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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 LAGOS 000479 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS NSC FOR BOBBY PITTMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PM EPET ECON KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: VICE PRESIDENT'S SENIOR SPECIAL ASSISTANT 
SEES PROGRESS IN BRINGING PEACE TO THE NIGER DELTA 
 
REF: A. LAGOS 449 
     ¶B. LAGOS 446 
     ¶C. LAGOS 440 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Robin R. Sanders for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Senior Special Assistant to the Vice 
President Oronto Douglas (strictly protect throughout) told 
Pol-Econ Chief November 22 that Delta State Governor 
Uduaghan, with the support of the Vice President, has brought 
peace to the troubled Warri South and Burutu local Government 
Areas (LGAs); that Bayelsa Governor Silva has obtained the 
agreement of the South-South Governors to coordinate their 
activities with respect to militants; and that Rivers State 
Governor Amaechi had made great strides in improving 
education, skills training and rural agriculture in the 
State.  Newly elected Action Congress Governor Adams 
Oshiomhole has been "well received" by the South-South 
Governors, who recognize his standing earned as a national 
labor leader and as the recipient of popular support in his 
state.  President Yar'Adua has promised to implement swiftly 
the recommendations of the Electoral Reform Commission and 
the Niger Delta Technical Committee, both expected to issue 
in December; and the allocation for the Niger Delta, relative 
to the allocation for the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), in 
the new budget is more important than whomever is chosen to 
head the new Niger Delta Ministry, according to Douglas. 
Discussions in Abuja about amnesty have not yet resulted in a 
policy, or even a decision to have a policy, but a consensus 
is emerging that criminals will be distinguished from 
militants by whether they have committed murder, kidnapping 
for ransom, or some other crime against persons; distinctions 
will be drawn based "on intelligence", Douglas said. (Note: 
Mission has reported what appears to be increased 
intelligence gathering activities by the military Joint Task 
Force (JTF)(Refs), as has the press. End Note) Former 
Economic and Financial Crimes (EFCC) Chairman Ribadu's 
problems result from "police politics" not presidential 
mandate, according to Douglas. Although Douglas paints a 
picture that is, as he describes it, "cautiously optimistic", 
it is clear that he is well aware of the many challenges that 
must be overcome before the Niger Delta crisis is resolved. 
End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (C) Pol-Econ Chief met on November 22 with Oronto Douglas 
(strictly protect throughout), Senior Special Assistant to 
the Vice President for Research, Documentation and Strategy 
during a visit by Douglas to Lagos.  Douglas noted that the 
President's deliberate approach to the Niger Delta had begun 
to pay off.  He noted that the President believes that there 
must be dialogue over the issues in the Niger Delta.  In 
concert with that dialogue, there must be a process to sort 
out the criminal elements from the ordinary people who are 
not engaged in criminal acts. 
 
Uduaghan Brings Peace to Two Troubled LGAs 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (C) The situation in Delta State has come along nicely; 
there is scarcely any problem at the present time, Douglas 
said.  Governor Uduaghan, with the support of the Federal 
Government through the Vice President, has adopted a strategy 
of engagement and inclusion.  There are two Local Government 
Areas, Warri South and Burutu, that have had serious problems 
in the past.  In 1997, there were a series of violent clashes 
in the Warri South LGA between the Itsekiri and the Ijaws, 
the Urhobos and the Itsekiri and the Ijaws and the Urhobos. 
The majority of the population in that LGA is Ijaw, he said. 
Therefore, Governor Uduaghan, who is himself of the Itsekiri 
ethnicity, arranged that the LGA Chairman be an Ijaw man, 
while the Vice Chairman is an Itsekiri.  Other positions were 
arranged with a similar ethnic balance, he said.  The 
candidate for the Chairmanship happened to be Government 
Ekpemupolo's (Tom Polo) brother, George.  In light of the 
history of ethnic violence, and in part because he is Tom 
Polo's brother, the South Warri LGA chairman is very aware 
that he must perform in the position and bring development to 
the community.  In the second LGA, the Burutu LGA, the 
Chairman is Frank Izukumor, a well-educated individual who 
was put forward by the people of the community.  His 
candidacy was then backed by the Governor and by Tom Polo. 
This backing, by the people, the Governor and Tom Polo, gives 
this LGA Chairman the freedom to focus on development for his 
people, not on illicitly "sharing" the funds which pass 
through his hands.  Delta Governor Uduaghan himself took 
charge of establishing peace in these two previously 
troublesome LGAs. 
 
