VZCZCXRO4548
RR RUEHAST RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD RUEHTM
DE RUEHBR #1462/01 3111201
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 061201Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2814
INFO RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 3014
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 6829
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 8656
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BRASILIA 001462 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR OES/PCI - L.SPERLING 
DEPT FOR OES/ENCR - C.KARR-COLQUE 
DEPT FOR OES/EGC - D.NELSON AND T.TALLEY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV ENRG EAGR KGHG ECON EFIN BR
SUBJECT:  BRAZIL'S NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE PLAN - NON-BINDING, 
NON-AMBITIOUS COMPENDIUM OF PROGRAMS 
 
REF:  (A) BRASILIA 1559, (B) BRASILIA 750 
 
BRASILIA 00001462  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1.  (U) THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED AND NOT FOR 
INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  The Government of Brazil (GOB) has released its 
draft National Plan for Climate Change, which it intends to submit 
at the Poznan UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 
conference in December.  The Plan emphasizes that Brazil and other 
developing countries have no obligations under the UNFCCC to take on 
quantitative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets. In 
fact, the Plan asserts that the UNFCCC envisions  developing 
countries' share of emissions increasing as their economies grow. 
The draft Plan in large part is a compendium of ongoing or already 
announced programs and activities that have some impact on 
emissions.  The Plan notes that 75% of Brazil's GHG emissions came 
from land use change, namely, deforestation.  It calls for a 
sustained reduction in the deforestation rate with the aim of having 
zero "illegal" deforestation.  Further, the GOB intends to eliminate 
the net loss of the area of forest coverage in Brazil by 2015 
through reforestation and tree plantations.  Other measures include 
building more hydroelectric power plants, increasing use of 
renewable energy, and improving energy efficiency. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) COMMENT.  There is a definite split between Environment 
Minister Carlos Minc, who told the press that he would like the GOB 
to change the position reflected in the Plan and take on a 
quantitative GHG emissions reduction target (he suggests 10% to 20% 
by 2020), and the Ministry of External Relations (MRE), which 
insists that there will be no changes, no agreeing to targets.  The 
MRE holds the reins on setting the GOB's negotiating policy at the 
UNFCCC and so it is unlikely that the GOB will shift its position 
prior to Poznan.  Still, Minister Minc is a powerful force with 
friends in the President's Office.  In the mid- to long-term it is 
conceivable that he could succeed in causing a change in the GOB's 
position on this key point.  END COMMENT AND SUMMARY. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) On October 31, the period for public comment on the draft 
154-page National Plan for Climate Change (the "Plan") expired.  The 
Government of Brazil (GOB) had unveiled the draft Plan on September 
30, with the aim "to incentivize the development of actions by 
Brazil that are collaborative with world effort to combat the 
problem [of climate change] and to create internal conditions to 
deal with its consequences."  The Plan was developed over the last 
12 months by the Interministerial Committee on Climate Change, 
consisting of 16 federal ministries and agencies, the President's 
Office and the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change.  That forum 
includes representatives of the national and state government, 
business, civil society, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and 
academia.  The GOB intends to release the Plan at the Poznan Climate 
Change Conference in December 2008.  (A synopsis of the Plan has 
been provided to OES/EGC.) 
 
¶5.  (SBU) COMMENT.  The public comments to the draft Plan are 
unlikely to produce any significant changes.  The GOB had been 
consulting with stakeholders throughout the year-long preparation 
process, and so already took into account differing views.  The 
comments ranged from the technical (calling for greater monitoring 
of deforestation), to the inapposite (expressing concern over use of 
plastic bags), to the skeptical (questioning the link between human 
activities and global warming).  END COMMENT. 
 
NO QUANTITATIVE GOALS ON GHG EMISSIONS REDUCTION 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The Plan repeatedly stresses that Brazil and other 
non-Annex I countries (i.e., developing countries) to the UN 
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have no obligation 
to accept quantitative commitments to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) 
emissions.  The developed countries listed in Annex I to the UNFCCC 
do have such a requirement since, as the Plan explains, they are 
responsible for the historic emissions that have led to such a high 
level of GHG in the atmosphere. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The developing countries have "common, but differentiated, 
responsibilities" under the UNFCCC; whereas the Annex I countries 
are required to provide financial assistance and technology transfer 
to help them take steps to mitigate GHG emissions and to adapt to 
climate change.  The Plan stresses that the UNFCCC recognizes that 
the share of GHG emission by developing countries will grow as their 
economies expand to meet social and economic needs.  Developing 
 
