  (S)  On Tuesday, November 11, Ambassador Callahan met 
with opposition mayoral candidate, Eduardo Montealegre, at 
Montealegre's request, to receive an assessment of the 
situation following the contested results of Nicaragua's 
municipal elections on November 9.  Montealegre began by 
telling us that during the 2006 Presidential elections, he 
reached a decision to concede to Ortega because his own vote 
tallies showed Ortega had won the election.  However, he 
said, this time his tallies show that he won in Managua as 
had opposition candidates in several other cities; and said 
he would not back down.  He recounted the obstacles that 
Liberals confronted beginning on Saturday morning when 
opposition "fiscales" (poll watchers) had difficulties 
obtaining their credentials from the Supreme Electoral 
Council (CSE).  The hurdles continued into Sunday, as those 
poll watchers were repeatedly and systematically expelled or 
excluded from their voting station posts, and many voting 
stations were closed hours earlier than permitted under the 
law.  He said the most problematic hurdle came Sunday evening 
when the CSE expelled (and in some cases detained) opposition 
poll watchers from the CSE central tabulation center and 
barred them from observing the final vote tally at the 
National Stadium. 
 
And Has the Evidence to Prove It 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶3.  (S)  Despite the impediments erected by the GON, 
Montealegre's team had been able to gather the "actas" (vote 
tally sheets) from more than 1990 of Managua's 2107 voting 
stations.  These tally sheets represent about 95 percent of 
Managua's voting sites and more than 406,000 of the total 
 
MANAGUA 00001384  002.2 OF 005 
 
 
ballots that were cast in the Managua race.  His team had 
undertaken a detailed analysis of these documents, but by 
Tuesday evening had already identified several serious 
irregularities.  NOTE:  According to the CSE, there were 
767,033 registered voters in Managua, of which the CSE 
reported that 424,263 voted in Sunday's election, 
representing at least a 55 percent turn-out.  END NOTE. 
 
Excessive Disqualified Votes 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4.  (S) The first thing the opposition noted was an 
abnormally high percentage of "nullified" votes.  The tally 
sheets for Managua show that at least 22,216 votes were 
disqualified; a rate of about 5 percent.  Historical norms 
for Managua races range between 1 and 2 percent.  Montealegre 
asserted that this was the first indication of systematic 
fraud by the GON.  NOTE: The "disqualification" of ballots 
can be made for technical reasons, i.e. vote not marked 
properly, torn or damaged ballot, additional stray marks on 
ballot, etc.  Ballots can also be disqualified on "technical" 
grounds if not properly signed by the election site 
officials.  END NOTE. 
 
Opposition Poll Watchers Expelled 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶5.  (S) According to Montealegre, it seems that by Sunday, 
the FSLN believed it had created conditions and impediments 
that would reduce the turn-out of Liberal voters.  However, 
last minute get-out-the-vote drives by opposition and civil 
society groups appeared to have had a positive effect and, 
according to Montealegre, voter turn out was steady through 
the morning with the trend breaking in favor of opposition 
candidates.  Eduardo told us that by mid-day Sunday the FSLN 
was aware it was in trouble at the voting stations and began 
expelling opposition poll watchers and closing polling 
stations early in an effort to begin manipulating vote 
tallies at voting stations.  When it became clear that even 
stealing votes at voting sites would not be enough to ensure 
an FSLN victory, Montealegre said, the party and the CSE 
decided to engage in wholesale election theft by changing 
votes at the CSE central tabulation center in Managua. 
 
Fabricated Voting Results 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6. (S) Montealegre told us that almost as soon as the CSE 
began operations in the National Stadium on Sunday, his 
campaign began receiving reports that opposition poll 
watchers were being excluded from the vote count.  He said 
that at this point the CSE also began to fabricate vote 
counts.  Some of Montealegre's poll watchers noticed that the 
CSE tally boards did not match the tally sheets for the 
corresponding voting stations and had the presence of mind to 
take phone-camera pictures of the CSE tally boards.  By 
Tuesday evening his team was able to confirm that the 
 
MANAGUA 00001384  003.2 OF 005 
 
 
preliminary vote tallies posted on the CSE website were the 
same as the numbers on the tally boards at the tabulation 
center.  The problem was that the numbers being released by 
the CSE did not match the tallies from the original tally 
sheets from Managua's voting locations. 
 
¶7.  (S) Eduardo showed us 15 examples where the CSE had 
simply fabricated vote tally numbers that bore no relation to 
the original tally sheet vote counts.  Three of the most 
egregious examples came from voting centers 6051232, 6055400 
and 6055402 in Managua.  In each instance, the official tally 
sheet from the voting station records the following vote 
tally for each party: 
 
Location                Party/Votes 
             PLC     FSLN    PRN    ALN    AC 
6051232      95       81      1      3      0   (PLC victory 
by 14 votes) 
6055400     112       68      2      1      1   (PLC victory 
by 44 votes) 
6055402      75      103      0      0      0   (FSLN victory 
by 28 votes) 
 
However, the preliminary "unofficial" vote tally released by 
the CSE (and posted on its website) for these same voting 
districts was as follows: 
 
Location                Party/Votes 
             PLC     FSLN    PRN    ALN    AC 
6051232       5       281     1      3      0   (FSLN victory 
by 276 votes) 
6055400      38       360     0      0      0   (FSLN victory 
by 322 votes) 
6055402       0       400     0      0      0   (FSLN victory 
by 400 votes) 
 
According to the original tally sheets, in the three voting 
districts the PLC wins overall by 30 votes.  However, based 
on the unofficial CSE total, the FSLN wins by 998 votes. 
There is a total vote swing of 1028 votes for the FLSN. 
These are just three examples of case after case where vote 
tallies have been manufactured by the CSE to support an FSLN 
victory.  What is astonishing is that the CSE appears to have 
engaged in fraud even in locations where the FSLN won 
outright per the tally sheet.  (NOTE: Eduardo provided us a 
DVD with images of all the actas and paper copies of his 
samples, which we will forward to the Department.  END NOTE.) 
 
