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C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000516 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2018 
TAGS: FI PGOV
SUBJECT: MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS REFLECT NATIONAL PARTY FORTUNES 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Barbara Barrett for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY.  On October 26 voters went to the polls in 
Finland's 332 municipalities to vote for local council 
elections.  The biggest winners were the National Coalition 
Party (NCP) and the True Finns.  For the first time the NCP, 
the center-right member of the governing coalition, was the 
largest party in the municipal elections.  The other main 
Cabinet member, the Center Party of Prime Minister Vanhanen, 
lost over 2 percentage points, making this the fourth 
election in a row the party saw a drop in support.  The 
largest opposition party, the Social Democrats, having 
already suffered a stinging defeat in 2004, also lost ground 
overall and in the six largest cities.  The results speak to 
the larger fortunes of the parties, given national-level 
issues discussed in the elections, and the campaigning of 
party leaders. The disappointing results make it unlikely 
Vanhanen will lead his party into the next parliamentary 
elections.  In the meantime, pressure within the Center party 
could impact the Cabinet, particularly on increasingly 
politicized issues like Afghanistan and NATO, though the 
bureaucratic Vanhanen may resist party pressures and stress 
Cabinet consensus. END SUMMARY. 
 
Finns vote in quadrennial municipal elections 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Braving terrible weather across Finland, on October 
26 Finns went to the polls in 332 municipalities to vote for 
local councils.  The biggest winners were the National 
Coalition Party (NCP) and the True Finns (TF).  For the first 
time the NCP, the center-right member of the governing 
coalition, was the largest party in the municipal elections, 
garnering 23.4 percent of the vote, up from 21.8 percent in 
¶2004.  The populist TF surged to 5.4 percent from 0.9 
percent.  The other main Cabinet member, the Center Party of 
Prime Minister Vanhanen, lost over 2 percentage points (20.1 
percent from 22.8 percent), making this the fourth election 
in a row the party saw a drop in support.  The largest 
opposition party, the Social Democrats (SDP), having already 
suffered a stinging defeat in 2004, also lost ground overall 
and in the six largest cities.  The Green Party (a smaller 
member of the Cabinet) also did well (8.9 percent), becoming 
the fourth largest party in Finland, passing the Left 
Alliance for the first time ever. 
 
Local elections, national party credibility 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) What drew so many Finns out (61.2 percent of 
eligible voters, up from 58.6 percent in 2004) likely rests 
more on the issues in the campaign than the party 
personalities.  The major issues in the campaign were 
healthcare, care for the elderly, funding for education and 
aid to the economically disadvantaged. Job losses in the 
forestry sector, and the global financial crisis - including 
the media coverage of the crisis' actual and potential impact 
on Finland - may have provided additional national-level 
issues to elections that might otherwise focus on public 
transport and road maintenance. Elections fought on such 
issues mean the results impact the parties at the national 
level; responding to - or perhaps feeding - this perception, 
national party leaders actively campaigned and debated even 
when they themselves were not up for a council seat.  (NOTE: 
In Finland one can hold multiple positions, at the local and 
national level. END NOTE.) 
 
Shifting fortunes within the Cabinet 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) The NCP's strong results follow its good fortune 
from 2007, when it passed the SDP and took a place in the 
coalition government.  While no party stood out in a poll 
question regarding confidence in ability to handle municipal 
issues, the NCP led with 38 percent.  In meeting with 
Polchief, NCP members attributed their results to better 
national organization, a more youthful and dynamic appeal 
through popular igures like FM Stubb and party chair and 
FinanceMinister Jyrki Katainen. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The Center paty lost support in rural areas, its 
traditional ase.  PM Vahanen and Center Party secretary 
Jarmo Korhonen came in for some sharp criticism from within 
the party after the elections.  Critics complained that the 
party had no overall strategy for the elections, but more 
difficult for Vanhanen, many party members see him as a 
better Prime Minister than party leader. Having steered the 
party through multiple elections of diminishing support, 
analysts and government officials expressed doubt to Polchief 
about the likelihood of Vanhanen leading the party into the 
next parliamentary elections.  Vanhanen has publicly ruled 
out resigning the party leadership in advance of the next 
party congress in 2010. 
 
¶6. (C) The impact of the local elections on the Cabinet is 
uncertain.  FM Stubb's senior advisor (and NCP member) Jori 
Arvonen observed to Polchief that the Center party is split 
into two wings, one more outward-looking and progressive and 
the other more inward-looking and traditionalist.  Within the 
party Vanhanen is considerd to be from the former, and after 
this election his support within the latter will likely thin. 
 This, Arvonen said, might create pressure for Vanhanen to 
break from other coalition members on policy issues more 
associated with other parties, e.g., Afghanistan, which is 
largely associated with the NCP.  However, another NCP 
official pointed to the opinion held by many within the 
Center Party that Vanhanen is a better PM than party chair; 
the NCP member thought the bureaucratic Vanhanen would be 
likely to give more weight to consensus within the Cabinet on 
policy issues than in shoring up support within the Center 
party through those same issues. 
 
SDP support continues to drop 
----------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The opposition SDP also lost support from a 
traditional stronghold, big cities, where it saw significant 
losses in Helsinki, Espoo and Vantaa. The SDP is an aging 
party that has had difficulty in appealing to a younger 
generation, a trend that may have contributed to reported SDP 
difficulties in fielding candidates for the elections.  On 
the question of which party enjoys the most public confidence 
in dealing with municipal issues, the SDP ranked highest 
among middle aged to elderly voters.  Jutta Urpilainen, the 
party chair, put the best spin on the disappointing result, 
noting that the party came out ahead of the Center Party 
(given that some polls forecast more dire results).  A second 
place result may well help Urpilainen, who came into the job 
only six months before the election. 
 
Populists on the rise? 
---------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) True Finns party leader, Timo Soini, was the biggest 
vote-getter in the city of Espoo, and was the second biggest 
vote-getter in all of Finland.  The party likely drew votes 
from both SDP and the Center Party, perhaps indicating a 
widening of True Finn support beyond Soini's base (or at 
least a thinning of SDP and Center support in those areas). 
The media often describes the party as populist and 
anti-immigrant.  Likely responding to this characterization 
and the succes of the Truee Finns, after the election, PM 
Vanhanen reportedly said he hoped Finland would not see such 
a political movement in Finland, noting that immigration is 
part of Finland's future. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) The municipal elections do not have a direct impact 
on the Cabinet, which remains the same now as before the 
elections.  However, the change in fortunes of the parties 
may have an impact on the functioning of the Cabinet. The 
Center Party will likely not replace a party chair who is 
also Prime Minister, but dissatisfaction with Vanhanen is 
significant.  Vanhanen seems unlikely to pursue policies in 
order to shore up support in his party; however, pressures 
could grow and eventually impact issues that are increasingly 
politicized, like Afghanistan and NATO.  END COMMENT. 
 
BARRETT