VZCZCXRO2221
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1672/01 3211322
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 161322Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2328
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 001672 
 
DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, AF/C 
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: DARFUR'S REBELS REJECT THE SPI AND BASHIR'S PROMISES 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Following the November 12 closing session of the 
Sudan People's Initiative (SPI), Darfur non-signatory rebels 
uniformly rejected President Omar Al-Bashir's announcement of a 
unilateral ceasefire and his proposed development package for 
Darfur.  SLA/Abdul Wahid (SLA/AW) and SLA/Unity field commanders 
claimed that the Government of Sudan (GoS) has already broken the 
ceasefire through ongoing operations and widespread deployment 
throughout Darfur.  JEM contacts emphasized that a meaningful 
ceasefire will only result through negotiations, and said that the 
UN/AU's Chief Mediator has failed so far, creating a "political 
vacuum."  END SUMMARY 
 
JUSTICE AND EQUALITY MOVEMENT 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶2. (SBU) London-based JEM Spokesman Ahmed Hussein told poloff on 
November 13 that he dismisses any unilateral statements made by the 
government in public forums as meaningless. "We've been through this 
time and time again," he said, recalling how the last unconditional 
ceasefire announced by the government before the Sirte talks was 
broken only days later. Hussein emphasized that progress must come 
not through unilateral declarations in the media, but rather at the 
negotiating table. "We need some sort of framework agreement to move 
forward," he said, "but Bassole is not moving."  Clearly frustrated 
with what he viewed as the Joint Chief Mediator's inaction, Hussein 
accused him of putting JEM in a "critical position" of trying to 
respond to a myriad of initiatives from unauthorized and often 
dubious parties. "The Qataris, the Egyptians, the Libyans-none of 
them is mandated to mediate this crisis," he said, while questioning 
the Qataris' capacity and impartiality.  "But at the end of the day, 
if there's a vacuum, you can't force others not to fill it." He 
stated that JEM was seeking to contact Bassole for an update on his 
plans. 
 
¶3.  (U) On November 9, even before the end of the SPI, JEM released 
a press statement on its website (sudanjem.com) downplaying the 
significance of the SPI and emphasizing the need for the 
"conflicting parties" to be the focus of future talks.  The 
statement indirectly references the SPI, saying that JEM welcomes 
the involvement of the people of Darfur in finding a solution, but 
that in other conflict situations, it is typical for only the 
conflicting parties to participate in negotiations.  The statement 
says that JEM rejects negotiations in which dozens of "so-called 
factions and movements" sit alongside JEM and the Government. 
[Note:  Since its May 10, 2008 assault on Omdurman, JEM has argued 
that it stands above other movements and should be recognized as 
such in future negotiations.  End Note.]  The statement goes on to 
say that JEM has not made a decision regarding Qatar and that it is 
open to bilateral discussions with the GoS. (Full text of the 
translated press release is in para 9.) 
 
SLA ABDUL WAHID AL-NUR 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶4.  (SBU) SLM/AW contacts speaking by satellite phone separately 
expressed their distrust of the SPI and President Bashir's 
unilateral ceasefire.  SLA/AW Field Commanders Abdulrahman Gadura 
and Muhammad Terada both told emboffs that they dismiss the SPI as 
only a National Congress Party exercise, excluding both 
non-signatories and the real people of Darfur. Both claimed that the 
GoS has not yet fully stopped its military operations near Jebel 
Marra. Gadura emphasized that all parties of the conflict, not just 
the government, should declare the ceasefire.  Terada, who said he 
was "in transit to a mission," stated that Bashir's development 
program announced at the SPI was inappropriate, exclaiming "How dare 
this government speak of development while the blood [of the people 
of Darfur] is still wet!" 
 
¶5.  (SBU) SLA/AW Northern Field Commander Suliman Marjan also 
thought that discussion of compensation and development is 
premature. "Compensation is a real demand for us but it should only 
come after signing a peace deal with non-signatories," stated 
Marjan.  According to Marjan, the GoS bombed the village of Al-Helif 
on November 12 ("the exact same day as Bashir's so-called 
ceasefire.")  Government helicopters, claimed Marjan, continue to 
fly over SLA/AW areas of control in North Darfur, and "so we know 
that the Government is not serious about this ceasefire." Muhammad 
Abubakr, a SLA/AW student leader based in Khartoum, also expressed 
skepticism about the SPI and President Bashir's promises, saying, 
"The GoS is saying these things but it never fulfills what it 
promises." 
 