What Next?  Opposition Determined, but Realistic 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶8.  (S) The Ambassador asked Eduardo what steps the 
opposition planned to take to defend the popular vote.  He 
said the opposition plans to continue exerting both public 
and legal pressure.  He told us that the campaign would 
release copies of the fraudulent tallies to the press for 
publication later in the week.  He also told us he had just 
 
MANAGUA 00001384  004.2 OF 005 
 
 
come from a meeting with the OAS mission, where he had 
presented his information.  He also told us that he had 
meetings scheduled for Wednesday with the European Union (EU) 
missions, the Evangelical community and asked whether he 
could formally and publicly present his documentation and 
findings to the Ambassador on Wednesday afternoon.  (NOTE: 
This meeting took place at 2pm local on Wednesday and will be 
reported separately.)  Eduardo confirmed that leadership and 
supporters of both the Conservative Party (PC) and the 
Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) had joined the liberal 
alliance marches on Monday and Tuesday.  He said that support 
from these two de-listed parties was strong and would 
continue.  He also said the Catholic Church and private 
sector associations, like the Nicaraguan-American Chamber of 
Commerce (AmCham) and the Higher Council of Private 
Enterprise (COSEP), had pledged continued solidarity with the 
opposition and had or would issue statements calling for a 
transparent count of the votes.  He said the opposition would 
continue to insist that international observers or an 
international electoral audit take place to restore peoples' 
faith in the election results. 
 
What Next? FSLN Not Likely to Back Down 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶9.  (S/NF) When asked whether the mounting domestic and 
international pressure was likely to cause the FSLN to 
relent, Montealegre responded that he thought it might not be 
effective.  He said he was increasingly convinced that Ortega 
and Murillo did not care about consequences or their 
international reputation.  They were increasingly and solely 
focused on consolidating political power.  He told us that a 
credible source had informed him that on Friday, November 7, 
the FSLN leadership held a final pre-election meeting to 
discuss strategy.  It seems a dispute broke out between First 
Lady Rosario Murillo and the rest of the FSLN leadership. 
Rosario took the position that the political cost of losing 
key municipal races in an open contest was far higher than 
the political cost of stealing the races outright.  Senior 
FSLN officials, including Lenin Cerna, disagreed, arguing 
instead that the party should allow the elections to proceed 
"normally" and abide by the results, even if it meant losing 
Managua and other key cities.  However, according to 
Montealegre's source, Murillo refused to accept this position 
and ordered the FSLN leadership to do whatever was required 
to ensure an FSLN victory.  Montealegre wondered how anyone 
could influence someone with "that mentality." 
 
What Next? Possible USG Actions 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶10.  (S) Montealegre said in spite of the likely 
intransigence of the First Couple, he had hoped the United 
States and other donor nations could take steps to support an 
open, transparent accounting of votes.  He asked whether the 
Embassy or the Department could issue a public statement 
calling for a transparent and open review of the voting 
 
MANAGUA 00001384  005.2 OF 005 
 
 
results.  He also asked whether any Administration officials 
-- HHS Secretary Leavitt, MCC CEO Danilovich and Commerce 
Secretary Gutierrez were mentioned -- could call President 
Ortega or make public statements in support of an 
international electoral audit.  Finally, he also asked 
whether President-elect Obama, or someone from his transition 
team -- perhaps Vice President-elect Biden -- might be 
persuaded to issue a public statement of concern about the 
situation in Nicaragua. 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
 
¶11. (S)  Over the last three days, the united Liberal 
opposition has shown an uncharacteristic adeptness at 
constructing a broad-based coalition in support of their 
position.  We note their success in garnering support from 
religious leaders, the private sector and political parties. 
However, the absence of the civil society NGOs, which lead 
the massive anti-corruption marches in June and July, is a 
gaping hole in this effort.  (By November 13, several civil 
society groups had at least begun to issue statements of 
support for a recount.)  On the other hand, the GON continues 
to use resources of the state to unilaterally impose its 
will, be it payments to the rock-throwing FSLN rank-and-file 
that continue to occupy the capital's rotundas and vandalize 
vehicles and injuring people, or its punctilious application 
of legal technicalities, regardless how capricious the 
interpretation.  We are also concerned that time is on the 
government's side.  It has demonstrated a clear willingness 
and intent to use excessive force to frighten and intimidate 
Nicaraguans who might otherwise speak out. 
 
PARTICIPANTS 
- - - - - - 
 
Ambassador Robert J. Callahan 
Eduardo Montealegre, Candidate for Mayor, PLC-VcE Alliance 
Javier Llanes, Advisor to Montealegre 
Richard M. Sanders, Deputy Chief of Mission 
Chris Robinson, Political Counselor 
Jesse Curtis, Political Officer (note taker) 
CALLAHAN