VZCZCXRO8229
RR RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDJ #0885/01 3161503
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 111503Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9679
INFO RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 000885 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND AF/EPS 
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON PHUM SOCI SENV KCOR KMCA KWMN DJ
SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI ON FY09 MCA SCORES: THE BALL'S IN OUR COURT 
 
REF: A. STATE 111916 
 ¶B. DJIBOUTI 684 
 
DJIBOUTI 00000885  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY. In delivering advance copies of Djibouti's FY2009 
Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) Scorecard to GODJ officials (per 
reftel), Post welcomed Djibouti's Presidential-level commitment to 
improving indicator performance.  In light of Djibouti's slight 
backsliding in FY2009 scores, Post also urged the GODJ to sustain 
its efforts to bolster performance--both through improved policy and 
programs, and through better recordkeeping and communication with 
indicator institutions.  Although GODJ officials were disappointed 
with Djibouti's lackluster scorecard, including setbacks in three 
previously positive indicator areas (Land Rights and Access, Primary 
Education Expenditures, and Fiscal Policy), all interlocutors agreed 
that it was now Djibouti's responsibility to address remaining 
weaknesses.  In particular, while several GODJ officials complained 
that indicator institutions were using incorrect or outdated 
statistics, all agreed that it was the GODJ's challenge to provide 
timely information.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------ 
PRESIDENCY: WILL MAINTAIN ENGAGEMENT 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) According to multiple sources, President Guelleh has taken 
an active personal interest in improving Djibouti's MCA scores.  OnQ 
November 5, PolOff delivered an advance copy of Djibouti's scorecard 
to Mr. Meraneh Daher, Advisor to the Presidency on International 
ReQtions.  Daher confirmed that President Guelleh remained "100% 
behind MCA efforts," and reported that an informal inter-ministerial 
committee on MCA, comprising Secretaries-General from all relevant 
Ministries, had been established under the aegis of the Presidency 
and was conferring regularly. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Daher was "disappointed" with Djibouti's FY2009 scores, and 
predicted that senior GODJ principals would also be disappointed. 
However, Daher said that he hoped for improvements in FY2010, 
especially since U.S. law firm Foley Hoag LLC--under contract to 
advise the GODJ on improving MCA scores--had reportedly advised that 
there could be a significant time lag between when the GODJ provided 
new information to indicator institutions, and when any subsequent 
improvements showed up in the scores. Daher confirmed that the GODJ 
continued to work with Foley Hoag, and said that the firm might make 
another field visit to Djibouti. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Daher was especially dismayed at Djibouti's lack of 
progress in the "Investing in People" categories, citing the GODJ's 
recent heavy emphasis on health, education, and poverty reduction 
programs.  Daher said he feared that some of Djibouti's poor scores 
might be due to gaps in data and other statistical problems.  In 
particular, he cited widespread use by indicator institutions of 
inaccurate and likely too-high population estimates.  (NOTE. 
Djibouti's last census data derive from a 1983 study, never 
officially published.  A long awaited new census is currently 
underway, and preliminary results are anticipated in early 2009. 
END NOTE.)  Daher also acknowledged that Djibouti had probably not 
provided updated statistics to UNESCO promptly, and said that the 
GODJ did not have a strong tradition of close collaboration with 
UNESCO, which has a very small in-country presence.  Daher suggested 
that the GODJ might make an extra effort to invite the UNESCO 
Representative resident in Addis Ababa, or other UNESCO officials, 
to visit Djibouti, and perhaps to provide some training on 
procedures for submitting data to UNESCO. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Daher reported that as part of ongoing outreach to 
indicator institutions, the GODJ had invited a Freedom House 
representative to visit Djibouti.  He said that the November 17-19 
visit would include governmental and civil society meetings, and was 
primarily aimed at gauging the feasibility of holding a Freedom 
House "Dialogue on Freedom" in Djibouti.  Daher said that the GODJ 
had already offered to fund the $25,000 cost of this program, but 
that Freedom House's internal rules prevented acceptance of 
government financing.  (NOTE.  Freedom House representatives have 
contacted Post, and are scheduled to meet with EmbOffs during their 
Djibouti visit.  END NOTE.) 
 
---------------------- 
FINANCE AND EDUCATION: 
GODJ MUST COMMUNICATE 
---------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) PolOff delivered a copy of the advance scorecard November 3 
to Ministry of Finance MCA Coordinator Houssein Ahmed Youssouf. 
Youssouf echoed Daher's disappointment about the scores.  He also 
agreed that that Djibouti could do better in compiling accurate and 
 
DJIBOUTI 00000885  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
timely data, and in communicating those data to international 
organizations such as UNESCO.  At the same time, he emphasized that 
the responsibility for outdated or insufficient data belonged solely 
to the "government of Djibouti, and not to the MCC or international 
organizations."  He volunteered, for example, that the Directorate 
of Budget could improve its procedures and transparency, and that 
the GODJ should invite UNESCO officials for a working visit. 
 
¶7. (U) Ministry of Education Secretary-General Fathi Ahmed Chamsan 
was likewise disappointed with the advance copy of the scorecard, 
delivered November 6.  Chamsan was especially unhappy at Djibouti's 
slide backwards in "Primary Education Expenditures," and at the lack 
of progress in "Girls' Primary Education Completion."  He agreed 
that Djibouti needed to improve communication with UNESCO and with 
the UN in general.  His team especially complained that many UN 
agencies were using an inaccurate baseline population estimate, 
based on projections that did not account for recent reductions in 
population growth rates.  Chamsan said he worried that this 
"inflated" baseline "denominator" was masking Djibouti's progress in 
areas such as "Girls' Primary Education Completion."  Nevertheless, 
Chamsan said it was now up to the GODJ to improve performance and 
communication, saying "the ball is in our court." 
 
¶8. (U) COMMENT. While Djibouti's FY2009 scores are somewhat 
disheartening, the GODJ remains committed, at the highest levels, to 
making progress in MCA indicator areas.  That key GODJ officials 
consistently took responsibility for addressing deficits is also 
encouraging.  In ongoing conversations with host country 
interlocutors, Post will continue to urge the GODJ to maintain MCA 
momentum--through better record-keeping and communication, and 
through concrete programs and policy reform.  END COMMENT. 
 
SWAN