¶4.  (C)  Pol-Econ Chief noted that Chevron had been attacked 
in the last week, and asked how Douglas interpreted that. 
Douglas said that he was not clear where the attacks took 
place, but he believes that they did not take place in Delta 
State.  There are bound to be renegades in any peace deal, he 
said.  Governor Uduaghan is to be commended, Douglas said; 
he has performed in the face of great pressure and has 
achieved peace in his state. 
 
Bayelsa Governor Promotes Common Strategy for Peace 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶5.  (C)  Douglas has spoken with Von Kemedi, who is on 
Governor Silva's staff.  From what he knows from Von, the 
Governor has adopted a policy of persuasion, and is 
attempting to get the militants to forsake militant activity 
and come on board.  Some of the militants have agreed. 
Governor Silva has also taken the initiative to organize the 
Governors of the South-South geopolitical zone to coordinate 
their efforts to bring peace; they can't all have different 
approaches, Silva believes. At a meeting held in Yenagoa 
during the week of November 17, the Governors agreed to take 
a common approach so as to tackle the problem of criminality 
in their states.  They will begin to work out the details 
through their Secretaries to the State Governments, Douglas 
surmised. 
 
Rivers State Scores High on Development 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C)  Asked how he views developments in Rivers State, 
Douglas said he sees the Governor as scoring very high in 
promoting education.  To date, the Governor has sent 600 
people out of the state to pursue college and masters 
degrees.  Douglas has spoken with the Governor's wife about 
the work of her non-governmental organization (NGO), the 
Education Support Initiative.  The NGO is building nursery 
schools throughout the state.  She believes that by beginning 
early to give children a proper education, their success in 
later life is assured and militancy can be avoided.  The 
schools also benefit the parents, especially women, who are 
free to go about fishing or farming activities while children 
three to five are in school.  To find teachers to staff the 
nursery schools, the Governor's wife sent a message to every 
village asking for nominations of individuals with the 
requisite education and skills to staff the preschools.  The 
nominees were all sent to two months of Montessori training. 
 
¶7.  (C) Governor Amaechi has excelled in another area, that 
of skills training, Douglas said.  Like Bayelsa Governor 
Silva, Governor Amaechi has already sent out 60 youths to 
India for training in information technology (IT).  The 
Governor has also made a concerted effort to improve the road 
system in the state.  To improve rural agriculture, he has 
appointed a former Shell Director to head his Rivers State 
Agricultural Development Board.  The Governor is under 
considerable pressure form former Governor Peter Odili, who 
wants Amaechi out of the way, whether through judicial 
challenges or as a result of failure to perform, by 2011, 
Douglas said.  As a result, Amaechi sees his best chance in a 
strategy that gets the support of the masses, not the elites, 
behind him. 
 
Challenges to Akwa Ibom, Cross River Tourism 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C)  Douglas said that, in his opinion, Akwa Ibom (AI) 
was doing very well; of the South-South states, AI is the 
only state in which the German construction firm Julius 
Berger has continued to work.  The planned cargo airport in 
Uyo is under construction, and the tourism corridor between 
the new 5-star Le Meridian resort in Uyo, and the Tinapa 
shopping area in Calabar in Cross River is a good idea, 
Douglas said. (Note: Econoff, visiting Calabar during the 
week of November 17, noted that Tinapa was open and several 
shops doing business.  End Note) However, the road between 
the two locations is now impassable;  in addition to repair, 
it will have to be dualized in order to make it an effective 
means of transportation between the two locations.  Even that 
alone will not be sufficient to jump-start tourism, he said. 
The area will still have to be connected to the large 
population centers in the more easterly parts of the country. 
 Among the ways  to do that, he said, could be to extend a 
rail line from Aba, in Abia State, to Uyo, in Akwa Ibom.  A 
second major consideration in generating tourism is assuring 
security.  If Calabar and Uyo experience a tourism boom, they 
will attract criminals; security must be bolstered in both 
places.  That is why it is essential that the entire 
South-South be secure in order for the individual areas to 
develop, Douglas said. 
 
