VZCZCXRO3817
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0678/01 3101644
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 051644Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3126
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000678 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ASEC PGOV ELAB GV
SUBJECT: GOG NEGOTIATING WITH LABOR UNIONS TO END CIVIL 
PROTESTS 
 
REF: A. CONAKRY 0663 
     ¶B. CONAKRY 0668 
     ¶C. CONAKRY 0670 
     ¶D. CONAKRY 0675 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  Several ministers and members of the 
National Assembly met with union leaders last night in an 
attempt to negotiate an end to the civil disturbances that 
have crippled the capital since November 2.  Negotiations are 
expected to continue today.  The union leaders are willing to 
talk, but have emphasized that they are in no way connected 
to the protestors.  Both GoG and union contacts have 
acknowledged that there is very little room to negotiate the 
fixed fuel price, raising questions about what both parties 
realistically expect to achieve.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Over a national broadcast yesterday evening, the 
Minister of Communication encouraged Guineans to remain calm, 
assuring citizens that the GoG has already started 
negotiating with the national labor unions in order to 
resolve the current crisis, which is related to a government 
fixed fuel price (reftels). 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Dr. Ibrahima Fofana, co-chair of the 
unions-intersyndicale, confirmed that union leaders had met 
with GoG officials yesterday night, including the ministers 
of security, commerce, finance, national reconciliation, 
justice, and cooperation.  The President of the National 
Assembly, Aboubacar Sompare, and a number of National 
Assembly deputies also participated.  A local internet news 
site (guineenews.org) reported that Sompare refused to let 
members of the press cover the meeting.  Dr. Fofana told Pol 
LES that the meeting is expected to continue today. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) According to the Secretary General of the Ministry 
of Commerce, the GoG is not actually negotiating the price of 
fuel, but rather, attempting to explain the GoG's position to 
the labor unions.  Contact told Econ LES that the population 
does not understand the fact that the Guinean Government 
simply cannot afford to support a large fuel subsidy.  He 
said that the GoG is trying to explain the facts. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Dr. Fofana emphasized that the labor unions did not 
organize the current protests, and that they are not 
supporting the protestors.  However, he told Pol LES that the 
unions want to help resolve the issue.  (COMMENT.  The unions 
were opposed to the initial price change in April and have 
been pressuring the government to bring the price back down. 
END COMMENT). 
 
¶6.  (SBU) According to Dr. Fofana, the unions plan to make an 
official recommendation to the government during today's 
meeting, but he could not specify what that recommendation 
might be.  He noted that union members across the country are 
demanding lower fuel prices and have indicated to union 
leaders that they will not accept the current price of 5,500 
GnF per liter.  However, Dr. Fofana noted that he had 
contacted union leaders in neighboring Senegal, Mali, and 
Cote d'Ivoire and discovered that Guinea's gas is still the 
cheapest in the region, even at the 5,500 GnF mark.  He 
claimed that local inflation and reduced purchasing power 
make the price untenable in Guinea.  Still, Dr. Fofana 
acknowledged that the unions do not have much bargaining room 
with the government since the price is already relatively 
low. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) A high-level contact at the Ministry of Defense 
told DATT that the situation may be more complex than it 
appears.  He said that the fuel companies, gas stations 
located up country, and fuel transporters are subtly 
interfering in the negotiations, and possibly encouraging the 
demonstrations.  According to contact, these parties are 
trying to force the government to push the price of fuel even 
lower so that they can reap big profits when they sell 
Guinea's much cheaper fuel at higher prices in neighboring 
countries.  (COMMENT.  Before the GoG reduced the fuel 
subsidy in April, raising the price from 4,300 GnF to 7,000 
GnF, significant quantities of fuel were reportedly being 
smuggled out of the country.  After the price increase, 
demand for fuel immediately dropped by 30%.  Before the price 
increase, the town of Siguiri, a town of 50,000 residents 
located on Guinea's border with Mali, was consuming as much 
fuel as Conakry, a city of 2 million, suggesting significant 
smuggling activity.  END COMMENT). 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The Ministry of Defense contact also noted that 
there are several fuel supply ships waiting offshore at the 
port of Conakry, but that the ships are likely going to 
 
CONAKRY 00000678  002 OF 002 
 
 
depart without offloading their cargo.  Contact said that the 
port has a limited capacity to store fuel, and the lack of 
movement of fuel over the past few days means that the GoG 
does not have anywhere to put the new shipment.  In addition, 
contact said that Guinea's fuel suppliers are hesitant to 
offload because they are not confident that the GoG will 
actually be able to pay for what they have ordered. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The fact that the GoG is negotiating with the 
unions is interesting in that the unions are claiming that 
they are not directly involved in the actual protests.  Since 
no one has emerged as an interlocutor who can speak on behalf 
of the protestors, the GoG may simply be looking for someone 
with whom they can "negotiate."  At the same time, the 
government does not have any room to negotiate.  Economic 
contacts are already questioning whether the GoG can continue 
to support the subsidy at the current price of 5,500 GnF, and 
have emphasized that pushing the price any lower will 
essentially break the bank.  The GoG made similar statements 
about funds for paying the military bonuses during the May 
military mutiny, but then quickly came up with the money as 
the situation deteriorated.  Econ LES commented that the 
government may just be posturing, i.e. trying to look like it 
is responding without any expectation of actually doing 
something.  END COMMENT. 
RASPOLIC