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OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1671/01 3211301
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O 161301Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2326
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001671 
 
DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, DRL 
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EFIN KDEM KPKO UNSC SU
SUBJECT: 37th AEC PLENARY:  ELECTIONS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, AND JOINT 
INTEGRATED UNITS 
 
REFS:  A. KHARTOUM 1629 
   ¶B. KHARTOUM 1578 
        ¶C. KHARTOUM 1531 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  At the Assessment and Evaluation Commission's 
(AEC) 37th plenary session on November 4, parties expressed concern 
at the slow pace of preparations for the mandated 2009 national 
elections, especially at the delays in adopting necessary 
legislation and in naming the National Election Commissioners.  The 
meeting commended the efforts of the SPLM and the NCP to negotiate 
an agreement to their dispute over foreign exchange reserves, and 
agreed to maintain a "watching brief" (i.e. monitor) on the issue. 
Parties also discussed support for the Joint Integrated Units 
(JIUs), which lack equipment and training needed to fulfill their 
mission.  END SUMMARY. 
 
CHAIRMAN'S INTRODUCTION 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
¶2.  (SBU) AEC Chairman Plumbly noted that in the past month, CPA 
implementation had been pushed into the background by the Sudan 
People's Initiative (SPI), intended to bring the Darfur conflict to 
an end.  He reported that, unfortunately, there had been no 
significant progress in any of the five crucial areas identified in 
AEC's Mid-Term Evaluation (MTE) (Abyei, border demarcation, 
elections, security issues, and preparations for the 2011 
referendum) since the Evaluation was issued in July.  Ambassador 
Plumbly also noted that the AEC's Juba office was officially 
scheduled to go into operation on November 5, and he introduced the 
new Juba Head of Office, Dr. Rainer Baudendistel. 
 
ELECTIONS 
- - - - - 
¶3.  (SBU) The Coordinator of the Power Sharing Working Group, 
Italian Ambassador Catoni, stated that he is very worried about the 
pace of preparations for national elections, mandated by the CPA for 
2009, which have entered a crucial period.  Members of the National 
Elections Commission (NEC) still have not been appointed, nor has 
additional legislation necessary to conduct the elections -- 
including new security and media laws -- been enacted.  He urged 
that the parties keep in mind the importance of the election 
timetable.  [Note: The timetable is critical not only because the 
CPA mandates elections happen by July 2009, but also because the 
current session of Parliament is due to end on 23 December in 
preparation for elections.  The CPA states that the Parliament must 
ratify the establishment of the NEC and appointment of its members 
by two-thirds majority.  End note.] 
 
¶4.  (SBU) UNMIS Chief Electoral Affairs Officer Ray Kennedy 
reinforced Ambassador Catoni's comments, saying that under the CPA, 
the feasibility of the election schedule should have been reviewed 
no later than July 2008 (six months prior to the third anniversary 
of the CPA's signing.)  The elections will be a complicated process, 
he noted, especially in the South, and before they can take place a 
significant amount of work must be done which cannot be started 
until the NEC is in place. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) CDA Fernandez commented that the United States also is 
concerned by the absence of other election building blocks, notably 
the press and security laws.  He added that there recently has been 
an increase in government interference in what had been a relatively 
free media since the signing of the 2005 CPA (ref. A). This is not 
conducive to creating the proper pre-electoral climate for 
democracy. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) SPLM representative Kosti Manibe reported that the SPLM 
and the NCP have agreed on all National Electoral Commissioners, but 
have yet to identify a Commission Chairman and Deputy Chairman who 
will accept the positions.  These must be independent and respected 
figures, and finding such people is proving difficult, he said.  The 
NCP remarked that the concerns raised by the partners should 
properly be addressed to the government, not to the parties in the 
AEC.   Rather, the AEC could assist by identifying what the problems 
are and who in the government has the responsibility.  He added that 
the AEC also could help by identifying actions that could be taken 
prior to the formation of the NEC.  Ambassador Plumbly concluded the 
discussion by encouraging the parties to remain seized with the 
review date, put the NEC in place, and take all possible prior 
actions. 
 
FOREIGN EXCHANGE DISPUTE 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶7.  (SBU) Ambassador Plumbly reported that he and the AEC 
Coordinators had been briefed on the issues involved in the dispute 
between the GNU and the GoSS over control of foreign exchange (ref. 
B).  He noted that the two sides are continuing to work quietly, 
 
KHARTOUM 00001671  002 OF 002 
 
 
seeking a mutually agreeable solution to the dispute.  CDA Fernandez 
agreed that the parties are handling the dispute in a low-key 
manner, and he urged them to resolve the issue quickly and quietly. 
If not handled carefully, this dispute has the potential to escalate 
into a major crisis, with serious consequences, he said.  Ambassador 
Plumbly concluded that the AEC Chair and the Wealth Sharing Working 
Group should stay in close consultation -- a "watching brief" -- as 
he put it, to monitor  the situation and offer the AEC's assistance 
in resolving the matter, should that become desirable. 
 
JOINT INTEGRATED UNITS/JOINT INTEGRATED POLICE UNIT 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶8.  (SBU) Ambassador Plumbly noted that support for the JIUs was one 
of the five critical issues identified in the MTE, but that his 
recent visit to several JIUs indicated that they are "neither joint 
nor integrated," and that they are both under trained and under 
equipped.  He urged greater support for the JIUs both from the 
government and from donors.  The UK briefed on its mission to Abyei 
the previous week and observed that equipping the JIU/JIPU there 
remains an urgent priority.  The UN reported that so far it has 
received no response to its request to participate in meetings of 
the Joint Defense Board (JDB) at which the JIUs were discussed. 
Ambassador Plumbly noted that the MTE had recommended that UNMIS 
participate at JDB meetings dealing with JIUs, but that even without 
JDB approval, donors still could provide short-term material 
support. 
 
WORKING GROUP UPDATES 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
¶9.  (SBU) Coordinators provided updates on the work of the four AEC 
Working Groups.  The Power Sharing WG Coordinator said that a 
meeting to discuss the census with heads of the Central Bureau of 
Statistics and the South Sudan Center for the Census and Statistical 
Evaluation was planned for November 11.  The Security WG planned a 
trip to Southern Kordofan November 12-13.  The Coordinators for 
Three Areas WG and the Wealth Sharing WG (CDA Fernandez) reported 
that their groups were in the process of completing work plans for 
the coming months, based on the recommendations of the MTE. 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
¶10. (SBU) The 37th Plenary highlighted the lack of progress in key 
areas of CPA implementation, notably election preparations, but also 
support for the JIUs.  Stalled establishment of the NEC is not 
entirely the fault of the NCP and the SPLM.  However, both share 
blame for the refusals by their agreed-upon NEC Chairman (Abel 
Alier) and Deputy Chairman (Abdulla Idris) to take up NEC leadership 
positions due to their doubt that they can oversee credible 
elections within such a limited timeframe (ref. C).  While it is 
likely that the SPLM and the NCP will be able to find replacements 
for Idris and Alier (or talk them into the positions) and establish 
an NEC before Parliament dissolves, it is highly unlikely that the 
security and media laws will be enacted by December 23.  Lack of key 
legislation will negatively affect electoral campaigning and 
political party activity and may cause some opposition parties to 
boycott the electoral process altogether. 
 
FERNANDEZ