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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 001996 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/SE, EUR/PD, NEA/PD, DRL 
JCS PASS J-5/CDR S. WRIGHT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR TU
SUBJECT: ANKARA MEDIA REACTION REPORT 
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 18, 2008 
 
In Today's Papers 
 
The U.S. and Iraq Reach an Agreement, But How Will This Affect 
Turkey? (NTV) 
Media outlets note that the SOFA agreement between the U.S. and Iraq 
transfers control of Iraqi airspace from the U.S. to Iraq in January 
2009, which media predicts will have a negative effect on Turkey's 
ability to conduct cross-border operations in pursuit of the PKK in 
northern Iraq.  Leftist-nationalist Cumhuriyet reports in "The 
Question Mark in SOFA," that "Ankara does not want a U.S. withdrawal 
from Iraq until the problem of armed militants is resolved." 
Islamist-oriented Yeni Safak reports in "From Now On, Talabani Will 
Approve Cross-Border Operations," that Iraqi President Jalal 
Talabani is likely to chime in on future Turkish requests to utilize 
Iraqi airspace against PKK installations in northern Iraq. 
Islamist-oriented Zaman reports, "Iraqi National Dialogue Minister 
Akrem al-Hakim will come to Ankara in order to explain what the SOFA 
will mean to relations between Baghdad and Ankara."  NTV points out 
that a withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq will likely "require the 
use of Incirlik Air Force Base and the use of Turkish ports," while 
mainstream Hurriyet emphasizes that Ankara "may use Incirlik as a 
trump card in case the Obama administration supports the Armenian 
Genocide Resolution." 
 
Editorial Commentary on SOFA 
 
Oktay Eksi wrote in mainstream Hurriyet: "One of the direct impacts 
of the SOFA is that Turkey will have to seek Iraq's permission, i.e. 
Kurdish Regional Government President Massoud Barzani's permission, 
to conduct an air operation against the PKK.  In reality, this means 
Turkey will not be able to counter security threats coming from its 
neighbor.   Moreover, a complete withdrawal of American forces from 
Iraq by the end of 2011 does not necessarily mean that Turkey will 
have to deal only with Iraq and Barzani.  There is also the 
possibility the U.S. will move its bases to northern Iraq and we 
will end up faced with a new reality." 
 
Sami Kohen asks in mainstream Milliyet: "Will the Iraqi military be 
able to establish peace and security? Obviously, it will not be very 
easy to establish internal peace and security.  There is also the 
possibility that the withdrawal will be accelerated after Obama 
takes over presidency in January.  During this new era Turkey can 
contribute to the re-construction of Iraq.  Will the U.S. ask Turkey 
to use its territory for the troop transfer?  There is no sign of 
such a request but even if there is, I am sure Turkey will not mind 
being open to such a request." 
 
Mustafa Balbay in leftist-nationalist Cumhuriyet notes: "If the 
Iraqi government is fully in control by 2011, the U.S. will set up 
military bases with significant numbers of troops in order to 
complete the withdrawal.  In the withdrawal process, Barzani's 
strategy is clear:  he thinks the U.S. cannot do anything without 
the Kurds, and a withdrawal will only magnify the Kurds' privileged 
position.  It wouldn't be a surprise if the Iraqi government decides 
in 2011 that the U.S. should not leave Iraq." 
 
Tehran Gives a Green Light to Erdogan's Offer to Mediate 
Media outlets report positively on Iranian Foreign Ministry 
Spokesperson Hasan Kaskavi's response to Prime Minister Erdogan's 
offer to mediate between the U.S. and Iran.  In "A Green Light from 
Tehran," mainstream Milliyet reports Iran responded positively to 
suggestions of Turkish mediation between the U.S. and Iran, "During 
a press conference yesterday, Kaskavi welcomed Prime Minister 
Erdogan's offer - stated first to the New York Times  last week - to 
mediate between the U.S. and Iran."  In "We Are Open to Turkey's 
Mediation," liberal Radikal reports, "Tehran looks warmly at 
Erdogan's offer to mediate between the U.S. and Iran."  Leftist 
Taraf carries the headline, "Tehran: We Won't Stop Erdogan," in his 
bid to mediate, but the article points out Kaskavi emphasized, 
"There are profound disagreements between the U.S. and Iran." 
 
