VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #1587/01 3150932
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 100932Z NOV 08
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0326
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 8724
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0171

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 001587 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, 
U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news 
coverage November 8-10 on students' sit-in campaign in protest of 
the police's excessive use of force against demonstrators during the 
Taiwan visit of China's Association for Relations across the Taiwan 
Strait (ARATS) Chairman Chen Yunlin, and on the controversy over the 
protests led by the DPP during Chen Yunlin's stay in Taiwan. 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a column in the 
mass-circulation "Apple Daily" hailed Barack Obama's election as the 
President of the United States.  The column said, however, that 
Obama has daunting challenges to face.  An editorial in the 
pro-unification "United Daily News" harshly criticized United States 
President George W. Bush's legacy of the last eight years in the 
light of Barack Obama's election.  With respect to the 
U.S.-China-Taiwan relations, an editorial in the pro-independence, 
English-language "Taipei Times" expressed concern over the future 
cross-Strait and China policies of the Democratic Administration in 
the United State and the likely impact on Taiwan.  An op-ed in the 
"Taipei Times" projected several possible scenarios across the 
Taiwan Strait with deep worries and expressed hope that the United 
States would help preserve Taiwan's freedom.  End summary. 
 
¶3. U.S. Presidential Election 
 
A) "The Black People Have Stood Up" 
 
Columnist Antonio Chiang wrote in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" 
[circulation: 520,000] (11/10): 
 
"[Barack] Obama's story represents the journey of mankind's pursuit 
of freedom and equality.  The whole world felt indescribable 
excitement about his [Obama's] election.  This is not [just] a story 
of the United States; instead, it is a story of mankind.  However, 
in the real world, disappointment can be higher when expectation is 
high.  Obama is no exception. ... 
 
"The impact that Obama brings internationally will be bigger than 
domestically in the United States.  It is because, in the real 
world, it is far more difficult to accomplish things in domestic 
politics than in international politics. ... 
 
"What is advantageous to him [Obama] is that Iranian President 
[Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] and the terrorist group Al-Qaeda both have 
expectations of him and sent congratulatory messages to him after he 
was elected.  It will be Obama's great achievement if the Islamic 
world changes its views of the Untied States. 
 
"The black people's standing up is an indescribable encouragement to 
all underprivileged groups and minority races in the world who have 
dreamed of standing up.  Obama has become a hero who changed 
history.  However, there have been many heroes who have become 
cowards in a short time.  Obama's real challenges have not yet 
started!" 
 
B) "How a President Sank into the Ashes of History" 
 
The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] 
editorialized (11/9): 
 
"Obama's election as the President of the United States brought 
jubilation to almost the entire world.  The loneliest shadow 
offstage is not [that of] John McCain, who lost the election, but 
[of George W.] Bush, who is counting down and packing up in the 
White House.  Being in power for eight years, this cowboy head of 
state who was highly controversial left a poor legacy for himself; 
left all-red deficits for the United States economy; left his own 
party defeated; left his people with loss of confidence and of pride 
in being Americans; and left the people of the world with doubts, 
even cursing the United States. ... 
 
"At an interval of only four years, the same group of people who 
voted for Bush instead voted for a black President, Obama.  This is 
the phenomenon where things develop in the opposite direction when 
they become extreme.  If [we] want to talk about what contribution 
Bush made to the United States, this [opposite reaction] might be 
counted as one.  That is, after the sufferings of his [Bush's] eight 
years' of failure in governance, the ideas, including democracy, 
tolerance and honesty, that the American people have firmly held, 
finally breached the barrier of skin color." 
 
¶4. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations 
 
A) "Obama, His Aides and Taiwan's Future" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (11/8): 
 
"US president-elect Barack Obama completed his victory on Tuesday 
U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
night with a speech as stirring as it was carefully worded.  It 
would come as no surprise if his fine words moved as many people of 
other nations as the people of his own. ... 
 
"But the mechanics of Obama's foreign policy are yet to be 
enunciated. 
 
"Worse, the words and actions to date of Obama's aides with 
responsibilities for Taiwan and China sit very awkwardly - if not 
contradict outright - the inspiration and principles in his speech 
on Tuesday night. 
 
"The extent to which this situation should worry Taiwanese is 
limited by military and diplomatic reality in the Asia-Pacific 
region.  The received wisdom among hawks and doves alike is that US 
policy on Taiwan over the last 30 years has been remarkably stable 
and consistent, though under President George W. Bush there has been 
a subtle but unnerving change from 'acknowledging' to supporting 
China's claim to Taiwan. 
 
"Concerns that a Democratic Congress would erode Taiwanese interests 
may also be overstated given the marginal role it plays in executive 
operations. 
 
"To the incoming Obama administration, Taiwan's fate will likely 
fall under the radar for some time, and predicted overtures by 
Washington to Beijing could extend this period of superficial peace 
for as long as Zhongnanhai can behave itself. 
 
"China's agenda, however, requires this stability to end at the very 
moment that its strategy of coaxing Taiwan and offering economic 
inducements fails. 
 
"This moment is inevitable; the question is whether Obama will be 
prepared for it should it happen under [sic] his watch. 
 
"Supporters of Taiwanese democracy must have listened to Obama's 
invocation of Abraham Lincoln with a mixture of admiration and 
wistfulness.  Based on the evidence available, despite the warning 
signs from China and pro-China forces in Taiwan, and despite all the 
energy that hope can generate, no one can really say if an Obama 
administration would act to stop a Taiwanese government of the 
people, by the people and for the people from perishing." 
 
B) "Ma Is Handing Taiwan to China" 
 
Li Thian-hok, a freelance commentator based in Pennsylvania, opined 
in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] (11/10): 
 
"Taiwan's crisis is that it may fall under Chinese Communist Party 
rule by 2012, the year both President Ma Ying-jeou and Chinese 
President Hu Jintao's terms of office end. ... 
 
"Ma has claimed that the Taiwanese may enjoy 20 to 30 years of peace 
under a peace accord.  In reality the CCP can always violate the 
terms of the accord and decide to occupy the nation in short order. 
 
"Once the accord is executed, the US' Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) 
will automatically be abrogated, since Taiwan will formally become a 
part of the PRC, and the US and the Taiwanese will not have a chance 
to object through a referendum, since the current referendum law is 
designed to prevent a bona fide referendum. ... 
 
"The Taiwanese-American community needs to monitor the evolving 
situation in Taiwan and help pro-democracy activists in the 
frontline of the struggle.  We should keep the US informed of the 
rapidly developing crisis in Taiwan and ask Washington to help 
preserve Taiwan's freedom in accordance with the spirit of the TRA. 
At the very least, the US should take measures to prevent a 
holocaust from taking place on Taiwan." 
 
YOUNG