VZCZCXRO3227
PP RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #3012/01 3230340
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 180340Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6166
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 003012 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS 
NSC FOR JWOOD 
OSD FOR SHIVERS 
CG CJTF-82, POLAD, JICCENT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENT DISCUSSES OPTIONS FOR PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION 
 
REF: A. KABUL 2832 
     ¶B. KABUL 601 
 
¶1. (SBU)  SUMMARY.  Members of Parliament continue to debate 
the timing for next year's presidential election, many of 
them for political motives.  Caught between certain legal 
provisions to hold the election as soon as March and the 
reality of logistical and climate challenges to doing so, MPs 
have proposed a variety of solutions.  Since Lower House 
Speaker Yunus Qanooni allowed the discussion to re-enter 
parliamentary debate last month, MPs have solidified their 
calls for a "legal mechanism" to schedule an agreeable date 
for the election and replace the now-evaporated political 
consensus for a fall 2009 timeframe.  President Karzai and UN 
SRSG Kai Eide recently discussed both constitutional and 
technical problems with the election date, but did not reach 
a conclusion on how to move forward.  This cable discusses 
some of the options MPs have proposed.  None of these options 
provides a clear way out of the disagreement over elections 
timing. 
 
Election Timing Issues Resurfaces 
---------- 
 
¶2.    (SBU)  The Independent Election Commission announced on 
April 9 that presidential and provincial council elections 
would be held in the autumn.  But some MPs have renewed the 
debate.  Many of them are consistent Karzai opponents, but 
nearly all MPs agree that fall elections are unconstitutional 
without some legal provision clearing the way.  Even 
generally pro-Karzai MPs have taken a stand against delaying 
elections until the autumn, framing their position as a 
defense of the Constitution. 
 
¶3. (SBU) As discussed in reftels, Article 61 of the Afghan 
Constitution ends the president's term in May and calls for 
elections 30-60 days beforehand.  The Constitution delegates 
logistical management of the election to the Independent 
Election Commission.  The IEC, international donors, and 
Afghan political leaders reached a consensus in April 2008 
that an election would be held in late 2009, in part by using 
language in Article 33 that "all Afghans have the right to 
elect and be elected" to justify postponing elections until 
the completion of voter registration.  Karzai's political 
opponents, led by Lower House Speaker  Qanooni, believed the 
president's re-election chances would increase the longer he 
stayed in office.  The lack of a written agreement 
memorializing the April consensus allowed them to re-open the 
issue. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Karzai met Kai Eide in early November to discuss the 
issue.  Eide informed Karzai that Supreme Court Chief Justice 
Azimi sided with Qanooni's interpretation of the Constitution 
and urged him to reach out to influential MPs to resolve the 
issue.  We understand Karzai spoke with Qanooni and met with 
Lower House Deputy Speaker Mirwais Yasini (Nangarhar, 
Pashtun). 
 
Five Bad Choices 
---------- 
 
¶5.    (SBU)  There are five solutions in play: 
 
-     Elections by April.   Karzai's strongest critics, such 
as MP Rahman Oghly (Faryab, Uzbek), back elections as soon as 
possible.  The Constitution's Article 61 ends the president's 
term on May 21, 2009.  Elections must precede this date by 
30-60 days.  The fact that the 2004 election and Karzai,s 
inauguration were both delayed is not material to the timing 
of the 2009 election.  To pull off elections by this date, 
voter registration would need to be compressed, and 
significant overlaps in voter registration, candidate 
registration, and campaigning would occur.  IEC staff have 
told MPs this option is logistically not feasible, but the 
IEC's poor relations with Parliament's leadership have kept 
this option alive. 
 
-     Call a Loya Jirga.  Under the Constitution, the 
government can convene a Loya Jirga in times of "supreme 
national interest."  MPs like Abdul Qayum Sajadi (Ghazni, 
Hazara) interpret this to include the debate over elections 
timing.  However, organizing a Loya Jirga presents many 
logistical challenges and constitutional hurdles.  Loya Jirga 
delegates would come from Parliament, provincial councils, 
and district councils, the latter of which have yet to be 
elected.  Because a Loya Jirga sets its own agenda, it could 
 
KABUL 00003012  002 OF 002 
 
 
open up the entire Constitution to amendment.  It is even 
possible delegates would not use the Loya Jirga for setting 
an elections date, but to name a new president in lieu of 
elections.  Supporters for this option include Pashtuns who 
say the security situation in southern and eastern provinces 
is not stable enough to hold an election. 
 
-     Declare a State of Emergency.  The president can 
declare a state of emergency under certain conditions. 
Supporters of this option point to "serious rebellion" and 
"protection of independence" as constitutionally applicable 
scenarios.  A state of emergency -- which requires the 
approval of Parliament if longer than two months -- could 
cover the gap between the end of Karzai's term in May and 
likely elections in September.  According to Article 147, if 
a state of emergency is in place while a presidential term 
expires, the term can be extended for four more months. 
However, most Karzai opponents reject this option, as a 
constitutional state of emergency also gives the president 
the right to transfer some of the powers of the legislature 
to the executive branch. 
 
-     Transitional President.  The Constitution assigns the 
Speaker of the Upper House as the successor in the absence of 
the president and the two vice presidents (whose terms expire 
concurrently with that of the president in May).  Legal 
scholar MP Sayed Alemi Balkhi (Kabul, Hazara) raised this 
option recently, saying his United Front allies would not 
recognize a Karzai presidency that exceeded its 
constitutional term.  However, Upper House Speaker 
Sebghatullah Mojaddedi is in frail health, confined to his 
house, and has been absent from Parliament for much of the 
past several months.  Next in line should Mojaddedi pass on 
the option would be Lower House Speaker Qanooni, the most 
prominent public face of the opposition and runner-up to 
Karzai in 2004.  Karzai's supporters would likely block that 
path. 
 
-     A Sense of the House Resolution.  As a last resort, 
several MPs, including Faizullah Zaki (Jowzjan, Uzbek), have 
said they would support a "sense of the legislature" 
resolution or similar political solution agreeing to a new 
election date.  In conversations with PolOffs, most MPs 
recognize the serious hurdles to holding elections by the 
spring.  Some are also aware of constitutional issues with 
the timing of their own re-elections in 2010, which could 
gain more attention if this issue is not dealt with 
effectively.  Such a resolution would give Parliament a 
mechanism for setting a later date, while allowing the IEC 
and international technical advisors the time needed to 
conduct the elections.  Article 33 of the Constitution may 
offer legal backing to this option. 
 
Waiting for A New Consensus 
---------- 
 
¶6.    (SBU)  Most MPs recognize the challenges of a spring 
election and the importance of holding the most credible, 
participatory election possible.  But the longer the issue 
continues, the harder it will be to resolve. 
WOOD