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Islamist-oriented Zaman reports in "A Green Light from Tehran to 
Erdogan Regarding Mediation with the U.S.," that Kaskavi told 
reporters, "For the past 30 years, the U.S. has spoken negatively 
about Iran.  Now we will see if Obama's promises of change will ring 
true regarding U.S. policy toward Iran." 
 
IMF-Turkey Close to Signing Agreement 
Hurriyet, Milliyet, Radikal, Referans and others report the IMF and 
Turkey are likely to sign a 'precautionary' standby agreement. 
Mainstream Milliyet reports Turkey's Treasury Undersecretariat and 
the IMF have been in talks since August, and a deal could take 
effect in January.  Turkey and the IMF are discussing a package of 
loans that total USD 10 billion.  Milliyet notes there are reports 
the AKP government is delaying the talks with the IMF to avoid an 
IMF review inspection in March when Turkey will hold municipality 
elections.  Milliyet says the disagreements between the IMF and 
Turkey revolved around public spending, municipality funds, primary 
surplus and projected income for 2009. 
 
 
In a cartoon from today's mainstream Sabah, a fire fighting crew is 
headed out to fight fires and they come to a fork in the road with 
one road going to the fires in Los Angeles, and the other headed 
toward Wall Street.  The driver asks "Which way should we go?" and 
his coworker says "It doesn't make a difference." 
 
 
Unemployment Rate Grows in Turkey 
Media outlets note that Turkey's unemployment rate for August 2008 
increased by 9.8 percent in comparison to the same month in 2007. 
The number of unemployed workers increased 207,000 to a total of 2.4 
million unemployed.  Urban unemployment is estimated to be 12 
percent, while rural unemployment is estimated at 6.3 percent. 
Papers say these figures do not cover 797,000 temporary workers and 
another 1.7 million who have abandoned their hopes for finding work. 
 Leftist-nationalist Cumhuriyet reports that with these figures 
included, the number of unemployed in Turkey actually reaches 4.96 
million, and the unemployment rate jumps to 18.6 percent.  Business 
daily Referans reports additional job cuts ahead in retail, banking 
and automotive sectors in Turkey. 
 
 
A cartoon from today's Cumhuriyet depicts a Municipality office 
distributing coal from its roof, but the people below are holding a 
sign that says, "It's not coal that we want - we want jobs." 
 
 
Turkey-Iran Sign Natural Gas Agreement 
All papers:  Yesterday, Turkey and Iran signed a memorandum of 
understanding to improve natural gas cooperation.  Turkish Energy 
Minister Hilmi Guler and Iranian Oil Minister Gulam Hussein Nozari 
signed the agreement in Tehran yesterday. Mainstream Sabah reports 
that the MOU allows for Turkish investment in the development of 
three phases in Iran's South Pars offshore gas field. In addition 
Islamist-oriented Zaman reports the agreement envisages a gas 
transfer to Europe via Turkey at a rate of 35 billion cubic meters 
per year, including the joint construction of a 1,200-mile pipeline 
from the southern Iranian port of Assaluyeh to Bazargan in the 
northwest of Iran, which is on the border with Turkey.  Meanwhile, 
all papers report the Iranian Minister Nozari said that technical 
preparations for the implementation of the project could take a 
year. 
France Captures ETA Terrorist 
Media outlets cover France's successful capture ETA leader Garkoitz 
Asiazu Rubina and French plans to extradite him to Spain.  However, 
some note France is tough on ETA terrorists, but not on PKK 
terrorists.  Mainstream Vatan carries the headline, "France Treats 
the ETA Differently than the PKK," pointing out, "France did not 
comply with Turkey's requests to extradite PKK terrorists, but 
France acts differently with Spain."  Islamist-oriented Zaman 
 
ANKARA 00001996  003 OF 004 
 
 
reports, "France, Who Releases PKK Terrorists from Custody, Now 
Hands Over ETA Leader Rubina to Spain."  Meanwhile, mainstream Sabah 
reports the story in a straightforward fashion in "A Huge Blow to 
the Military Wing of ETA." 
 