SLA UNITY 
- - - - - 
¶6.  (SBU)  SLA/Unity's Abdalla Yahia told emboff on November 13 that 
threatening GoS military deployment and movement has recently 
increased all over Darfur.  Yahia claimed that the Popular Defense 
 
KHARTOUM 00001672  002 OF 003 
 
 
Force has been mobilized, stating, "if the Government is really 
serious, all these movements on the ground should immediately stop." 
 Yahia speculated that the Government is staging a political show 
while "continuing to push its military agenda." Yahia said that 
Bashir's promise of compensation and development is just for "media 
consumption," and that he has no faith in more promises from Bashir. 
 Ali Karbino (one of SLA/Unity's more rogue-like field commanders) 
also released a press statement online saying that he is not 
interested in Bashir's ceasefire, as "our military operations will 
continue all over the region to protect the displaced and 
civilians." Karbino stated that his movement will boycott the Qatari 
initiative because it has not addressed the regional aspect of the 
Darfur conflict. 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
¶7.  (SBU)  SLA/AW's claim that the GoS has already broken the 
ceasefire seems to be true.  However, many field commanders have 
distorted facts on the ground and confused routine GoS and UNAMID 
movements as acts of aggression. The regime has no monopoly on 
duplicity when it comes to military action in Darfur.  Even though 
we question some of the rebels' claims, their skepticism about this 
GoS ceasefire is fully justified, as the GoS has made many such 
promises throughout the conflict and prior to negotiations (most 
recently leading up to Sirte in late 2007.) 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  JEM's pointed criticism of the Joint Mediation Support 
Team (JMST) and Chief Mediator Djibril Bassole is concerning, 
especially as almost all rebel movements now have accused the Chief 
Mediator of neglect, inaction, and indecision.  Although it appears 
as though Bassole is progressing quietly and behind the scenes, 
these perceptions (even if they are incorrect) may derail the peace 
process.  This is unfortunate as the Chief Mediator only appears to 
utilize (and even inform) only one or two key staff members of his 
plans.  There is no reason for the JMST not to conduct daily 
outreach to the all-too important rebel leadership and their field 
commanders.  Even if the Chief Mediator is not personally in touch 
with the rebels on a daily or weekly basis, he can make more use of 
the media to keep them and others informed, assert his authority and 
control of the process, and inject his leadership into the very 
unwieldy Darfur peace process. There is no substitute to spending 
time in the field with the rebel movements, cultivating on the 
ground relationships and knowledge bases, something which none of 
the past or present mediators, special envoys and other "drive by 
international diplomats" seem to want to do. 
 
¶9.  (U)  Begin translated text from sudanjem.com: 
 
PRESS RELEASE 
 
Announcement Clarifying JEM position regarding the Qatari 
Initiative 
 
Print, radio, and television media have reported that the Sudanese 
Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) has refused the Qatari 
Initiative and that it seeks direct negotiations with government of 
Sudan.  Regarding this confusion, the movement would like to clarify 
the following: 
 
(1) JEM has not taken any position, neither positive nor negative 
regarding the Qatari Initiative.  The issue is under review by the 
movement's institutions.  After consultations are completed on this 
issue, the movement will release [its decision on the Qatari 
Initiative.] 
 
(2) The movement has affirmed to the Qatari delegation that it does 
not trust the Arab League under its current leadership, and does not 
accept any initiative of which the Arab League is a part. 
 
(3) The Movement has clarified to the visiting delegation that it is 
happy to hear the opinion of the people of Darfur and that we will 
take the peoples' opinions to the negotiations.  However we do not 
see the possibility of solving the Sudan problem in Darfur through 
conferences where everyone is invited.  The settlement could be 
reached through direct talks between the parties of the conflict 
like peace talks everywhere else. 
 
(4) The movement has not announced at any time that it refused UN 
mediation, the role of neighboring countries, or the international 
community to create peace in Sudan.  However, the movement has 
refused sitting at a table where the government of Sudan is one part 
and at the other end are tens of so-called movements and factions. 
This kind of negotiation would never lead to a fruitful peace 
accepted by the people of Darfur and Sudan. 
 
 
KHARTOUM 00001672  003 OF 003 
 
 
In order to avoid such an ugly situation, the movement would never 
refuse to negotiate with government through its own ways.  The 
Government could [also] negotiate with whomever it likes in 
different parallel talks, so as to not prolong the suffering of our 
people in the IDP and refugee camps. 
 
Our objective is to move people towards unity and to enable them to 
enter peace negotiations under a unilateral negotiation platform and 
through one negotiation team. 
 
Ahmed Hussein Adam 
Media Secretary and the Movement's Spokesman 
London November 9th 2008 
 
FERNANDEZ