BRASILIA 00001462  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
countries have limited obligations under the UNFCCC:  to complete 
national inventories of GHG emissions; formulate national programs 
on mitigation and adaptation; and promote sustainable management of 
carbon sinks and carbon reserves. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) NOTE.  Environment Minister Carlos Minc on October 22 
suggested that the GOB change its position, which is embedded in the 
Plan, to oppose developing countries accepting binding quantitative 
obligations to reduce GHG emissions.  Minc called for Brazil to 
accept a GHG emissions reduction target of 10% to 20% by 2020.  The 
Ministry of External Relations (MRE), which has the lead on 
international climate change negotiations for Brazil, emphatically 
rejected the suggestion that it would change its position against 
accepting mandatory GHG emissions obligations.  MRE's Special 
Ambassador for Climate Change Sergio Barbosa Serra underscored this 
point with Science Counselor.  He also suggested that Minister Minc 
might have been "misquoted" in the press.  Further, senior 
negotiator Thelma Krug, formerly of the Environment Ministry and now 
Director of International Relations at the National Institute for 
Space Research (INPE), added that Minc likes to talk with the press 
without consulting with other agencies. END NOTE. 
 
OVERALL GOALS AND SECTORAL MEASURES 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The overall objective of the Plan is "to identify, plan 
and coordinate the actions and measures that can be undertaken to 
mitigate [GHG] generated in Brazil, as well as those necessary for 
the adaption of society to the impacts that derive from [GHG]."  In 
that vein, the GOB intends to pursue the following six principles: 
 
  (A) To promote increased efficiency in the productive sectors 
constantly looking for better practices; 
 
  (B) To seek to maintain a high-level of renewable energy in the 
electric matrix, preserving Brazil's outstanding image that it has 
occupied in the international scene; 
 
  (C) To promote the sustainable increase of the use of biofuels in 
the national transport matrix and work to structure a sustainable 
biofuels international market; 
 
  (D) To look for a sustained reduction in the deforestation rate, 
in its average four-year rate, in all the biomes in Brazil, until 
they reach zero illegal deforestation; 
 
  (E) To eliminate the net loss of the area of forest coverage in 
Brazil by 2015 through reforestation and tree plantations; and 
 
  (F) To seek to identify the environmental impacts resulting from 
climate change and to promote the development of scientific research 
in order to be able to outline a strategy that minimizes the 
socio-economic costs of adaptation for Brazil. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) The GOB has long focused almost exclusively on mitigation 
of GHG emissions.  In the draft Plan, the GOB seeks technologies 
that will reduce GHG emissions per unit of production or that 
increase carbon sinks.  The Plan calls for the following 
technologies and practices in the sectors indicated below: 
 
- Forest Sector - Reduce the rate of deforestation, stimulate the 
sustainable management of forests, reforest degraded lands, and use 
forest products obtained in sustainable manner to generate energy. 
 
- Energy Sector - Improve efficiency of supply and distribution of 
energy, replace carbon intensive energy generation with less 
intensive or with renewable means, and capture and storage of 
carbon. 
 
- Transport Sector - Develop and use more efficient vehicles, use 
more railways and mass transportation, and improve land planning and 
transportation planning. 
 
- Building Sector - Use more efficient equipment, use solar energy, 
and utilize integrated planning to increase efficiency. 
 
- Industrial Sector - Employ more efficient machinery and equipment, 
use more recycling, improve control of GHG emissions, and promote 
capture and storage of GHG. 
 
- Agriculture Sector - Seek to increase the storage of carbon in the 
 
BRASILIA 00001462  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
soil, recover degraded areas, promote more intensive cattle 
production (reducing the need for pasture land per head), and 
improve crops and fertilizers to reduce CH4 (methane) and N2O 
emissions. 
 
- Waste Sector- Capture methane from landfills, and promote 
recycling. 
 