Obama Will Not Forget His Promises (Taraf) 
News outlets feature U.S. President-elect Barack Obama's interview 
on CBS' 60 Minutes in which he promises to close Guantanamo prison 
and end the use of torture during U.S. interrogations.  Mainstream 
Milliyet carries the headline, "Obama: I Will Close Guantanamo." 
Liberal Radikal reports Obama vowed to "withdraw from Iraq, end Al 
Qaeda in Afghanistan, and close Guantanamo."  Islamist-oriented 
Zaman reports "Obama Backs a Solution to Guantanamo." 
Leftist-nationalist Cumhuriyet carries the headline, "Obama's First 
Declaration: The Torture Base Will Be Closed." 
 
Editorial Commentary on Freedom of Speech/Domestic Political 
Debates 
 
Ergun Babahan wrote in mainstream Sabah:  "Justice Minister Sahin 
erred by permitting the pursuit of a 301 case against author Temel 
Demirer.  The judiciary may think that Sahin's permission to proceed 
with the case indicates the case has a leg to stand on.  However, 
the trial process will definitely be overshadowed by Sahin's 
prejudice, as was expressed in some of his unfortunate public 
comments regarding this case.  Under these conditions, it is 
impossible to provide this author with an impartial trial." 
 
Sahin Alpay in Islamist-oriented Zaman: "The AKP received half of 
the votes in the last general elections, but the ruling party is now 
besieged at home and abroad.  Under these conditions, the AKP will 
either continue with EU reforms or surrender to the status quo in 
order to continue benefiting from the blessings of being the ruling 
party.  The AKP is likely to choose the second option because the 
first one is too risky - it will cost the party support from certain 
circles.  So far, everything is understandable.  But how can you 
explain Erdogan and other AKP leaders' adoption of the MHP's 
political rhetoric (referring to his "Love it or leave it" comments 
during a recent visit to the southeast)?  Nevertheless, if the AKP 
refrains from making further reforms, it will soon see the beginning 
of its end." 
 
Editorial Commentary on U.S./Turkey 
 
Cengiz Candar wrote in liberal-intellectual Radikal: "A majority of 
the attendees during PM Erdogan's speech last Friday at the 
Brookings Institution think that Erdogan has become a bad political 
player since July 2007, particularly regarding the Kurdish issue. 
Turkey's approach to the Kurdish problem will have a direct impact 
on Washington, but Erdogan's speech last Friday at Brookings was not 
convincingly influential on this regard.  Thus, PM Erdogan's 
domestic democratic performance in the months ahead will be a key 
factor affecting the Obama administration's view of Turkey." 
 
TV News: 
CNN Turk 
 
Domestic News 
 
- A prosecutor in Istanbul has filed a lawsuit against 60 police, 
gendarme and prison officials linked to the death of activist Engin 
Ceber in prison.  The prosecutor demands life in prison for six 
guards,and 12-year prison sentences for the other suspects. 
 
- The owners of a hijacked Turkish ship said they'd begin on Tuesday 
'ransom talks' with the Somali pirates.  Somali pirates hijacked a 
Turkish flagged vessel, Karagol, off of Yemen last week. 
 
- Parliament's human rights committee will conduct "surprise 
inspections" in orphanages. 
 
ANKARA 00001996  004 OF 004 
 
 
 
International News 
 
- U.S. president-elect Barack Obama has promised to shut down the 
Guantanamo Bay detention camp. 
 
- The Taliban threatens to launch attacks in Paris unless France 
withdraws from Afghanistan. 
 
- The UN World Food Program (WFP) said around $840,000 worth of food 
destined for needy Afghans has been lost so far this year in 
attacks. 
 
SILLIMAN