Edo AC Governor "Well Received" by PDP Colleagues 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶9.  (C)  Asked how he thinks the new Action Congress (AC) 
Governor, Adams Oshiomhole, will work with the other 
South-South Governors, all of whom are from the People's 
Democratic Party (PDP), Douglas said that "party is just a 
label" with no ideological underpinnings.  As a result, PDP 
Governors will have no problem working with Oshiomhole. 
Oshiomhole has a national support base, owing to his years as 
a national labor leader.  Moreover, he has a truly popular 
mandate, Douglas said.  Both elements assure him of the 
respect of his PDP governor colleagues.  At the meeting of 
South-South Governors held in Yenagoa during the week of 
November 17, Oshiomhole was well received, he said. 
Nonetheless, Oshiomhole will not have a big purse to work 
with, not because of anything the former PDP Governor 
Oserhemen Osunbor did, but because of the actions of former 
governor Lucky Igbenedion.  The state is still paying back 
loans from that era, Douglas said.  That will make it 
difficult for Oshiomhole to deliver on his campaign promises 
to provide services to the people such as free education and 
health care.  Douglas said he did his National Youth Service 
in Edo State, where he set up his first NGO, the 
Environmental Rights Action group, and knows the state well. 
Edo State is plagued with north-south tensions, he said. 
Ogba, in the south-west, has oil, and that has generated 
conflicts with the Benin monarch.  However, Douglas said, 
Oshiomhole is an activist and his activism will carry people 
along with him.  In addition, Oshiomhole will no doubt want a 
second term, so he will need to produce results in order to 
be reelected. 
 
Niger Delta Budget More Important Than Minister Pick 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶10.  (C)  Pol-Econ Chief asked Douglas what he was hearing 
about who would be the new Minister for the Niger Delta. 
"The President plays things close to his chest", Douglas 
said.  Unlike the Chairman of the Niger Delta Development 
Committee (NDDC), the Minister does not have to come from the 
Niger Delta.  More important than who is appointed minister, 
he said, is how much money is in the budget for the Niger 
Delta, and how that amount compares with the amount allocated 
to the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).  Having just returned 
from a brief vacation, he will be scrutinizing the budget to 
determine that in the upcoming week.  Key projects include 
the Warri to Akwa Ibom road, for which funding was so long 
delayed under the previous regime.  now that Julius Berger 
has returned to work, the road must be completed, he said. 
The Niger Delta Technical Committee report, which may issue 
during the first week in December, may require submission of 
a supplemental budget request, he said. 
 
¶11.  (C)  Despite the advances made by individual governors, 
development in the Niger Delta states is going more slowly 
than anyone desires, Douglas said.  Douglas is confident, 
however, that by 2011 the governors will have stanched all 
militant activities and achieved their development goals. 
The runup to the 2011 elections is likely to be a 
distraction, Douglas said; things are unlikely to change 
completely in the space of one election cycle, he said. 
Despite this fact, Douglas himself is a "cautious optimist". 
One reason for his optimism is that the Election Reform 
Committee is due to submit its report to the President in 
December, and the President has promised to implement swiftly 
those recommendations related to the Presidency and Executive 
Branch over which he has control.  In addition, he thinks 
that the "right message" is getting through and will assure 
that change is inevitable. 
 
