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OO RUEHBC RUEHBZ RUEHDE RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHKUK RUEHMA RUEHMR
RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #1651/01 3171512
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 121512Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2295
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 001651 
 
DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG 
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: BASHIR PROMISES CEASE-FIRE, DISARMAMENT, COMPENSATION, 
DEVELOPMENT, AND NEGOTIATIONS WITH REBELS AT CLOSING CEREMONY OF THE 
SUDAN PEOPLE'S INITIATIVE ON DARFUR 
 
REF: A) KHARTOUM 1649 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: At the closing ceremony of the Sudan People's 
Initiative in Khartoum November 12, President Basher stole the show 
from the actual SPI document itself by unilaterally promising an 
"immediate and unconditional" cease-fire, disarmament of militias, 
compensation for IDPs on an individual and a collective basis, 
development projects for Darfur, an increase to the number of states 
in Darfur, and negotiations with rebels to find an urgent political 
solution to the conflict.  There are some major loopholes to the 
commitments - for example Basher said the cease-fire must have an 
effective monitoring mechanism - however Basher also made a 
commitment to empowering UNAMID to carry out its role in keeping 
peace and security.  Notably, Basher did not address the question of 
a possible vice presidential position for someone from Darfur in his 
speech, although the SPI document itself lists this as a possible 
option, to be selected via free and fair election.  Eritrean 
President Afwerki attended and spoke at the ceremony.  UN/AU Chief 
Mediator Bassole spoke and called for an immediate cease-fire, 
negotiation with rebels, and "concrete actions" on the ground.  As 
expected, the SPI document contains a matrix of options for 
resolving the dispute, some of which President Basher responded to 
in his speech.  The key next steps are for UNAMID to coordinate a 
mechanism to monitor the cease-fire, and for Bassole and the 
Qatari's to engage in shuttle diplomacy to encourage rebel 
participation at Doha.  A date for the Doha talks was not announced 
at the SPI ceremony; NCP insiders are hinting at early to 
mid-December but the Qataris and Bassole would be wise to line up 
key rebel participation and the framework for negotiations before 
agreeing to this. End summary. 
 
Basher's Commitments 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The "security core" of President Basher's speech consists 
of an immediate and unconditional cease-fire "provided that an 
effective monitoring mechanism be put into action and observed by 
all parties."  Basher also promises to begin an immediate campaign 
to disarm the militias and restrict the use of weapons by the armed 
forces, to increase police forces to guarantee safe travel and 
secure routes, and to empower UNAMID to carry out its role 
effectively. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The "policies and options core" of Basher's speech lays out 
the basis for a possible solution to the Darfur crisis, if the 
government is willing to make good on these commitments: 
 
--confirmation of commitment to negotiations to reach a peaceful 
solution, as long as the integrity and sovereignty of Sudan are 
respected; 
 
--increasing the number of states in Darfur after negotiating with 
the concerned parties and comparing the proposals within two months 
(this would presumably allow the Fur to have one state where they 
are the majority); 
 
--approving the principle of individual and collective compensation 
provided that authorities conduct a "thorough and precise" inventory 
of the refugees and displaced, taking into account family size and 
the state's ability to pay - 40 million Sudanese pounds (approx $20 
million USD) to be obligated during 2009; 
 
--providing reasonable services in education, health, and water to 
all displaced in rural settings; 
 
--approving an immediate cease-fire which is monitored (this is the 
second time the cease-fire is mentioned), and ceasing negative 
"media campaigns" for a month to create the right conditions for 
negotiations; 
 
--forming a committee from the forum to encourage non-signatory 
movements to take part in peace negotiations (septet provides 
information on the role the NCP has given Minnie Manawa in this 
regard); 
 
¶4. (SBU) President Basher also promised progress on development 
projects including: the completing the western highway with the 704 
million Sudanese-pound loan ($350 million USD) from the Chinese; 
connecting Darfur's three states to the power grid; digging 685 
 
KHARTOUM 00001651  002 OF 003 
 
 
wells in Darfur with funds from the 2009 budget; constructing 139 
primary and secondary schools with funds from the 2009 budget; 
constructing 45 hospitals and clinics in Darfur from the 2009 
budget; rehabilitation of agricultural projects; payment of 73 
million Sudanese pounds for water networks in Nyala, El Fasher, and 
Geneina. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Bashir addressed the question of justice and social peace 
by promising a national fund for paying blood money at a sum of 
100,000 SDG ($50,000, so presumably on an individual basis) funded 
30 percent by the central government, 10 percent by the states, and 
the rest by "indigenous administrations and donors" (presumably 
meaning that the Qataris or other donors will be asked to fund 
this).  Bashir also promised support for tribal reconciliation and 
the resolution of pending disputes, as well as to support local and 
tribal administrations in implementing laws. 
 