DEFORESTATION 
 
¶11.  (SBU) The draft Plan notes that the national inventory of GHG 
emissions for 1994 (the only one ever done) estimated that 75% of 
Brazil's GHG emissions were due to changes in use of land and 
forests, i.e., deforestation The Plan calls for eliminating 
"illegal" deforestation and by 2015 preventing further net loss of 
the area of forest coverage through reforestation and tree 
plantations.  The Plan relies in large part on the Plan of Action to 
Prevent and Control Deforestation in the Amazon (PPCDAM) and Amazon 
Sustainable Plan (REFTEL B).  The PPCDAM emphasizes land title 
registry, improving monitoring and control, and promoting 
sustainable development in the Amazon region. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Other forest measures include promoting the use of tree 
plantations (mainly eucalyptus and pine) and reforestation on 
degraded and abandoned lands.  The Plan envisions using the tree 
plantations to produce a sufficiently large volume of charcoal on a 
sustainable basis, that the large pig iron industry can substitute 
it for coal.  This would reduce GHG emissions.  The GOB plans to 
complete a national forest inventory by 2013, which should indicate 
the composition of the forests and the volume of carbon contained 
there.  Further, the GOB intends to put up to four million hectares 
of land (or 2% of public forests) in long term concessions for 
sustainable use.  Also, the GOB supported extending to July 2009 a 
moratorium on cultivating soybean on deforested areas of the Amazon. 
 Similarly, the GOB in July 2008 concluded an agreement with the 
wood industry in the critical states of Para and Sao Paulo to 
promote the use of certified wood. 
 
BIOFUELS AND ENERGY 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Brazil has one of the cleanest energy matrices in the 
world, with 46% coming from renewable sources compared with the 
world average of 12% and the OECD average of 6%.  In 2007, nearly 
90% of Brazil's electricity came from hydroelectric power plants or 
biomass.  In 2008, ethanol surpassed gasoline has the dominant fuel 
type for automobiles.  The Plan refers to the 2007-2016 Plan for 
Energy Expansion, which calls for adding 34,460MW of capacity in new 
hydroelectric plants.  Also, the GOB expects to promote energy from 
wind and solar sources and even increase nuclear energy capacity by 
8,000MW by 2030. 
 
¶14.  (SBU) The GOB had no new domestic policies for promoting use of 
ethanol.  Still, it envisions that production will increase from 
25.6 billion liters in 2008 to 53.2 billion liters in 2017, and 
exports will double from 4.2 billion liters in 2008 to 8 billion 
liters in 2017.  Biodiesel is anticipated to increase from 10.5 
billion liters in 2008 to 14.3 billion liters in 2017, depending on 
demand.  Since July 2008, the GOB has imposed a requirement to use a 
3% biodiesel blend.  This mandate will go up to 5% biodiesel in 
¶2010.  The GOB reiterated its intention to develop second generation 
biofuels, and it highlighted its cooperation with the United States 
in this research effort.  (NOTE: Brazilian environmental NGOs have 
pointed out the inconsistency in setting fixed biodiesel blend 
targets, which can have an indirect consequence of encouraging 
clearing forests to grow biodiesel, while keeping off the table 
targets on deforestation rates.  END NOTE.) 
 
FUNDING 
 
¶15.  (SBU) The Plan highlighted three sources of funding for the 
activities embodied in the document.  First, the Clean Development 
Mechanism (CDM) is already a well-developed tool for Brazil.  As of 
August 2008, Brazil had 8% of all CDM projects worldwide, which 
account for about 6% of CO2 equivalent reductions under the CDM. 
Second, the National Amazon Fund (REFTEL A) provides a source of 
funding for conservation in the Amazon and promoting sustainable 
development in the region.  Third, the GOB has submitted a proposal 
to Congress to create a National Climate Change Fund to promote 
mitigation efforts.  That fund would receive a share of the revenues 
the GOB obtains from its oil production.  NOTE:  It is too early to 
 
BRASILIA 00001462  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
say if, when, and in what form this proposed fund will be approved 
by the Brazilian Congress.  The matter could take years to come out 
of Congress.  END NOTE. 
 
NEXT STEPS 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Environment Ministry's Secretariat for Climate Change, 
Director Sergia Oliveira, told Science Counselor that the GOB plans 
to rollout the Plan at the Poznan UNFCCC conference in December 
¶2008.  She explained that the GOB intends in the future to do an 
analysis of the costs and GHG reduction benefits associated with the 
plan if fully implemented.  Further, the GOB is working on a second 
national inventory of GHG emissions to cover the period 1990 to 
2000, with estimates for the period 2001-2005. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶17.  (SBU) The Plan is an exhaustive compendium of the various 
programs and activities that the GOB has in place or is considering 
that could affect GHG emissions.  It is disappointing that there is 
little new coming out of the Plan, other than possibly the goal to 
stabilize forest coverage at 2015 levels.  Nonetheless, there may be 
signs of interest in a more ambitious approach as reflected in 
Environment Minister Minc's call for taking on a quantitative GHG 
emissions reduction target.  While the Ministry of External 
Relations has played the dominant role in climate change 
negotiations, Minc is a welcome domestic voice for reconsidering 
that stance.  END COMMENT. 
 
SOBEL