¶12.  (C)  Another reason to be optimistic is that the 
Technical Committee on the Niger Delta will submit its report 
to the Presidency soon, probably during the first week of 
December, Douglas said.  Although he has not seen a draft of 
the report, he met recently with Ledum Mittee, the Chairman 
of the Technical Committee, who was finalizing the draft. 
The President will move swiftly on the Committee 
recommendations to the Presidency and other Federal 
Government agencies.  However, recommendations that require 
amendment of the Constitution will fall within the purview of 
the legislative branch, he said. 
 
Distinguishing Militants From Criminals for Amnesty 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶13. (C) Pol-Econ Chief drew Douglas back to his earlier 
point, and asked how he would go about distinguishing 
militants from criminals.  He characterized the militants 
into three categories:  1) Conscientious militants, driven by 
ideology and interested in the survival of their communities 
and their people;  2) Sympathetic, aligned, or opportunistic 
militants, who had worked for the discredited governors or 
other politicians, then when they realized the political game 
was over, adopted the name militant; and finally 3) Criminals 
who style themselves militants.  Pol-Econ Chief pressed 
Douglas to indicate how one could possibly distinguish 
between the three categories. "Through intelligence 
gathering", he said. (Note:  Although Douglas did not expand 
on this point, Poloffs have reported what appears to be 
increased intelligence gathering activities on the part of 
the JTF. (Refs)  In addition, the Saturday, November 22 
Guardian reported "A new security approach, which entails the 
secret monitoring of families suspected to have links with 
militants" is causing tension in some Delta State LGAs. End 
Note) There are fewer and fewer conscientious militants, he 
said.  Whether they engage in kidnapping is an essential 
criterion for distinguishing between the three groups, he 
said. 
 
¶14.  (C)  Pol-Econ Chief asked whether the Federal government 
is considering granting amnesty to militants.  Douglas said 
that some discussion have already been held in Abuja about 
amnesty, and a consensus is emerging around three principles. 
 First, amnesty is appropriate for a person who gives up his 
arms, eschews violence and is reintegrated into society. 
Second, that person must not have committed murder, 
kidnapping for ransom, or other act which causes harm to 
persons.  If a person were to give up his arms, but later be 
found to have been engaged in hostage taking, for example, 
that individual would be tried in a court of law.  A fair 
trial would provide him with the opportunity to defend 
himself against the allegations.  Third, the individual must 
not have been a mastermind or ringleader of a murder, 
kidnapping or other act against persons.  Douglas cautioned 
that there as yet no decision has been taken with respect to 
amnesty, nor is there a policy;  these three points are just 
those which have come forward in the context of discussions 
about how best to establish a just and enduring peace. 
 
Ribadu's Troubles "Police Politics" 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶15.  (C)  Douglas commented that the Vice President had been 
present at the National Institute for Policy Strategic 
Studies (NIPSS) graduation from which former Economic and 
Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) Chairman Nuhu Ribadu had 
been excluded.  The actual exclusion took place before the 
Vice President's arrival, but the VP has asked Douglas to 
look into the matter on his behalf.  Ribadu's plight is the 
result of "police politics", Douglas averred, and is not 
driven by the Presidency. 
 
¶16.  (C)  Comment:  The issue of what to do about the 
militants appears to be taking the same slow trajectory as 
other issues related to the Niger Delta.  According to 
Douglas, the commission of crimes against persons, as opposed 
to attacks on pipelines and other oil installations, is being 
considered as the litmus test for distinguishing between 
criminals and militants.  In light of the in camera 
prosecution of Henry Okah for treason, it would appear that 
the government considers the importation and sale of guns 
either to militants or criminals as treasonous.  Sales of 
military weapons by the military to militants or criminals 
are also being handled in camera by courts martial, with 
severe penalties being handed out.  How these distinctions 
will apply to well-known militant commanders is as yet 
unclear.  Although Douglas paints a picture that is, as he 
describes it, "cautiously optimistic", it is clear that he is 
well aware of the many challenges that must be overcome 
before the Niger Delta crisis is resolved. 
BLAIR