¶6. (SBU) In the "foreign affairs core" of his speech, Bashir 
dedicated himself to improving relations with Sudan's neighbors and 
noted that Sudan and Chad have just normalized relations by 
exchanging ambassadors.  Bashir also promised to collaborate with 
the UN and AU to realize peace, and to work with Qatar and the UN/AU 
Chief Mediator to build on the progress made in the SPI.  Bashir 
also recognized the efforts of those who signed the peace agreement 
at Abuja, which he said provided a foundation to realize peace and 
security (a reference to the absent DPA and SLM leader Minni 
Minawi). 
 
Afwerki, Bassole, and Others 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) President Afwerki of Eritrea attended and spoke at the SPI 
closing ceremony, demonstrating the extent to which relations 
continue to solidify between Sudan and Eritrea.  Afwerki said that 
although the SPI comes three years late, he welcomed it as an 
achievement and noted that the Sudan of today is different than the 
Sudan of 20 years ago (presumably arguing that the Bashir regime has 
improved and doesn't deserve the scorn of the international 
community).  He urged that the Sudanese be able to conduct dialogue 
without interference from the international community. 
 
¶7. (SBU) UN/AU Chief Mediator Bassole spoke and urged an immediate 
cease-fire, negotiation with rebels, and "concrete actions" on the 
ground.  Tanzanian President (and current AU Chair) Kikwete's 
representative called for African solutions to African problems, a 
stop to an "irrelevant" ICC indictment of President Bashir and 
declared that Africa does not need outsiders to solve its problems, 
to great applause.  The Sultan of the Fur people, a descendent of 
Ali Dinar, the last ruler of the independent Sultanate of Darfur, 
called for the restoration of the native administration. 
 
SPI Matrix of Solutions 
----------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) As expected, the SPI document contains a matrix of options 
for resolving the Darfur crisis.  Post will send a summary of the 
options in outline form via email as the document is over a hundred 
pages in length.  President Bashir responded to - and went further 
than - most of the recommendations in his speech.  For example, on 
compensation and development President Bashir gave much more 
specificity in his speech.  The key issues of the ceasefire and 
stopping negative media campaigns are also recommended in the SPI 
report.  The SPI recommends that a Vice Presidential position for 
someone from Darfur could be an element of a solution to the Darfur 
conflict, at the President's discretion and decided through an 
election.  President Bashir did not mention this in his speech, 
presumably leaving this for negotiations with the armed movements. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Although the announcement of the cease-fire should be 
welcomed, as should many other positive elements of the President's 
speech, we should note that the devil is in the details and in the 
implementation of the many promises made by the President.  We note 
that the cease-fire appears not to be in effect immediately (despite 
the clear "immediate and unconditional" phrase used by the 
President), as a monitoring mechanism must be negotiated first, 
 
KHARTOUM 00001651  003 OF 003 
 
 
according to President Bashir.  We note that several key rebels 
including JEM/Khalil Ibrahim and and SLA/Unity have already rejected 
the ceasefire.  The key next steps are for UNAMID to coordinate a 
mechanism to monitor the cease-fire, and for Bassole and the Qataris 
to engage in shuttle diplomacy to encourage rebel participation at 
Doha and to nail down the specifics of a framework for the talks.  A 
date for the Doha talks was not announced at the SPI ceremony.  NCP 
insiders are hinting at early to mid-December but the Qataris and 
Bassole would be wise to line up key rebel participation and the 
framework for negotiations before agreeing to any specific 
timetable.  In summary, there is much to build on from the SPI and 
especially President Bashir's ambitious and forward-leaning speech, 
but there is a tremendous amount of work and ambiguity still - and 
urgent, concrete actions to be taken by the regime and others - for 
any of this to make a real and positive difference on the ground in 
Darfur.  The Khartoum regime has gone farther than ever before - in 
rhetoric - towards addressing the key issues in Darfur but nothing 
has changed - yet. 
 
FERNANDEZ